BOT pours cold wa­ter on ex­port view

The Myanmar Times - Weekend - - International Business - NOVEM­BER 2, 2018

THE Bank of Thai­land has grown more pes­simistic about the prospects of achiev­ing its ex­port growth fore­cast of 9pc this year as the in­ten­si­fy­ing trade dis­pute be­tween the world’s top economies damp­ens global de­mand.

Ex­port value con­trac­tion in Septem­ber was be­yond the cen­tral bank’s cur­rent fore­cast and full-year growth could be slower than pro­jected, said Porn­pen Sod­srichai, di­rec­tor of eco­nomic anal­y­sis at the Bank of Thai­land.

Oc­to­ber’s read­ing will pro­vide clar­ity, she said.

“The [cen­tral bank] es­ti­mates ex­port growth for this year at 9pc, while it grew 8.1pc for the first nine months of the year,” Ms Porn­pen said. “To achieve the fore­cast, ex­ports need to grow 11.4pc, which is con­sid­ered a chal­leng­ing fig­ure, for the fi­nal quar­ter.”

Given the high-base ef­fect, year-on-year ex­port growth in Oc­to­ber likely de­clined from Septem­ber’s level.

Pay­ment-based ex­ports dipped 5.5pc year-on-year in Septem­ber on a mix of neg­a­tive fac­tors, in­clud­ing the Us-china re­tal­ia­tory tar­iffs and a high com­par­a­tive base.

The over­all con­trac­tion was also at­trib­uted to ac­cel­er­ated ex­ports of cars to Aus­tralia in ear­lier pe­ri­ods and the tem­po­rary dis­rup­tion of goods trans­port to trad­ing part­ners, par­tic­u­larly Ja­pan, the Philip­pines and Hong Kong, due to nat­u­ral dis­as­ters.

More­over, the high-base ef­fect stem­ming from last year’s surge in ex­ports of mo­bile phones from the launch of new mod­els, plus ac­cel­er­ated ship­ment of so­lar cells and wash­ing ma­chines be­fore the US safe­guard mea­sures were put in place, weak­ened ex­ports.

In Septem­ber, Thai­land’s over­all ship­ments to China con­tracted 14.1pc from a year ear­lier.

An­other key engine driv­ing the Thai econ­omy, tourism, also ta­pered off in Septem­ber, with for­eign ar­rivals reg­is­ter­ing mod­er­ate growth of 2.1pc year-onyear.

For­eign tourist growth de­clined to 1.9pc in the Septem­ber quar­ter from 8.4pc and 15.5pc in the sec­ond and first quar­ters, re­spec­tively, due to a de­cline in Chi­nese ar­rivals.

With the slower growth pace of for­eign ar­rivals and the ex­port con­trac­tion, the econ­omy in Septem­ber ex­panded at a slower pace from the pre­vi­ous month.

Pos­i­tive mo­men­tum in Septem­ber was sup­ported by do­mes­tic de­mand from both pri­vate con­sump­tion and in­vest­ment, as well as pub­lic spend­ing.

Ms Porn­pen said the cen­tral bank will mon­i­tor eco­nomic mo­men­tum for the rest of the year.

– Bangkok Post

Face­book’s stock climbed $4.07, or 2.8 per­cent, to $150.29 in afterhours trad­ing. The stock had closed at $146.22, down 17 per­cent year-to-date. – The Wash­ing­ton Post, AP

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