Swapo at a crossroads
… marks 64th anniversary with eye on elections
The Swapo Party is at a crossroads, with its leader Vice President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah facing her sternest test yet.
For the first time, Swapo will have a female presidential candidate for the highest office in the land, despite some party bigwigs still hellbent on their calls for an extraordinary congress to identify a presidential candidate.
How she navigates this internal storm and regain support they lost in 2019 will determine how they perform at the national polls later this year, local analysts predict.
But after 64 years of existence, 34 of which were spent in governance, Swapo’s evolution over the last six decades is a mixed bag of hits and misses, if commentary by pundits is anything to go by.
While Swapo is credited with having successfully mobilised the masses to fight the repugnant apartheid regime in the war for selfdetermination, some now say the party is fast becoming a shadow of its former self.
Founded on 19 April 1960, Swapo has been hailed for liberating the country, ensuring national reconciliation and placing the nation on a path to achieve economic emancipation.
Swapo has also been praised for efforts to promote economic emancipation, and development programmes have helped many Namibians improve their living standards. Furthermore, Swapo’s dedication to democracy and the rule of law also serves as a model for other regional political parties, Nandi-Ndaitwah said in her anniversary message to her comrades last Friday.
“It is shaped by the unwavering desire of the brave sons and daughters of our motherland in the quest for true and genuine freedom and self-determination,” She said.
Nandi-Ndaitwah used the opportunity to reiterate Swapo’s commitment to improve service delivery and people’s socio-economic fortunes.
She also urged Namibians to rally behind Swapo once more during November’s Presidential and National Assembly elections.
“Unity in diversity is a cornerstone for the Swapo Party, through which sustainable development can be realised. Therefore, let us remain united in order to achieve a resounding victory in the upcoming elections to enable us to continue with our national development agenda uninterrupted,” Nandi-Ndaitwah said.
She added: “We are humbled by the continued confidence of the Namibian people in the Swapo Party, an honour and trust we have never and shall never take for granted, but to remain of service to our people, the sovereigns”.
She continued: “I therefore call upon Swapo members, supporters and sympathisers to remain in contact with our people to explain to them why they should continue to trust the Swapo Party. In fact, the Electoral Commission of Namibia has launched the calendar, the campaign has started, and we must all be hard at work. Victory is ours”.
Liberation
Over the years, Africa has witnessed the rise and fall of liberation movements.
Some liberation movements are no longer in government, while others are facing existential threats from the opposition and the general public, including the African National Congress in neighbouring South Africa, which is expected to fall below 50% in their upcoming elections.
When it comes to Swapo, however, various political scientists have projected mixed results.
While some are of the opinion that Swapo might suffer the same fate as the ANC, there are those who feel Swapo’s well-oiled political machinery and dedicated supporters are likely to contribute to its election success at the polls this year.
“For starters, Swapo’s involvement in rescuing Namibia from colonial domination is an enormous accomplishment that should not be overlooked – and following independence, the party’s dedication to national reconciliation contributed to the country’s unity and stability – it has made it stand out from other political parties,” said political analyst Wade Henckert.
Litmus test
However, he acknowledged that the party may face growing competition from opposition parties, which have gained traction in recent years.
He said while Swapo has achieved a great deal of progress, there are several concerns that may dissuade Namibians from supporting the party in the approaching elections.
One such issue, Henckert said, is the impression that some within the ruling party are corrupt, as well as a lack of openness in government institutions.
Other issues, such as high levels of unemployment, poverty and inequality, might keep the electorate from voting for Swapo.
“Some have criticised Swapo’s handling of land reform and housing concerns, accusing the party of partiality and ineffective land transfer plans. Overall, these challenges illustrate areas where Swapo may have failed to deliver on its promises, and where reforms are required to reclaim the electorate’s trust,” he added.
Different Swapo
Juxtaposing the Swapo of yesteryear to its current state, political commentator Ndumba Kamwayah said the two Swapos are miles apart.
According to him, Swapo has fewer achievements worthy of celebration and emulation in terms of human development.
The Swapo of today, he said, is not the same as the Swapo that liberated the country.
“Of course, some veterans have left with rich history, while others joined other political parties – and because of the division, the party is no longer united as the old Swapo that liberated the country,” Kamwanyah asserted.
Like other liberation movements, Swapo’s continued dominance is not cast in stone, he said.
“The electorate has done it in Zambia, and we are expecting the same scenario to happen in South Africa’s upcoming election this May. The outcome will be a proxy for us in terms of how Namibians are going to vote. But even if we did not wait for South Africa, with the 2019 and 2020 elections, we have seen the reduction in Swapo, and that will happen in the upcoming election,” he said.
“It will be a miracle if Swapo returns its support base. Swapo will definitely lose votes, and that’s the same thing we are expecting from the South African election. People are tired; they no longer vote because of history. People are voting based on issues that affect their own lives. The party had 34 years to empower and improve people’s lives and now people are questioning, in terms of service delivery, what the party has achieved. Those are some of the issues that are going to impact how people are going to vote,” Kamwanyah said.