Alternative government unlikely

Although the Maoist Centre and Nepali Congress as well as the Nepal faction of the UML have been exercising to topple the Oli-led government, it is unlikely they could succeed in their efforts as far as the ‘nationalist’ government led by KP Sharma Oli continues to receive Indian backing. If the pro-Indian faction of the Janata Samajbadi Party-Nepal agrees to topple the government, Oli government will collapse immediately. But Mahantha Thakur and Rajendra Mahato of the JSP-N are not willing to act against the government because Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and they have the same foreign masters—India.

PM Oli dared to dissolve the House in December last year clearly at the advice of Samanta Goel, the RAW chief, and the two JSP-N leaders who have been working in the interest of India for a long.

However, if the two leaders want to maintain unity in the party, they could agree to topple the government at any time on the condition that they could enjoy a big share in the new government.

Yes, the UML leaders close to Nepal could cross the floor during voting as they did in the Karnali Provincial Assembly, causing failure of the Oliled government, but the new PM might not garner the required majority unless all lawmakers of JSPN stand together. Fearing this situation, NC president Sher Bahadur is reportedly hesitating to register a no-confidence motion. Again NC chief Deuba wants elections when the communists were divided. As such, an alternative to the Oli-led government looks impossible in the near future.