How would a Muscat MEP bid impact undecided voters?

Muscat’s presence likely to drive PL supporters to vote but would spur apathy among undecided PN voters

Around one in every three undecided Labour voters would be moved to vote if Joseph Muscat were to run for an MEP seat, a Times of Malta poll indicates.

And rather than spur undecided Nationalists into action, a Muscat run could put many PN voters off voting even more, results suggest.

A quarter of voters who chose Labour in the 2022 general election have either decided to abstain in June or are still unsure about what to do come June 8.

When asked what they would do if Muscat were to run, 32% said that would encourage them to go ahead and cast a vote.

Almost half of undecided Labour voters said it would not change their voting intentions, however, and slightly more than a tenth, 10.8%, said it would put them off voting even more.

Muscat – a former prime minister and one-time MEP who is adored and disliked in equal measure – has acknowledged that he is mulling a return to politics in the June European Parliament elections.

Many voters remain undecided about who to vote for, with 46% of respondents saying they still do not know who their preferred candidate is.

But Muscat’s draw remains clear. Although he has not declared an MEP run, 3.5% still cited him unprompted, making him the third-most-popular candidate after Roberta Metsola and Alex Agius Saliba.

Times of Malta will be releasing full details about the candidates cited by respondents and their respective shares tomorrow.

An internal Labour poll last month indicated that at least 20,000 of the party’s voters who intend to abstain or remain unsure about voting would go to the polls if Muscat were to be on the ballot sheet.

The Times of Malta poll suggests Muscat running would also drive a deeper wedge between many disenchanted voters and the ballot box: while 16.5% across the country irrespective of party affiliation or age say it would encourage them to vote, 20% say a Muscat bid would put them off voting even more.

Many undecided or reluctant voters – 42% – say Muscat’s participation would not be enough to make them change their mind one way or the other, while one-fifth refused to answer the question or said they did not know how to feel about it.

Muscat is especially unpopular among young voters, the data suggests: 31 per cent of those aged 16-24 said they would be further disinclined to vote if he were to run.

He also appears to have few fans among undecided voters aged 55-64: 45% of those also said they would be even less likely to vote if he were to run.

“Muscat is especially unpopular among young voters

Muscat’s popularity, on the other hand, is significantly higher among the middle-aged. Two-thirds of those undecided voters said that they would be encouraged to vote if Muscat were to run.

Interestingly, more than half (54%) of respondents who voted PN in the 2022 general election said Muscat’s name on the ballot would put them off voting even more while 19% declared it would encourage them to vote.

The survey, carried out by market research firm Esprimi between February 27 and March 12, was the first Times of Malta survey that asked respondents specifically about their voting intentions in the upcoming European Parliament and local council elections in June.

It found the gap between Malta’s two major parties has widened to 13.1 per cent, translating into a roughly 33,800-vote margin in favour of Labour.