*Nepal *Afghanistan *Thailand *Myanmar

Democracy in Nepal: Not Even a Work in Progress

There is little doubt that under the Oli regime, there is no progress towards achieving democracy.

At the same time, the main opposition parties are also doing nothing towards this goal.

All the Nepalese political parties think and believe that just by holding elections, a country has achieved democracy. In fact, electoral democracy is only a cog in the wheel – and the start of the process. Some countries have even held socalled democratic elections and have then proceeded to undercut the very functioning of democratic institutions – like Poland and Hungary which are members of the European Union (EU), and Turkey. Even countries with a solid democratic tradition face hiccups. India under Narendra Modi is willfully undermining the democratic process.

Then we have the most blatant case of Donald J. Trump who lost an election fair and square, but who insists – like any tin-pot dictator in the so-called Third World that he actually won. The very sad aspect of the whole affair is that the overwhelming part of his political base and the majority of the Republican Party and the lawmakers in both the House of Representatives and the Senate supported him in this charade. What a terrible example to the whole world!

Thus, Nepal has to choose its own path to democracy. In the meantime, we have lost our way, thanks to incompetent self-styled leaders. We now have to start anew and lay fresh foundations.

The political parties have failed us miserably, their putative ‘leaders’ cannot show us the right path. Unfortunately, our civil society does not seem up to the task either. Last Friday, the leaders and members of the broad-based citizen movement’ Brihat Nagarik Andolan organized a ‘Tundikhel march’ to assert that this open space, a ‘symbol of democracy’ [to whom, pray] in Nepal, belongs to the people and wanted to occupy it, but was prevented from doing so by heavy security presence outside (police and armed police) and inside (the army) [TKP/The Kathmandu Post, Feb. 20].

This civil society was on the wrong track and could not, therefore, fire the imagination of the general public. On that very anniversary of National Democracy Day, it should have organized a mass march to the statue of King Tribhuwan in Tripureswar. King Tribhuwan was after all the facilitator of prajatantra, true democracy and the father of modern Nepal. That would have been symbolic and inspiring. But when rational thinking processes are clogged by ideological barriers, then clear solutions do not come to mind! Patriotic Nepalese have to abandon their inhibitions and start appreciating the contributions of the Shah Dynasty, the makers of the Nepali nation, and not equate former King Gyanendra with the totality of constitutional monarchy – which can be a unifying force against modernday despots.

What is currently happening in our country seems surreal and out of the world. The ordinary citizen does not know what to make of it – is it melodrama or tragi-comedy what all the political actors are doing?

In the latest twist in the tale, we now have the otherwise serious former speaker and lawyer Subhas Chandra Nembang claiming that the general public had “ratified” the government’s decision to opt for fresh general elections by dissolving parliament. He had full confidence that the Supreme Court’s verdict would respect the people’s aspirations (THT/The Himalayan Times, Feb. 21). This is preposterous on various counts. First, the Oli government has no right to speak on behalf of the people. They have not spoken one way or another. Second, it is also presumptuous to speculate how the apex court will decide. Third, even if the Court upholds the [caretaker] government’s illegal and unconstitutional decision, it is unclear what the results will be. Oli has, therefore, opened a virtual Pandora’s Box.

We may summarize the hard facts of our present predicament:

- The demonstrations by the two factions of the Nepali Communist Party (NCP) are a joke. They are only an attempt to hoodwink us gullible Nepalese. It is only a naked attempt to capture political power.

- The opposition parties are no better. They cannot see the wood for the trees.

- Nepali civil society is on the wrong track.

- The resistance/opposition movement must be built anew and from the ground up. The fixation on the Kathmandu Quagmire must be abandoned. Protests must be organized at the local and provincial levels so that the countryside gains the upper hand and the towns and cities are encircled – to take a leaf out of Mao Zedong’s tactics and strategy. - There is then the paramount question of organization and leadership. No outstanding leadership has emerged to free the Nepali people from their shackles. The pro-monarchy/proHindu movement could not build up steam. Perhaps, we have to take succor in the stirring words of the eternal bard:

Some men are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon them.

Prithvi Narayan, Jung Bahadur and Tribhuwan were of the second category, Mahendra of the first. We are awaiting someone from the third!

Afghanistan Peace Process in the Doldrums

The peace talks between the Afghan government of Ashraf Ghani and the opposition militants Taliban have been stalled.

Since the US government of Donald Trump signed an agreement with the Taliban in Doha, Qatar over the complete withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban has been very careful of pursuing a twopronged strategy – keeping their commitment of not attacking U.S. and NATO troops but relentlessly targeting Afghan security forces.

The rapid escalation of violence across the whole of the country is not only threatening the stability of this land-locked Hindu Kush nation but also undermining any prospects of a tangible ceasefire.

The extremist Taliban have now emerged as the strongest since the 2001 US-led invasion toppled their Islamist regime for sheltering the mastermind of the September 11 attacks on the twin towers in New York and the Pentagon, the alQaida leader Osama bin Laden – who escaped and found refuge in neighbouring Pakistan, where he was hunted down and killed during the administration of President Barack Obama.

President Joe Biden is currently conducting a review of the Trump deal for the May 1 withdrawal of all US/NATO troops. The Taliban have already warned that there is no room for dilly-dallying, threatening to restart the war with the US and NATO if the deadline is not met. Pakistan is seen as a key regional player as it could prod the Taliban leadership which maintains homes and headquarters in Pakistan, to agree to a reduction in the violence leading to an eventual ceasefire (AP/ Associated Press, Feb.20).

Russia too has lately undertaken a renewed diplomatic initiative. It has not forgotten its historical role in Afghanistan, where at least 15,000 Soviet troops were killed in fighting that began as an effort to prop up a Communist regime and ally and soon became a grinding campaign against the US-backed mujahedeen insurgency or ‘holy war’.

For the U.S., Russian intentions can only be suspect. Moscow's interference’ comes ahead of the 32nd anniversary of the Soviet Union’s degrading withdrawal from Afghanistan. Like any other country’s foreign policy, it is only the other side of the same coin, i.e. its domestic policy, and this has not been particularly uplifting, considering how Russia’s president-for-life, Vladimir Putin is treating dissidents, above all his bete noir, the anticorruption crusader Alexei Navalny.

Thai Protesters against the Military & Monarchy

A student-led protest movement has campaigned since last year for Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha [a former army chief] military-supported government to resign. They want the militarydictated constitution to be amended to make it more democratic. At the same time, they want the monarchy to be reformed to make it more accountable. Both very reasonable demands.

Gen. Prayuth survived a vote of noconfidence last week in parliament amid allegations that his government mismanaged the economy, bungled the provision of Covid-19 vaccines, abused human rights and fostered corruption (Reuters, Feb. 20).

But a more serious allegation was that Prayuth had deepened divisions in society by using the monarchy [highly respected in this Buddhist country] as a shield against criticism of his government. Above all, he has been accused of not understanding the fundamental principles of constitutional monarchy [like our authoritarian leaders in Nepal].

Interestingly, the protests in Thailand were inspired by those in Hong Kong, and those in Myanmar in both Hong Kong and Thailand. This is a kind of benign domino effect unfolding.

Protesters gathered again Sunday all over Myanmar, a day after security forces shot dead two people at a demonstration in the country’s second-largest city, Mandalay (AP/ Associated Press, Feb. 22). The hard-nosed military junta has now signaled that it is not interested in a fruitful dialogue with the pro-democracy opposition [and former legitimate government]. It is also – arrogantly -- completely ignoring the international community.

A funeral was also held for the young woman, Mya Thwet Thwet Khine who was shot on February 9 at the protest in the showpiece capital Naypyidaw and died of her injuries last Friday. She will definitely be honoured as the first martyr in the resurrected democracy movement.

This was the first confirmed death among the many tens of thousands who have taken to the streets to protest the February 1 putsch that toppled the elected government of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. A general strike shut businesses on Monday, as huge crowds gathered peacefully despite a sinister warning from the military that confrontation could lead to deaths.

The European Union warned it is considering sanctions on Myanmar while the U.S. penalized two more generals from links to the military coup, as Western countries sought to press the junta to avoid a violent crackdown (Reuters, Feb. 23). If the EU and the U.S. really mean business, they must now target the businesses where the military has huge stakes. “We are not prepared to stand by and watch,” German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said in Brussels, adding that sanctions could follow if diplomacy failed. UN Special Rapporteur Tom Andrews said millions had marched in a “breathtaking” turnout, despite the junta’s vindictive and malignant threat. “The generals are losing their power to intimidate and with it, their power. It is past time for them to stand down, as the people of Myanmar stand up,” Andrews said on Twitter.

If Nepal really had a functioning democratic system, it could have taken the lead as the current chair of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and recalled its ambassador from Myanmar as a sign of displeasure. At the same time, it could urge all the other members to do the same. This would send a clear signal from the important neighbouring region of South Asia to both Myanmar and the countries of South-East Asia that trampling on basic human rights cannot be tolerated and be treated as an internal matter. Nepal should also call an urgent [virtual] meeting of SAARC foreign ministers to discuss further necessary measures.