UML on the verge of a split

The intensity of dispute in the ruling Communist Party of Nepal United Marxist Leninist (CPNUML) though surprisingly did not surface this week as in the previous weeks has not gone down.

Although party chairman KP Sharma Oli and senior leader Madhav Kumar Nepal sat twice for talks last week, they failed to sort out the differences, which the two leaders themselves revealed the next day. While Prime Minister and party chair Oli did not give up his arrogant attitudes towards leader Nepal and other leaders of the disgruntling faction, leader Nepal simply said the twoday talks yielded nothing. Nepal stuck to his demand that the party should return to the situation which was before its unification with Moist Centre (May 2018) which Oli outright rejected. Nepal also did not accept the unilateral change made by Oli in the party. On March 12, Oli had added 23 Maoist leaders in the central committee meeting of the party and relieved the office bearers and central members including Nepal elected in the 9th general convention of the party. But Nepal has been putting forth correction of March 12 decisions as a condition for unity in the party.

Prime Minister Oli who has earned a bad name in breaching the constitution and violating the party statute has stated that revoking March 12 decision was impossible, clearly because he inducted Maoist leaders in the central committee which resulted in the expulsion of four former Maoist leaders from House of Representatives. Moreover, the Karnali incident in which four assembly members voted for Chief Minister Mahendra Bahadur Shahi by violating the party whip not only further widened the rift but pose a risk to the government led by Oli itself.

If the UML leaders crossed the floor as in Karnali, the Oli-led government could collapse during the voting of a no-confidence motion in the House of Representatives. Considering this in mind, Oli sought clarifications from 32 lawmakears close

to Nepal. But his attempt to expel them was reportedly delayed after many leaders including Subas Nembang opposed taking any action against Nepal-faction. Now the country is in lockdown, and no meeting could be held for at least two weeks, and the Nepal faction may not face any action. However, division in the UML and fall of the Oli-led government look almost certain in near future. The Nepali Congress and Maoist Centre have already prepared a noconfidence motion against the government, and once the Janata Samajwadi Party-Nepal gives a nod to register it, the government will collapse and the UML will be divided as Oli will expel all those lawmakers of his party who vote against his government.