Final chapter on Trump’s future not written yet
GAITHERSBURG, MD: Former president Donald J. Trump was acquitted, 57 v. 43, of the charge of incitement of insurrection of the 6 January 2021 mob assault on the U.S. Capitol, following a five-day Senate trial that climaxed Saturday, 13 February 2021.
Though the acquittal verdict conformed to what most political observers at home and abroad had predicted, it is not as though Trump – or the Grand Old (Republican) Party, for that matter – has emerged through the political hurly-burly completely unscathed or smelling roses.
NOT UNSCATHED
While Trump is still eligible to run for president in 2024, if he so chooses, it is plain that the brilliant presentation by impeachment managers of their case during the high voltage Senate drama – mainly through powerful, graphic new videos of Trump supporters, including wearing Make America Great Again hats and waving Trump banners while ransacking the Capitol, the very symbol of American democracy – should cost Trump not only independent voters in the future, but possibly moderates among Republican voters as well, if not those of his base. Before going further, a bunch of some other relevant details should be mulled over. They include the fact that seven GOP senators broke party ranks and voted to convict Trump, in what is thus far the most bipartisan political demonstration of its kind in the Senate. A year ago, at the first Trump impeachment trial which also failed to convict him, there was only one GOP Senator who showed the gumption to do so: to wit, Senator Mitt Romney of Utah. This time around, Romney had six other GOP Senate colleagues joining him.
That aside, it may be recalled that in the House of Representatives’ endeavour a month ago, the resolution to impeach Trump passed, 232 to 197. At that time, 10 GOP House representatives joined 222 of their Democratic colleagues to secure its adoption.
Thus, while a small, but growing - now, ten plus seven – wedge of GOP lawmakers has publicly crossed the Rubicon, so to speak, on the Trump issue, the third-ranking GOP Representative Liz Cheney who voted for impeachment in the House, secured a resounding 14561 victory 4 February, when in the House she was internally challenged by Trump loyalists keen to punish her for supporting impeachment.
Moreover, the determined bid by GOP biggies to, initially, block the Senate from taking up the impeachment trial failed, as six GOP Senators joined 50 of their Democratic colleagues to proceed with the Trump Senate trail. The subsequent 56-44 vote in the Senate on the question, thus set the precedent that an impeachment trial of a former president is not unconstitutional, as those who had wished to cancel the trial had argued.
It may be germane to recall that while the Senate impeachment trial took place when Trump had already quit the White House, the move to impeach him in the House occurred while he was still the incumbent president. What may also be usefully recalled is that the then GOP Senate leader, Senator Mitch McConnell, had, via procedural legerdemain, effectively prevented the House article of impeachment from being formally discussed in the Senate until after Trump left office!
McConnell, explaining his 13 February vote not to convict Trump, oddly enough, not only agreed that the prosecution managers had done an excellent job of establishing Trump’s culpability for inciting the 6 January insurrection but went on to remind one and all of the very real possibility of his being prosecuted, as a private citizen, for a bunch of criminal offenses presently under review. (Fundamentally, the Senate trial was a political exercise, with its 100 member-Senators serving as the jury, not to be confused with a normal court of law. Besides, 67 votes, not a simple majority, were required for conviction.)
He, incidentally, hinted that that Trump could even face criminal prosecution for the events surrounding the 6 January riot/assault on the U.S. Capitol, while underlining that Trump was “practically and morally responsible” for provoking the violence. He darkly reminded that FBI’s investigations into the 6 January mob attack on the U.S. Capitol was on-going and hinted that it could throw up all manner of surprises.
Revealing, too, are the seminal observations made by GOP Governor of Maryland Larry Hogan to CNN’s Jake Tapper, the other day: “I think the final chapter of Donald Trump and where the Republican Party goes hasn’t been written yet. And I think we’re going to have a real battle for the soul of the Republican Party over the next couple of years.” FINAL CHAPTER NOT WRITTEN
Notably, while the New York Times has recently reported that, since the 6 January riots, increasing numbers of GOP voters have migrated to the Democratic Party, TV political gurus and media talking heads inform that the divide in the GOP grows, spurred over such basic questions as what the future direction of the party ought to be.
And although South Carolina GOP Senator Lindsay Graham and Trump acolyte have just been reported as disclosing Trump is “excited” about the 2022 mid-term election, on the other, Nikky Haley, former South Carolina governor and ex-American Ambassador to the United Nations, breaking with Trump, in an interview with Politico Magazine published last week, declared that “the party needed to acknowledge that Trump let them down.” Haley asserted: “He went down a path he shouldn’t have and we shouldn’t have followed him, and we shouldn’t have listened to him.”
So, what does Trump do now? Does he launch himself fully into party affairs reminding his supporters and his critics that the impeachment trails are over but the next election approaches – as Graham’s disclosure seems to suggest. Or, does he stick around his private clubs and golf course, first checking the pulse of the party and the temperature of other relevant political developments before finally deciding which way to jump?
Trump has called the trial “yet another phase of the biggest witch hunt in the history of our nation”, suggesting that he would like to continue to play a role in U.S. politics, as in his words, “our historic, patriotic, and beautiful movement to Make America Great Again has only just begun.”
Beyond Trump, the GOP plainly needs to end its current flirtation with extremist fringe elements/ideology not least because Trump’s pile of legal problems postimpeachment trial could suddenly and massively explode, torpedoing his political ambitions, besides blowing up his stillrampant ego.
Alternatively, the GOP could conceivably split into two halves: composed one of a traditional party pushing conservative values and principles and the other a rambunctious splinter grouping of cult worshippers genuflecting to the likes of Trump. In whatever circumstances Trump escaped conviction in the Senate impeachment trial, he is bound to go down in history, as a CNN analyst would have it, “as a disgraced figure who escaped conviction on a technicality after a trial that undeniably proved that he endangered his own vice president, lawmakers, in both parties, and scores of police officers, as he sought to overturn the election results.”
It is also notable that former vice president Mike Pence, a potential contender for the GOP nomination in 2024, has stayed conspicuously silent, choosing not to openly criticize Trump but also choosing not to offer Trump political cover as it became clear that the way Trump endangered his vice president on 6 January was one of the issues that weighed most heavily on GOP Senators during the trial.
Apart from what Trump’s political plans are and how the ‘struggle for the party’s soul’ will play out in the weeks and months ahead leading to the 2022 mid-terms, to begin with, it is incumbent to note what President Biden has had to say, post the Trump acquittal.
In pithy public remarks, President Biden declared: “While the final vote did not lead to conviction, the substance of the charge is not in dispute. This sad chapter in our history has reminded us democracy is fragile. That must always be defended; that we must be ever vigilant; that violence and extremism has no place in America.” Though the Trump Senate trial understandably dominated the news the past week, there have been other important developments in other domains, including in the area encompassing the Biden work agenda. High on the list of priorities of the Biden administration is his declared determination to push Congress to act quickly on his $ 1.9 Trillion Covid-19 relief plan as also to secure early Senate endorsement for a stilllongish list of Cabinet nominations.
Biden has recently secured commitment for the supply of additional 200 million doses of Covid-19 vaccinations by the end of July: 100 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine and 100 doses of the Moderna vaccine.
As per the Center for Disease Control, 10 percent of Americans have received their first dose; while 3 percent are now fully vaccinated. Presently, 1.5 million people are getting vaccinated every day. Just today, media reported that a study has identified seven new virus strains in the United States.
The other key metrics for the pandemic here in America are as indicated: There have been over 27 million cases of infection, with a total number in fatalities nearing the halfmillion mark. And while over 70 million vaccines have been distributed, vaccines have been administered to over 52 million people.
One can sense that although there is still a long way to go in approaching near herd-immunity, there is now a belief that America will get there – particularly without the distraction of a Trump who had simply no clue about the disease or any interest in seriously coming to grips with it.