Biden confronting cold reality of office
TAMPA, FL: Having just jetted down from New York City to Tampa in Florida, one cannot but be struck by the sudden, dramatic change in the weather: from the Fall-like chill of the northern metropolis, even in Spring, to the Tropics-like hot and humid condition of the latter. While that is, of course, only one of the manifold manifestations of the amazing natural or physical diversity of this continent-sized country, the very same differential is there to marvel at the ground level on the pandemic front. Thus, one has a comparatively disciplined populace in New York and Maryland against the oddly relaxed or incongruously laid-back approach of Floridians visà-vis the dreaded Covid-19 pandemic presently spiking in large swathes of the country, despite exemplary progress in the public vaccination domain. COLD REALITY OF OFFICE
To be sure, President Joe Biden is now confronting what one public commentator pithily termed as the ‘cold reality of office’ as he approaches his first 100 days in power. Indeed, as of now, he is preparing for ‘tinderbox’, with the country on edge ahead of the verdict in the Minneapolis trial of police officer, Derek Chauvin. Biden is reportedly apprehensive that a controversial verdict could inflame new racial tensions and further escalate a deepening crisis of confidence with the nation’s police forces.
More generally, too, there is growing evidence that America is being forced to confront a basic failure to keep its own citizens safe given its recent alarming record on the culture of violence today, reflected in this telling statistic: 45 mass killings in 30 days! It is no wonder, then, that police agencies are preparing for potential unrest with the upcoming jury verdict in the George Floyd’s death at the hands of Chauvin in May 2020. Yet, it is in the realm of foreign policy that Biden’s challenges are perhaps the most daunting. Among them are those tied to his recent announcement that he would end America’s longest war by 11 September, deeming the two-decade-long conflict in Afghanistan no longer an American priority: “We cannot continue the cycle of extending or expanding our military presence in Afghanistan hoping to create the ideal conditions for our withdrawal, expecting a different result.”
Presently, there are 2,5003,500 U.S. servicemen and servicewomen in Afghanistan, along with another 750 British troops. The date 11 September is significant: it would mark exactly 20 years since al-Qaeda’s attacks on America, planned and directed from Afghanistan, that brought in the U.S.led Coalition that removed the Taliban that had provided safe haven to al-Qaeda forces to launch their deadly assault on the American heartland, dramatized most vividly by the destruction of the World Trade Center in New York City on 11 September, 2001.
Former president Donald Trump called the proposed Afghanistan withdrawal ‘a wonderful and positive thing to do’ but went on to criticize Biden’s timeline. Trump’s deadline for that was 1 May.
According to CNN’s Jo Shelley, reporting out of Kabul, there are no illusions among the local populace about the conditions that would ensue, post-11 September. As per Mohammed Edriss, who works for an international NGO, “The withdrawal isn’t for our benefit…There would be violence, insecurity will dramatically increase, and once again the Afghan people will start leaving Afghanistan and seeking asylum in other countries.” [Incidentally, Edriss’ prognosis should be kept in mind by those who ardently believe, as India’s Narendra Modi seemingly does, that a close or blind embrace of America and American arms is a surefire panacea for India’s foreign policy ambitions and security dilemmas.] According to BBC’s veteran international correspondent Lyse Doucet, though the 11 September deadline is decisive, “It could accelerate a push towards peace, or a descent into violence that shreds the open society which has been taking root – however slowly and unevenly – over the past two decades.”
She then quotes Tarnim Asey, executive chairman, Institute of Peace Studies in Kabul, who pronounces: “The best possible outcome to expect is that this withdrawal timeline serves as a catalyst and a mechanism to pressure Afghan parties to reach a political settlement by September, or face a bloody Syria-style civil war.” Doucet informs that many Afghans now fear a terrible tumbling towards civil war in a conflict already described as one of most violent in the world. As for the Taliban, she says, they’re still fixated on the U.S.’s broken pledge to pull out completely by 1 May. She quotes Taliban spokesman Dr Mohammed Naeem in declaring, in a Twitter post a few hours after Biden’s withdrawal announcement: “Until all foreign forces completely withdraw from our homeland, the Islamic Emirate will not participate in any conference that shall make decisions about Afghanistan.”
The conclave in question is a high-level and inclusive conference hosted by Turkey, Qatar and the UAE, set for Istanbul, 24 April. “The UN is being brought into centre stage as efforts are stepped up to jump-start peace talks as well as forge a consensus among regional powers, each with their own Afghan proxies”, Doucet informs.
According to the Hindu, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has drawn up a new proposal for peace with the Taliban ahead of the Istanbul conference. Ghani’s three-stage proposal reportedly includes reaching a political settlement with the Taliban and announcing an internationally monitored ceasefire. He then proposes to hold an early presidential election in which the Taliban could take part to form a “government of peace”. MYRIAD CHALLENGES There are of course myriad other significant foreign/ security policy challenges or ‘cold realities’ that Biden faces as he crosses his first 100 days in office with – to be sure – a number of impressive achievements under his belt.
I am reminded of Biden’s article in the New York Times, 14 September 2017 wherein he expansively argued: “A foreign policy built on our values must stand firm against foreign powers that celebrate a perceived withdrawal of American leadership as an opportunity to increase their influence. Without the United States standing as a bulwark for global democracy, illiberal powers like Russia will take increasingly aggressive steps to disrupt the international order, bully their neighbours and return to a more divided world.”
The difficulties confronting the Biden administration in making good on the sweeping claims implicit in the above formulation are evident in recent developments on the U.S. Russia relations front. Just the other day, for example, Russia sanctioned eight senior administration officials, including FBI director Christopher Wray, and Director of National Intelligence Avni Haines. On Friday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that the Kremlin will also expel 10 U.S. diplomats, curb the activities of U.S. nonprofit agencies in the country, impose new limits on American diplomats and diplomatic outposts, and consider “painful” measures against U.S. businesses, in retaliation by the earlier punitive actions by the Biden administration.
Lavrov also said the Kremlin had told American Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan that he should return to Washington to hold “detailed” and “serious” consultations. This followed the Russian ambassador’s expulsion from the United States in March, after Biden said in a TV interview he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin to be a “killer.”
Since then, Moscow has taken a number of tough military/naval actions which come a week after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking for the U.S. and its NATO allies, expressed deep concerns about Moscow’s military build-up along the border with Ukraine. Given Biden’s overflowing cup of woes, it is surely moot whether America’s tough actions and rhetoric are well aligned with the dire straits she appears to be in, domestically, and when countries such as Russia and China are thumbing their noses at a Washington that has no appetite to continue her military presence in Afghanistan.
And, talking about China, all that I have to add, in the context of this column, is not only the fact that several rounds of meetings were held last week in Shanghai between Xie Zhenhua, China’s climate envoy, and his U.S. counterpart, John Kerry, but also that Biden is holding a virtual climate summit 22-23 April which China says it is looking forward to.
As BBC reported, ahead of his trip to Shanghai, Kerry told CNN that China’s cooperation was “absolutely critical” to battle the climate crisis. “Yes, we have disagreements with China on some key issues, absolutely. But climate has to stand alone,” he said. Forty world leaders have been invited to attend, including Russia’s Putin. The summit is a milestone ahead of the United Nations climate conference in Glasgow in November. INDIA’S COVID MESS Another ‘cold reality’ facing the Biden administration at this time is the mess over India’s mishandling of the Covid-19 crisis. You’ll recall that India, Washington’s Quad partner, was lauded not long ago as a success story in tackling the pandemic, including during the first Quad summit hosted by Biden in March.
While the Indian Express reports that a second wave continues to grow at a rate higher than the 5.5 percent level during the first wave – with six Indian states dubbed as being of special concern – CNN has recently reported that India, “the world’s biggest vaccine producer is running out of Covid-19 vaccines, as a second wave accelerates.” That should be bad news for the wider world, including Nepal, for obvious reasons. For Indian travelers to the U.K., what should be equally is, as BBC reported, that the U.K. has now placed India on her red list amid variant concerns.
What’s more, as BBC’s Soutik Biswas reminds from the Indian capital, “In early March, India’s health minister Harsha
Vardan declared the country was “in the endgame” of the Covid-19 pandemic, as also that Vardan, had “lauded Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership as an ‘example of international cooperation.’ From January onwards, India had begun shipping doses to foreign countries as part of its much-vaunted ‘vaccine diplomacy’.” Biswas says that even as India’s mammoth vaccination effort is now struggling, tens of thousands of people were following their leaders to election rallies and attending the Hindu festival of Kumbh Mela. In short, “experts believe the government appears to have completely dropped the ball on the second wave of infections that was about to hit India.” OLI STILL ON TOP
Back home, too, the Covid-19 pandemic surges on with the government deciding to shut down schools in urban areas, as per press reports. While it appears that the winter session of parliament is being prorogued without even a single piece of legislative business being conducted since its convening on 7 March, the most salient feature of the current political scene, to me, is that, despite a cacophony of discordant political noises for ousting Prime Minister Oli from office, he is probably going to be around Baluwatar for quite some time to come. Ouch!
Meanwhile, I thought New Spotlight’s story on current parliamentary numbers being clearly in favour of Oli most timely, though it was bad news for Prachanda who, only the other day, recklessly claimed that there would be a new government by next month.
Before signing off, this columnist would like to express profound appreciation to Keshar Bahadur Bista, former Panchayat minister, for two very powerful, delightfully satire-laced political speeches wherein he completely eviscerated not only Oli but the entire gaggle of contemporary politicos. Mucho gracias or Dhanyabaad.