Undercurrents

It just doesn’t gel. A country that consumes itself with politics cannot be blind to its effects on the population. The people at large are by now aware that we have outsourced our decision-making. The discussion now debates whether New Delhi wants Prime Minister K.P. Oli to stick to his prime ministerial seat until elections. The general understanding is that his talks with a section of the Janata Samajbadi Party, with the latter’s Delhi connection not altogether hidden, will succeed with the right strings pulled. If it doesn’t, Oli still has the upper hand until the budget session which must sit and vote for the government. It is understood that Oli must fortify his numbers till then. The new phase of floor crossings shows that Oli and Madhav Nepal are in a tussle pulling the same cadre in a tug of war that makes a split party nearly inevitable. The only guess is when. With Supremo Prachanda not wanting to precipitate a midterm by withdrawing his support from UML parliamentary ranks, the inevitability of a budget vote is a deadline towards which all are working. The advantage is with Oli and it does appear that Prachanda is losing. But, sadly, it is not just Prachanda, The loss is to a non-functioning system. Even the House Spear has now been dragged in. It seems Oli’s allegation directed at the speaker has bearings on the overall tussle MCC notwithstanding.

Let us just suppose that parliament remains static and the budget fails in parliament, it is the same state of affairs that the prime minister wants to precipitate. Unless that is, parliament creates the other option in numbers. This, after all, is not emerging. The people are aware of the drama and are resigned to it. The others who are not are so partisan in this game that they ignore a growing public consensus that their leadership is costing the state. A reinstated house shut down without business simply to have a budget session fail the budget? What farce! Again it is the public slander being thrown at each other by the leadership that is actually opening the eyes of the public to the dirt in the laundry. Public consumption of the shouting match in the left has been thoroughly negative and the awareness that the shouting match adds to the problem of distancing from each other makes sure that the solution is not in another patchwork arrangement mended by foreign mentors. In actual fact, we are where we were in 1955 amidst the M.P. Koirala and B.P. Koirala standoff or in 1992 when Sher Bahadur Deuba chose to clash with G.P. Koirala. K.P is wise to the fact that he will lose if he resigns just as Matrika did and both Madhav Nepal or Prachanda must now be licking their wounds for having pounced on their party president since it is the party president who calls the shots in Nepal’s political parties as Deuba must have belatedly learnt under Girija. The country is election-bound, yes. Sooner or later must await events. And so the debate spills over to discussions on whether a loose, loose election can actually take place. It is this that is the hundred dollar question.