Brexit: approaching a cliff edge scenario

which, ultimately, means that they have to be registered and owned by EU nationals. Not surprisingly, Ryanair has recently signed up with the Maltese government to register its Malta Air subsidiary and transfer 200 employees on to the Malta payroll in anticipation of such regulations.

We are all aware that the UK has only a short period – up to 31st October – to decide whether to accept the deal or leave without one. If it leaves without a deal, the UK will cancel all ties with the EU immediately, with no transition period and no guarantees regarding citizens’ rights of residence. With all the events currently happening, a no-deal Brexit is more likely and this is the worst scenario for the United Kingdom. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that he wants a deal, but has refused to enter into talks until the EU has changed what he called the “undemocratic backstop” – the mechanism to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland that could keep the UK in a customs union.

The border is a matter of great political, security and diplomatic sensitivity in Ireland. With the signing of the Good Friday Agreement almost 20 years ago, it was agreed that there should be no physical checks or infrastructure at the Belfast frontier. That is where the backstop comes in – as a last resort – to maintain a seamless border in Ireland. This has been interpreted by Eurosceptics in the Tory Party as a yoke intended to retain a close relationship with the European Union for an indefinite period. period of uncertainty. The devaluation of the pound will certainly have a negative impact on the cost of living. Some argue that a practical solution to the impasse would be an early election, with one option being that the Prime Minister would call an early poll to win more seats for the Conservatives.

At the moment, the Tory (Conservative) Party has a majority of just one seat in the House of Commons. MPs could try to force an election when Parliament resumes on 3 September through a Vote of No Confidence. For this to succeed, a majority of MPs would need to vote in favour – which would involve some of the Conservatives voting against their own government.

During the next 14 days, the government could try to persuade MPs to change their opinion or other Parties might come to form an alternative government. If nothing is resolved, a general election is then automatically triggered and campaigning begins. The Prime Minister could try to delay matters so that the election would not take place before Brexit day.

The government is to set aside £2.1bn on preparations for Brexit – the aim of such a cash injection being to enhance the processing of passport applications and increase training for Customs staff. They will also add 500 border officials to the 500 already promised this year. Some of the money will go to ensuring the continuity of vital medication and medical products. Around £140m is allocated to a public awareness campaign to help and support Britons living abroad, including Northern Ireland.

Party apologists say that such heavy allocations are a ploy to show the EU that the UK is indeed ready and willing to leave without a deal. Is there any logic in such a ‘loselose’ scenario? The Labour Party says that such allocations are “an appalling waste of tax-payers’ cash” at a time when the economy is fragile and weak. John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor, even said that the government could eliminate a no-deal and instead spend these billions of pounds on hospitals, school and – in the end – people.

Why did the UK end up in such a mess? Can further talks between the Parties be furtively carried out before the die is cast? Many politicians are against a no-deal Brexit and, of course, 48 per cent of the British electorate voted to remain. What boosts the fear of a nodeal Brexit is that the Prime Minister – in his gung-ho style – has pledged to leave the EU by the deadline, with or without a deal. As a damage limitation tactic, he is guaranteeing vast sums of money to prepare the country for the Armageddon pill.

There are still a few months left before Halloween and, sadly, Malta has been a laggard in its preparation for the eventual business disruption. It is ironic that, during the silly season, reporters are more focused on the ‘Invictus’ tattoo delectably revealed on our Prime Minister’s biceps rather than the dark clouds looming over the horizon.