The golden average: Ulaanbaatar’s 24 seats in Parliament
This week is the deadline for Parliament to finalize the election day and their choice of poll equipment to assist vote counting and other necessary work. The most important decision is the number of constituencies and representation, or mandates, allocated to regions nationwide.
Earlier this week, the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) agreed on these numbers, which means this will be approved as it is in Parliament today due to MPP being able to approve laws in Parliament singlehandedly because of their overwhelming majority.
Just as predicted, MPP reduced the number of parliamentary representations for Ulaanbaatar to 24, with the remaining 54 representation allocated to provinces. It seems the history of political party in power making up their own rules of election play is repeating itself. The maximum number of representations allocated to Ulaanbaatar in the past seven parliamentary elections was 28, the minimum was 20. MPP has reduced it by four, and has therefore “forfeited” from their successes in the past four years.
In truth, Ulaanbaatar definitely deserves much more than 28 seats since nearly half the country’s population residing in the capital, with more people moving into the city every day.
...The 24 representations Ulaanbaatar got allocated today becomes the median between the 20 allocated in 1992 and 2008 and the 28 allocated in 2012...
With the 24 representations for Ulaanbaatar decided by MPP, representatives from the capital city will represent less than a third of members in Parliament from 2020 to 2024.
However, the majoritarian system of election Mongolia previously implemented in 1992 and 2008 had 20 representations for the capital. The 2012 Parliament was elected through a mixed electoral system, and 48 of the members were elected through a majoritarian system, 28 of which were from Ulaanbaatar.
The 24 representations Ulaanbaatar got allocated today becomes the median between the 20 allocated in 1992 and 2008 and the 28 allocated in 2012. This means despite the reduced number of representation from Ulaanbaatar this election, it is not as drastic a change as some have been led to believe.
But there are many cases of political parties becoming “victims” to the laws they concocted for themselves.
MPP devised the 2008 election which resulted in 39 seats for them, then organized the mixedelection system in 2012 that got them a meager minority of 26 seats in Parliament. Likewise, the thenmajority Democratic Party (DP) came up with a plan they believed would be a winning combination for them in the 2016 parliamentary elections – but they only ended up with nine seats, which later became as two members were kicked out of the party. What’s worse, they had “intentionally” increased the representation in Ulaanbaatar and were called out by MPP by doing so.
At the time, MPP members said DP added more representation to Ulaanbaatar because DP tends to get more votes from the capital city. But in fact, only three of the nine seats they got in Parliament were from Ulaanbaatar.
Right now, DP is now accusing MPP of doing the same – MPP had seemingly increased representation in the countryside at the cost of lesser representation in Ulaanbaatar – and DP members are now accusing MPP of doing this because of MPP’s history of earning more votes in rural areas.
We will find out this summer if the provinces do like voting for MPP.
The current lineup of constituencies differs in a few ways compared to 2016. Two of the largest and most populous districts in Ulaanbaatar, Songinokhairkhan and Bayanzurkh, had their representation reduced by one, dropping to four each. Chingeltei, Sukhbaatar and Bayangol also lost one representation each, to become three for each. These seats were then alloted to rural areas, namely GoviAltai, Bulgan, Sukhbaatar and Dundgovi provinces, which will elect two Parliament members each this time.
Smaller districts of Baganuur, Nalaikh and Bagakhangai – remote districts, as they are called – were combined to form one constituency with two representations. Previously, these districts were combined with Bayangol, Chingeltei and Sukhbaatar districts in Ulaanbaatar. The division of subdistricts to constituencies will become definitive in the coming days, and will invariably change the allegiance of politicians from one group of people to another.
For provinces, due to the low population Dundgovi Province, its constituency was combined with Govisumber Province. Previously, the latter province’s constituency had been combined with Dornogovi Province. This time, Dornogovi will form its own constituency with two representations in Parliament.
Reducing the number of representations in Ulaanbaatar is not exactly new. From a political perspective, Parliament members who had been “feeding” their own constituencies in Ulaanbaatar in the past four years must feel like a hornet that had its nest struck down. There are rumors of these particular members aiming for and even already traveling in rural provinces to gain support, as there’s no longer any “use” serving their current constituencies. There are many politicians who also somewhat turned away from their own constituencies upon the news that the province will now represent two members.
They will be left with nothing if they chase two rabbits. Everything will be clear once constituencies are set and campaigns begin.