New Great Game in Central & West Asia: U.S. Disengages from Euro-Asian Heartland

In order to get a sense of what U.S. President Joe Biden initiated in Afghanistan and its implications for the region of Central and West Asia and indeed for the wider world of the littoral states of the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific – euphemistic titled the “Indo-Pacific” – let us recapitulate the actions and reactions since President George W. Bush’s momentous decision to invade Afghanistan after 9/11.

1. Let us say Bush’s decision to invade was justified in order to extract revenge from Al Qaeda and its militant leader Osama bin Laden, and also to crush the Islamist Taliban regime which harboured him.

2. The Bush administration did overwhelm the ruthless, autocratic Taliban, but did not apprehend bin Laden. Bush soon lost interest in Afghanistan and transferred his attention unnecessarily to Iraq, wrongly accusing its dictator Saddam Hussein of possessing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). His actual aim was regime change. In this he was abetted by British Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair, whose recent criticism of Joe Biden clings hollow.

3. Bush returned to Afghanistan with troop surges, but no clear cut policy, i.e. what the U.S. really intended long-term.

He left a clearly divided Afghanistan to his successor.

4. Barack Obama had a vacillating policy with troop increases and decreases and the insurgency still raging in both his terms, but at least with a semblance of stability.

5. Donald J. Trump ascended the presidency with no wish to continue America’s positive engagement in the world at large. He was the most disruptive U.S. President, whether in the domestic sphere or abroad. The country is still reeling from his divisive policies. He initiated the U.S. policy of disengagement – falsely believing that two oceans would isolate America from events abroad.

His Afghanistan policy was a catastrophe – the beginning of the end. He reduced U.S. troops to a bare minimum, and started negotiating with the Taliban at Doha, Qatar – but bypassing the legitimate government of Ashraf Ghani. Trump thus treated the Taliban as a valid negotiating partner, while delegitimizing the Kabul government.

Above all, he made the cardinal mistake of negotiating the final departure date of all U.S. troops by the end of May and that even without consulting the NATO allies many of whom had troops on the ground.

6. Joe Biden became president by fluke – with a large vote count, but a narrow Electoral College majority in key battleground states – but with high hopes both domestically and internationally that he would radically change Trump’s domestic and external agenda.

He did initiate measures to turn things around, or as he said to “build back better”.

But it was in Afghanistan that he stumbled – and very badly:

1. He had no reason to stick to Trump’s withdrawal plans. Against the advice of his top military advisers, he first named the anniversary of 9/11 as the date of departure of the remaining 2,500 U.S. troops, then pushed it forward to August 31.

2. His top advisers on national security failed to convince him to retain even a semblance of American presence. The whole decision-making process in the foreign policy domain was dysfunctional.

3. Biden just wanted the U.S. out of Afghanistan – come what may. He neglected to envisage what would happen in the political vacuum. He stressed that the U.S. now had other priorities – above all the competition and confrontation with the rising super-power China. Biden completely underestimated the geostrategic importance of the Euro-Asian Heartland, thereby unwittingly and vainly undermining the very much vaunted Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) and leaving the door wide open for China’s BRI.

Biden’s willful and sudden disengagement from Afghanistan will come back to haunt America. He headed like a bull in the China shop and his successor will have to pick up the pieces.

4. Domestically, Biden will soon be a broken man with no hope of a second term. Biden is rapidly losing support, especially among independents.

The Republicans are rubbing their hands in glee and may very well sweep the coming mid-term Congressional elections in 2022 – a grave danger for America and the world. Biden’s lack of foresight will have grave unintended consequences!

Regional Powers Enter the Breach As it became clear that the Americans were leaving and long before the Kabul government crumbled like a house of cards, the regional powers – China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan — had already taken out feelers to the future rulers. Only India was too slow. CHINA received the Taliban’s co-founder and one of its top leaders, Mullah Baradar and laid the foundation for close future relations, especially in the economic sphere. Afghanistan is supposedly rich in minerals important for the technological and computer industries – rare earth and lithium. China will help develop and exploit these mineral riches.

At the same time, there is also the security aspect. China wants to consolidate its close relations with the new rulers to undermine any security threats to its Xinjiang Autonomous Region through Afghanistan’s Wakhan Corridor. RUSSIA made it clear that it would not tolerate any American or other incursions into its political backyard and soft underbelly – the former Soviet-era Central Asian Republics. Here Russia checkmated the U.S. well ahead. The U.S. has no possibility to re-establish military bases in any of these republics or monitor terrorist movements and activities in Afghanistan.

If the Taliban play good with Russia and of course the Central Asian Republics, and Iran, Afghanistan could break through its unenviable landlocked status and be a conduit for the region’s oil and natural gas from the Heartland to the Arabian Sea.

If this land route from Central Asia through Afghanistan and Iran were to be opened, it would also fulfil a long-held Russian national interest to gain access to the warm waters of the Indian Ocean.

Although IRAN is Shia majority and Afghanistan Sunni majority, the leaders of both countries have papered over their sectarian differences in order to establish a working relationship. Iran is very interested in establishing stability in its unruly eastern provinces and stopping the flow of refugees.

It is also very interesting in participating in the very lucrative [future] Central Asian trade and bypassing American sanctions. PAKISTAN has had close relations with the Taliban for ages. However, this could turn out to be a doubleedged sword, since the Pakistan Taliban is a pain in the neck for the Pakistan government.

The Pakistan military has now achieved its long-aspired goal of strategic depth and through this the one-upmanship vis-à-vis India. Unfortunately, Pakistan has still to overcome a security weakness which is a legacy of British colonialism. This is the bilateral border with Afghanistan – the socalled Durand Line -- which has never been officially recognized by Afghanistan, which calls it a de facto disputed border demarcation with no legal sanctity. In addition, the entire border with Afghanistan and Iran is quite porous – posing a threat from terrorists.

INDIA has been the great loser. It heavily backed the government of Ashraf Ghani and invested quite a lot in development projects. The fate of these is unknown. It will now be prone to terrorist actions in its truncated state of Jammu & Kashmir.

Like America, India is at a loss as to the way forward. The muchvaunted pivot to Asia policy started by Barack Obama is in shambles. One of its major components, in fact, one of its limbs, has been cut off. India is too weak vis-à-vis China and can now only turn to America for help.

There is one other unlikely regional player that has now entered the Afghan scene, and that is QATAR. It played a major role in hosting the Taliban political leadership and facilitating talks between the Taliban and the Trump administration, and later between the Taliban and the Ashraf Ghani government.

It has now turned out that Qatar has conducted some of the most sensitive rescue efforts in and around Kabul.

Qatar has been requested by the Taliban to provide civilian technical assistance at the Kabul international airport, and by UN agencies for help and support in delivering aid to Afghanistan. Depending on what the Taliban does and does not undertake, the worstcase scenario for Afghanistan may not occur after all.