And now for something completely unexpected

One minute The Guardian/ICM polls – heck, all the polls – told us that the Conservatives and Labour were neck and neck and the next, exit polls revealed the unimaginable.

How all the pollsters got it so wrong is a debate for another time; it isn’t the key issue that has to be grappled with right now. The Conservative Party, led by David Cameron, has won a slim 12-seat majority in the UK general election. It may be a small majority, but the modus operandi in the UK has changed so significantly that this is now genuinely taken to be a huge and impressive victory. And, to be quite honest, it is impressive.

A political cataclysm of Shakespearean proportions ensued: a veritable blood bath. Ed Miliband is gone. Nick Clegg is done for. Nigel Farage will hopefully disappear into the ever-deepening annals of meme history (or maybe he’ll be back after his holiday on the coasts of Europe – no doubt perky, tanned and readily Europhobic). Bloody hell, that escalated quickly!

There are a few things that we can definitively conclude about this year’s election. There was engagement, and politics gained people’s attention; the proportion of young voters increased; voter turnout minimally increased to 67 per cent; the two-party system is potentially crumbling; ideology has been shaken to the core; the electoral system is a sham and continued membership of the EU is under greater threat than initially imagined. And, not so finally, the legitimacy of the Union, given the Scottish National Party’s triumph at the polls – from 6 seats to 56 – is still an open question.

The Leadership Race(s): Soul Searching

Labour: From the look and sound of it, the party is looking for less introspection and more action when it comes to deciding who is going to be the next Leader of the Opposition. Regardless, the race to the top will probably be far more gripping than it was 2010 – Mili-brothers mini-feud excepting. This is the party’s chance to elect a real face for change rather than the Gordon Brown 2.0 that Ed Miliband was considered by many to represent. Once again, the leadership campaign seems to be split between New-New Labour and Trade Union Labour. It will be interesting, taking into account Miliband’s failure to inspire the UK to vote for his party, whether they will stay his course or not. Three people have emerged as favourites to take the helm: Chuka Umunna (ex-Shadow Business Secretary), Andy Burnham (ex-Shadow Health Secretary) and Yvette Cooper (ex-Shadow Home Secretary).

Liberal Democrats: No one, not even poor hat-eating Paddy Ashdown, could have possibly foreseen that the Lib Dems would be this decimated at the polls: only eight of its MPs will be returning to the House of Commons. The Liberal Democrats will not really exist in British politics for a generation: the party is basically the bearer of a flickering ideology with limited, almost meaningless, representation. This is a desperately sad reality, not for Liberalism per se, but for the alternative voice that the Liberal Democrats have had in UK politics. They were relatively coherent, well-organised and reasoned. In fact, the leadership contest seems to be the least of their worries right now, as the party hangs on for dear life.

Farcically enough, under current rules any leadership contender would require the support of 10 per cent of the party’s MPs – that is less than one MP – so any contenders could nominate themselves. Four people have been suggested as potential leaders: Norman Lamb (ex-Minister for Social Care), Tim Farron (ex-President of the Lib Dems, refused a Cabinet post), Alistair Carmichael (ex-Scotland Secretary) and Tom Brake (ex-Deputy Leader of the House of Commons).

Nick Clegg, wobbly-lipped and red-eyed, made a compelling point in his resignation speech: “The politics of identity, of nationalism, of us versus them is now on the rise”. Let us hope that the new candidates will take note of this and be on the constructive, unifying side of history.

Brexit-ing

The big elephant on the campaign trail was the matter of future British membership of the EU. The Tories have called for a clear roadmap for negotiations, not simply on the relationship of the UK with the EU but also on reforming the EU generally. The campaign mainly focused on how to achieve economic recovery: a factor that was consistently tied to the failings of the Eurozone and the EU. Candidates – particularly within the Tory party and, of course, UKIP – often made Europe a scapegoat. Therefore, even if the EU was not being discussed, it was an implicit part of the conversation. It has been, and will be, an exhausting debate and, in my opinion, it is pretty damaging for the British government to persist in casting this shadow in the midst of a hobbling economic recovery.

A few weeks ago I wrote that I believed the way British people see the EU had changed for the better – that it was looking positive; there was, in fact, a jump in the polls in this regard. Obviously, now the validity of these polls has been called into question. The prospects are indeed worrying. Yes, Nigel Farage may not have managed to gain a seat in South Thanet and UKIP did lose a seat, but that didn’t stop the Party, whose raison d’être is campaigning to leave the EU, jumping from 950,000 votes to three million in a legislature and gaining second place in 118 constituencies across the country. This speaks volumes about the pulse of the UK on the matter. In addition, the Tory Party does have a deeply Eurosceptic faction that can no longer be quelled by David Cameron. The UK wants a referendum.

The upcoming referendum in 2017 is, however, a chance for parties to unite. David Cameron is a relatively moderate Prime Minister who will be campaigning to stay in a reformed EU (a difficult task, to say the least, considering his past performance in European fora). Does this mean that the UK will take active involvement in the EU? Will the referendum inspire more reasoned debate about Brussels and increased information circulation about the institutions?

Don’t even get me started on plans to leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). That would be catastrophic.

Reforming first past the post

Electoral reform is probably not imminent – it is as likely as turkeys celebrating Christmas for the House of Commons to change the system. No MPs in their right mind would actively give up their hold on power. First past the post is not just archaic but arguably deeply undemocratic. However, now more than ever, a lot more people are angry about it and they want something done. Whether public pressure will force the hand of the government in some way is doubtful.

I’ll let the numbers do the talking:

• The Tory vote share increased by 0.8 per cent: their seat gain was 24.

• The Green vote share increased by 2.8 per cent: their seat gain was zero.

• The UKIP vote share increased by 9.5 per cent, making their total vote share 12.5 per cent: they held onto one single seat.

• The Liberal Democrat’s total vote share was 7.9 per cent, they held on to eight seats. Is anyone any good at maths?

Fasten your seatbelts, UK: it’s going to be a bumpy ride

Can the Conservatives pull through on their one-nation, welfare-minded, egalitarian promises? Will the UK still be in the EU in two years’ time? To end on an eternal cliché: only time will tell. I’m not particularly hopeful at this point.