Twists, turns, but everything stays the same
After a long and gruelling season – drawn out after someone misplaced the World Cup – the Premier League campaign finally comes to an end this afternoon.
For the vast majority of the clubs there is little left to play for today other than pride. The title, Champions League and Europa League places are all sown up and only Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur fans will be vaguely excited about that Conference League slot.
But for three teams this afternoon will be all about trying to ensure this isn’t their last top-flight match for at least a year.
We already know Southampton will be dropping down a division next season. But there are, somewhat unusually, still two other places in the Championship up for grabs; and three teams desperately trying not to claim them.
Of that trio, Everton are in pole position to escape relegation. They have a twopoint cushion over both Leicester City and Leeds United, so their fate is very much in their own hands. If Everton beat Bournemouth at home this afternoon they will live to fight another Premier League day. Simple as that.
And, for any team going into a final day battle for survival, knowing your fate is in your own hands is pretty much the best you can ask for.
However, if Everton lose, or even draw, then the other two will know that victories could well be enough to keep them up. Leicester, despite having the season from hell, are capable of conjuring up a win over a West Ham United side that have little to play for and who have a European final to look forward to. While the idea of Leeds beating an inconsistent and occasionally rubbish Spurs is not beyond the realms of possibility either.
In the latter case, however, it would need to be a handsome victory given Everton’s superior goal difference.
To be honest, this final day relegation battle is nowhere near as exciting as I thought it was going to be just a few weeks ago. At that point, half the division were in with a realistic shout of going down.
But the likes of Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Wolverhampton Wanderers and West Ham have strung together enough results to go into the last day with nothing but their summer holidays to look forward to.
So when the dust settles around 7pm tonight, which of the three scrambling to stay afloat will end up with their heads above water?
While it wouldn’t be my personal preference, I suspect it is Everton that will survive. The combination of results needed for either Leicester or Leeds to beat the drop just seem a tiny bit too unlikely.
The latter two may well – backed by vociferous crowds – snatch the victories they need. But I think Everton will as well.
So the table you are looking at now as you chew on your croissants and sip your frappuccinos, is probably how it will finish at the end of play.
There may be a few moments of drama over the course of this last 90 minutes, and one or two tiny twists, but it’s the Evertonians who will have the last laugh.
The good and The greaT
Brighton and Hove Albion have secured European football for the first time in their history and their manager must take an awful lot of credit for that achievement.
Irrespective of how I may feel about the way everyone insists on gushing over Roberto de Zerbi (it genuinely makes me uneasy) I am only too happy to acknowledge the man deserves praise for guiding his team to an historic finish.
As I have said repeatedly, I am reserving judgement on the Italian for now. I still believe the foundations for his success were laid before he got there.
But that doesn’t mean he isn’t going to push on from here and prove he actually is the best managerial thing since sliced pizza.
How Brighton perform next season, with the added strain of European football, and after possibly losing one or two key players over the summer, should give us a clearer indication of de Zerbi’s true talents.
If he hasn’t been head-hunted by a Champions League team by then, of course.
Meanwhile, a little further up the table, a certain Pep Guardiola also deserves a resounding pat on the back.
When you consider Manchester City were eight points behind Arsenal not that long ago, the fact that they are likely to finish the season at least eight points ahead of their title rivals is truly remarkable.
As I have mentioned before, I suspected Arsenal would end up throwing it away based purely on their inexperience. But I honestly didn’t expect the final gap to be so emphatic.
The incredible string of victories that powered City to the title will probably make this one of Pep’s most satisfying crowns. But he won’t dwell on it for long, because he will be well aware that, after today, he is just 180 minutes away from turning a good season into an incredible one.
If he can guide his team to victory over Manchester United in the FA Cup final and then follow that up with a win over Inter in the Champions League, he will have achieved something truly special.
While his opponents in those competitions will no doubt be looking to halt the treble bandwagon before it crosses the finishing line, I’m not seeing either of them being capable of stopping this City team when it’s in its stride.
So it does very much like the treble is on the way, and Pep will have added another remarkable achievement to his already astonishing managerial career.
If he keeps this up, one day he might be as good as de Zerbi...
“There may be a few moments of drama over the course of this last 90 minutes, and one or two tiny twists, but it’s the Evertonians who will have the last laugh
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