US Exit: How will Afghanistan-Pakistan security change?

Kathmandu: Far-flung Turkey too is greatly concerned with the continued political fluidity and instability that has become the hallmark of Afghanistan since decades and decades got affirmed when this country had sponsored a trilateral meet of Turkey-Afghanistan and Pakistan as back as in the year 2014.

The difference is that the 2014 trilateral meet was hosted by President Abdullah Gül and this time it was scheduled to be organized by President Erdogan on April 24 which unfortunately got postponed. Rahat Shah, a student at Jilian’s University, China claims that it was Turkey, the first Muslim country, which had tried to ameliorate Pakistan and Afghanistan relations during the post 9/11 decades. According to Shah, the first Presidential summit known as the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Turkey tripartite Summit was held as back as April 2007. Perhaps to keep the Turkish tradition alive, the US side appears to have approached Turkey to host the 24 April Conference that unfortunately got deferred at the last minute so to say. Turkey, notably, is one of the trusted US partners in the NATO block.

However, the Istanbul conference on Afghanistan adjourned on account of the Holy month Ramadan of the Muslims across the globe as was given to understand by the Turkish Foreign Minister. The talks may begin by the middle of May. Whether this postponement agreed with the AfghaniTaliban has not become public but when the organizers of the larger size conference have said so then one has to admit to what has been said by the competent authorities in Turkey.

“We thought that it would be beneficial to reschedule it … We consulted Qatar, the United States and the United Nations and decided to hold it after Ramadan and Eid festivities,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told the Haberturk news channel on Tuesday, reported Al Jazeera 21 April. Cavusoglu favours the postponement and claims that there is “no need to hurry” after the recent decision by the US to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan. The Holy month Ramadan reason appears logical but highly placed sources in South Asia claim that the sudden rescheduling speaks that some “glitches” have come on the way to the happening of “slated” Istanbul International Conference. But what?

A near to surety could be the Afghani-Taliban rejecting to attend the Istanbul conference stressing the need to withdraw the US forces as promised by President Trump by approaching the month of May.

For the record, the new administration led by President Joe Biden has promised that the US troops shall leave Afghanistan by 11 September this year. It is the US's longest war.

“The US can’t continue to pour resources into an intractable war and expect different results”, Biden had said while announcing that the US forces would leave Kabul by 11 September.

Soon after Biden made his announcement for the 11 September withdrawal, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg in Brussels said the alliance had agreed to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan. President demanded that he should be given some three months plus for the withdrawal to which the Talibanis say “no” to the announcement of new dates for foreign troop’s withdrawal.

Fearing the derailing of the Doha peace process, a key component for Afghan peace, Pakistan has duly urged the Taliban to “remain engaged” in the Afghan peace process (from Doha to Istanbul…) after the armed group said it would shun summits/ conferences on Afghanistan until all foreign forces leave the Afghan territory. Pakistani foreign minister Qureshi appealed to the Afghani-Talibans to attend the Istanbul conference while he was in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, last week.

Defending the US withdrawal delayed by few months, FM Qureshi said, “there is always a possibility (for the delay) due to logistics but that the Taliban largely succeeded in their objective for foreign troops to withdraw and so should show flexibility towards the new 11 September deadline set by President Joe Biden”. FM Qureshi unconditionally approves the US President delaying the foreign troop’s withdrawal from May to September.

“We support the principle of responsible troop withdrawal in coordination with Afghan stakeholders," the Pakistan Foreign Ministry said in a statement issued on 15 April.

The statement adds, "We also hope that the US will continue to urge the Afghan leaders to seize this historic opportunity for achieving a political settlement in Afghanistan."

Pakistan, which undeniably wields a significant influence over the AfghaniTaliban, had also welcomed the forthcoming Afghan peace summit in Istanbul, Turkey, (which is aborted for the time being) hoping that it will be an important opportunity for Afghan leaders to make progress towards a negotiated political settlement.

The Express Tribune columnist, Imran Jan, on 22 April wrote, “now is the time to show flexibility and stay focused on the larger goal: the American exit". If the Taliban wants to be taken seriously and considered a force to be reckoned with in a future Afghanistan, it needs to show negotiation skills today. The Americans would need partners in a future Afghanistan and who is to say those partners couldn’t be the Taliban?

But will President Ghani share power with the Taliban? To recall, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had recently written to President Ghani to accept a power-sharing formula with the Taliban. Ghani rejected the US formula reportedly.

Even if the scheduled International Conference on Afghanistan postponed, the foreign ministers of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkey last Friday in Istanbul called on the Afghan Taliban to reaffirm its commitment to achieving a negotiated settlement for lasting peace in Afghanistan. Issuing a joint statement after the troika met, the three ministers underlined “the urgent need for an immediate ceasefire” to end the violence and “provide a conducive atmosphere” for peace talks.

Amidst the deferment of the Istanbul symposium on Afghanistan for permanent peace and even when US President Biden has set the new date for a complete withdrawal of the US and the NATO forces from the Afghani soil by 11 September, Chris Dolan, a professor of politics and global studies at Lebanon Valley College in Annville, writes in The Hill on 15 April, “while Biden now appears committed to withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan, the U.S. cannot simply pack up and walk away from Afghanistan as it did at the end of the 1980s following the Soviet withdrawal.

Professor Chris states, “That would be a security disaster for Afghanistan, the U.S., and Central Asia. Most important, Afghanistan’s geographic location is central to America’s broader geopolitical competition with China, which over the last decade has evolved from Obama’s pivot to Asia to Trump’s free and open IndoPacific strategy.

He then opines that US President Biden may keep his promises yet the US will not leave or abandon Afghanistan and concede that vital space to China and thus Professor Chris sees Biden’s challenge in convincing a “war-fatigued American people that the U.S. will likely never leave Afghanistan”.

The China factor:

Analysts in Washington also assert that the CIA and other key US establishments may not wish to withdraw completely as promised by Biden.

For strategic reasons too, the US may have to go the way to what the Professor suggests in that China has just inked a mega-deal with Iran which is close to Afghanistan. China thus has a strategic partnership with the US bete noir, Iran, which could be a potential threat to the US larger interests in the region. And the Russians are chasing the US.

Given China’s heavy presence in Iran, Pakistan and in the Gulf nations through the Belt and Road Initiative and its close proximity with these countries and with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s fresh trip to the Gulf nations, the US may find it difficult to leave Afghanistan as such the withdrawal may create a political vacuum in the entire region which covers the Central Asian vast expanse plus the Gulf.

Withdrawal vacuum and the spoilers:

This political vacuum may be exploited by known and declared “spoilerdestabilizer” of the region, India, to its benefit thereby creating more complications for the US and NATO forces upon leaving Afghanistan. Is India against the Doha peace process? Yes. A fairly disturbed Kabul is what Delhi is interested in.

Yet very interestingly, Biden had also stated that though it is time to end America’s longest war”, but he also had mentioned that the US will not conduct a hasty rush to the exit, write Aamer Madhani and Mathew Lee on 14 April in the AP News. Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan is also on record to have stated in his muchpublicized article published in the Washington Post on 26 September 2020, wherein he had said, “Pakistan is against any hasty withdrawal”.

He said, “A hasty international withdrawal from Afghanistan would be unwise. We should also guard against regional spoilers who are not invested in peace and see instability in Afghanistan as advantageous for their own geopolitical ends”.

Is India the real villain to Afghanistan peace? Yes. India is a hundred percent. PM Khan also wrote in the article that through decades of conflict, Pakistan has dealt with the responsibility of taking care of more than 4 million Afghan refugees. This means that Khan intends to ensure full-proof peace and political stability in Afghanistan upon the withdrawal of the forces. This further means that PM Khan is afraid of a “hasty withdrawal” which may encourage the spoilers (India?) in and around the region who wish to cash in from the ensuing chaos and turbulence in Afghanistan close on the heels of the removal of the foreign forces.

Is PM Khan then against the 11 September withdrawal of the US and the NATO forces from Afghanistan? Reportedly, the South Asian regional bully India from the start of Pakistan backed and encouraged Doha peace process was secretly making efforts to derail the Doha venture of peace in Afghanistan and hence, as the Pakistan President Arif Alvi while talking to the Voice of America correspondent, Ayesha Tanzeem, 21 April, candidly said, “India has played a negative role”, “India never accepted the Doha talks”, “India never encouraged the Doha talks”, and “we suspect that role (India’s) will continue”.

India is the regional desperado which prefers commotion to prevail in Afghanistan which in turn provides India to pounce upon Pakistan from the slim slot of land inside Afghanistan. Just recall the infiltration of the Indian spy Kul Bhushan Yadav into Pakistan.

What President Arif Alvi talked to the VOA must have approached the US Administration and hopefully, Biden will think twice about India’s mal-intent on peace in Afghanistan.

In the course of the VOA interview, Alvi also stated that the withdrawal also relates to the fact that there should be an agreement between the Taliban and the government of Afghanistan on what is going to happen in the future.

"Pakistan wants stability on its borders because any instability, or any insurrection of any sort, is going to hurt us, it has always done so. Therefore, we are looking forward to a stable and peaceful Afghanistan”, says Alvi. This explains the Pakistani position on why it needs peace in bordering Afghanistan.

To a query of Ms Ayesa, Alvi bluntly told his country doesn’t want to become a base for the U.S. actions in Afghanistan. “Pakistan wants to play a peaceful role”, Alvi stressed.

Alvi finally said, “the efforts of the governments of the United States, Pakistan, China, Russia, and Iran are all important in trying to stabilize and encourage an agreement between the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban”.

South Asian political analysts opine that after the foreign forces' withdrawal from Afghanistan, much will depend on Pakistan on how this country extends its meaningful cooperation both to Afghanistan and the outgoing US government in maintaining and institutionalizing a lasting peace in war-torn Afghanistan and vice versa. Next door Pakistani support to lasting peace in Afghanistan is necessarily crucial for Pakistan as any disturbance in Afghanistan will have its negative impact on the security and the political stability of the former. Pakistan is home to millions and millions of Afghan refugees. Apart, both the US and Afghani government will have to cooperate with Pakistan simply because the latter maintains a considerable influence on the AfghaniTaliban.

It is this position that enhances the credibility and the desirability of Pakistan to both the US and the Afghani government. Thus Pakistan is a key constituent for peace in Afghanistan. Dissenting voice in the US: Top commander for the U.S. operations in the Middle East, General Kenneth Frank McKenzie prefers to differ with Biden and Ashraf Ghani on the forces' withdrawal. He spoke to the US congress last Thursday, writes Paul D Shinkman for the US News on 22 April. He said, "I am concerned about the Afghan military's ability to hold on after we leave,"

McKenzie questioned whether the fledgeling Afghan air force would be able to fly once the U.S. follows through on Biden's plan to have withdrawn all the U.S. forces from America's longest war by 11 September.

The Centcom chief also said militants regrouping was not just a threat to the U.S. or Pakistan. “It’s a concern of all the Central Asian states to the north. It is even of concern to Iran in the West...Everyone has a vested interest in a stable Afghanistan,” he said. Afghan envoy meets Pak Army Chief:

“Peace in Afghanistan means peace in Pakistan, reiterated Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa on 22 April as he met Afghan Ambassador to Pakistan, Najibullah Ali Khil.

The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), said in a statement that the army chief and the Afghan envoy, during their meeting at the GHQ, exchanged views on matters of mutual interest, regional security situation including the Afghan Peace Process, enhanced bilateral security and defense cooperation and effective border management between the two countries.

All in all, stability in Afghanistan is directly related to peace in Pakistan, say South Asian analysts. That’s all.