Forecasting – Algorithms or simple intuition? Are we really capable of planning tourism sustainably?

In this next analysis of the Tourism Strategy (2021-2030) there are three obvious keywords that standout, (or jump out at you if you are really on the ball!), these are: Managing, Quality and Focus on what is best. Unfortunately, once again, we are using

Even now, while we are talking about: “The National Tourism Policy to 2020, which came to an end last year, was guided by three fundamental principles, namely:

• Managing visitor numbers

• Raising the level of Quality across the entire tourism value chain

• Reducing Seasonality

We are already rearing to reopen tourism and repeat our mistakes from the years before 2020. Can we make an effort and try to understand what it actually means to Manage visitor numbers; it means applying a carrying capacity that will bring maximum benefit to all stakeholders, a quality activity and a better destination; it does not mean adding numbers to the previous years to break all records!

At least there is honesty in the statement that “quality service across the board continues to be an aspiration rather than a given”. Indeed we speak of quality but we deliver quantity, at least that is the “aspiration of the politician and businessperson today – actually killing the goose that lays the golden eggs! We need to define what we mean by quality service, how we can deliver this and how we can manage it

Another admission by the authorities: “For Maltese tourism to recover and re-develop within the principles embraced by this Strategy it is necessary to recognise this situation and address it in a way which adapts to these new realities. There is evidence of declining visitor satisfaction due to weaknesses in the direct and indirect tourism product. Notwithstanding significant investment, certain zones continue to suffer from years of neglect.”

Where were you all in the last six years as construction and infrastructure turned these islands into a concrete jungle? Where were you when the island was turned into one permanent building site? Indeed where were you when, as the government, you had the right and the duty to control this act of institutionalised vandalism? And now you turn round and say we need to “recover and redevelop”; yes, indeed this is what we need but we need an integrated approach to tourism planning for this to work, we need to adopt the Calvia model for planning and development and we need Commitment, Trust and Synergy rather than lethargy, ignorance (as in ignoring the realities) and putting economics before the socio-cultural needs of the country.

When you talk about numbers again… “2030 suggests an optimistic maximum of 3 to 3.2 million tourists generating an average 21 million overnight stays.” Where did this come from? What scientific algorithm did we use to calculate this? As you state in the strategy: “Malta will not be able to build a sustainable tourism industry if its tourism priorities are led principally by incremental bed-stock. We need to focus on what is best for the country, the economy and the host population.” Get on with the integrated approach and real consultation for this!

When will it be safe and responsible to reopen tourism and how? I invite all readers to download this strategy and follow the analysis with me, comment and let us work together on achieving a real integrated tourism policy together – after all we all deserve sustainable, responsible and better quality tourism for these islands and we are one of the key stakeholders in this activity.