While some pat themselves on the back…

It’s been three weeks since the results of the local elections – three weeks in which Joseph Muscat felt he deserved to pat himself on the back even if many others, ranging from the man in the street to former Labour MP Joseph Cuschieri, thought otherwise

Labour played on home turf

Who were the people who voted? The election was neither national nor nationwide. The last time the more or less same group of localities voted was in 2012. It includes some large traditionally Labour-leaning places such as Paola and Qormi. Sliema, a large area that voted in 2012 and added a net 3,000 votes to the Nationalist column, did not hold an election this year

The 2012 result, a harbinger of what was to come in the general election the following year, saw a very strong showing for Labour and lower turnouts in localities in which the Nationalist Party was traditionally stronger.

In other words, on home turf where, the last time around, Labour won handily the same Party won again but not with the same solid majority it achieved in 2012.

Winning, with caveats

The devil, as always, is in the detail. There’s not only an obvious steep decline in Labour’s overall majority but, in addition, the Nationalist Party has made gains and the Labour Party has suffered damage in most localities in Malta, with the exception being Gozitan localities.

In addition, the fact that the local council elections were held with the hunting referendum worked to Labour’s advantage. It is no secret that the proportion of Labour-supporting hunters is three to four times bigger than the Nationalist Party’s share, so the mobilisation of hunters for the referendum could have served to extend rather than diminish Labour’s majority.

So if Labour was playing home and the spring hunting referendum indirectly served to further mobilise Labour supporters, it is not unreasonable to assume that the Nationalist Party has managed to narrow the gap because of a combination of factors, including some Nationalist Party supporters going back to their natural home after abandoning it in the last few years and disillusioned Labour supporters voting against their party.

The Gozitan factor

Of course, the results in Gozo are hardly what one would call encouraging for the Nationalist Party, and it has to take heed of the situation

Overall the spring hunting referendum must have had a greater impact on Gozo than on the other Maltese localities. However, one has to take into account the fact that, while Gozo is the largest of the 13 electoral districts, on average its localities tend to be smaller than those on the island of Malta. Without, of course, ignoring the result, this means that in local elections in Gozo it could be a dozen votes (and I literally mean “a dozen”) which sway the outcome in a particular area.

Then there is the Giovanna Debono factor. Giovanna has been a Nationalist Party stalwart in Gozo for the last quarter of a century or so. She has already declared that she will not contest the next election but she nonetheless remains a target of Labour’s venomous attacks, as if to make sure that she does not consider a comeback. It seems as if the idea of her return still sends shivers down their collective spines. But as the lady seems resolute in her stance, the Labour Party should not need to worry – even if this is not to say that the Nationalist Party should not think of ways on how to fill the great void she will leave behind.

Cautious optimism and arrogant smirks

Simon Busuttil sounded a note of cautious optimism following the result. Yet, Joseph Muscat’s reaction was a triumphalist smirk and a snide comment. Somebody from Labour did call the Emperor ‘naked’. Joseph Cuschieri, the former MP who gave up his seat so that Muscat could enter the House in 2008, said it was evident that Labour had lost ground in most localities and that it was about time that the Party stopped underestimating Simon Busuttil. Remember, that’s from someone who has been massively short- changed for his efforts by Muscat.

The road is long

Once the necessary legislation is enacted, the next local elections will not be held before 2019. This means that the next electoral appointment is the 2018 general election. There’s almost three years to go and, considering that a week is a long time in politics, a lot can happen before then.

One thing is sure: the Nationalist Party has shown its first signs of recovery, whilst Labour has suffered its first losses. Of course, the leadership of the Nationalist Party has to keep both its feet on the ground, as the road is still a long one.