4 scenarios envision a world remade by COVID-19

Leaders at Deloitte and Salesforce virtually convened a band of eminent scenario planners to explore how the future may unfold over the next three to five years in the wake of the global pandemic.

Peter Schwartz, futurist, author, and senior vice president of strategic planning at Salesforce, has been honing his scenario-planning skills for five decades. His first book on the topic, The Art of the Long View, published in 1991, is acknowledged by scenario-planning disciples as a must-read.

That’s why Deloitte Consulting LLP managing director Andrew Blau turned to Schwartz in this time of unprecedented upheaval and uncertainty. The two also share a history, having worked together when Blau was president at Global Business Network (GBN), the consultancy Schwartz founded in 1987 before joining Salesforce in 2011.

“At Deloitte, we have been thinking about ways to help our clients respond to the crisis, lay the groundwork for recovery, and not just survive but thrive coming out of it,” says Blau. “Scenario planning naturally lends itself to this challenge. So I reached out to Peter, initially, and then we brought in others who share our passion for scenario planning. This was an opportunity for these scenario-planning heavy hitters to reconvene virtually in this extraordinary time to address the biggest challenge some of our organisations have ever faced.”

“Some in the group have worked together, off and on and in various configurations, for decades, including our colleagues from GBN – Stewart Brand, Kevin Kelly, and Katherine Fulton,” adds Schwartz. “Each of us was wrestling individually with this moment of maximum uncertainty – a moment that invites scenario thinking. Good scenario thinking is usually done in teams. This moment and our shared history brought us together.”

The result of this virtual collaboration is “The world remade by COVID-19,” published by Deloitte and Salesforce.

Early in the process, the team identified two fundamental drivers of uncertainty and then used them as the jumping-off point for the scenarios. According to Schwartz, those drivers are quite clear. “First is the pattern of disease progression – how rapidly it spreads, how immunity develops, and so on. Second is the global response to managing it – namely, the extent to which countries approach the pandemic either in cooperation or in competition,” he says.

This is not to suggest there aren’t many other uncertainties – for example, about health care system capacity, economic consequences, or the potential implications of longterm shelter-in-place restrictions – but these two rose to the top. “We decided that if we could track the possible trajectories of the disease and understand the effects of varying degrees of cooperation and collaboration among governments, then the scenarios would come together,” says Blau. And that’s what happened.

In the first story, called “The passing storm,” the virus is relatively contained, and the disease passes faster than people anticipate. Government action is fairly coordinated, reflecting a good amount of collaboration within and between countries. It’s still a storm, of course, and it leaves its impact, especially for smaller businesses and lower- and middle-income individuals, but inherent in this story is a sense of optimism that the peak is quickly approaching, a vaccine will come sooner rather than later, or a current drug is an effective treatment.

The second story, called “Good company,” relates a longer trajectory for the disease and higher impacts, with governments struggling more over time. What stands out in this scenario is that companies are rewarded with renewed trust because of the role they play in helping communities and economies rebuild. Trust will likely flow differently in the wake of the crisis; in the out-years of this story – three to five years from now – trust shifts from governments and public institutions toward corporations. Currently, some companies in tech, pharmaceuticals, and other sectors are helping communities address their most critical challenges.

The third scenario, “Sunrise in the east,” imagines a world in which the pandemic plays out for a longer period, and with very uneven recovery. China and some other East Asian countries manage the pandemic more effectively than other regions and come out of it more quickly. They lead in terms of collaboration in their health response and are better able to manage the disease. They demonstrate a highly effective level of coordination, which enables them to take the reins over time as a leading economic and political power. This scenario reflects some “pivot to Asia” trends that have emerged over the past decade – growing economic might in China, increased global influence in East Asian countries – and accelerates these trends as one possible effect of the pandemic. These countries come out of the pandemic stronger on the world stage and leading in international cooperation.

Finally, there’s the “Lone wolves” scenario, which envisions the pandemic going on longer than any are prepared for, and even accelerating. Government collaboration is uncoordinated and ineffective; the disease feels out of control. Countries respond by putting up new borders and shortening their supply lines. Even traditional allies turn against one another to secure their own populations. Having lost faith in their governments, citizens are vulnerable to demagoguery. This is a worst-case scenario – a prolonged pandemic with ineffective government action and a world of all against all, just in the name of security and safety.

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The potential consequences of these scenarios for companies will vary widely depending on their industry, geographic presence, workforces, and more. However, they offer a useful starting point for strategic conversations, starting with four questions aimed at acting now to lay the groundwork for sustainable performance and growth three to five years into the future:

• Which of your previous expectations need

to be rethought?

• What are the biggest threats to your cur

rent business in these worlds?

• Which scenario best describes the world your organisation appears to be preparing for?

• What would you need to do differently if

any of these scenarios becomes the future?