Communist parties’ future in Nepal
With the downfall of the strong communist government led by KP Sharma Oli two months ago, the debate about the future of the communists in Nepal has begun. The communists which contested the 2017 general elections as a single party or an alliance have now been divided into three parties whereas Bamdev Gautam, who played the key role to unify the CPNUML and the Maoist in 2017 is still out of the three parties formed by dividing the then Nepal Communist Party. Moreover, the enmity between UML chief KP Sharma Oli and Maoist Centre boss Pushpa Kamal Dahal and chairman of newly formed Nepal Communist Party Unified Socialist Madhav Kumar Nepal is not likely to bring them closer in near future. While Nepal and Dahal played the key role to oust Oli from power, they will probably never want to unify with the UML until Oli leads it.
Obviously, the division has weakened the communist force in the country and they are likely to face defeat in the general elections next year.
However, intellectuals associated with the then Nepal Communist Party had started predicting that Oli was finishing the Communist movement in Nepal right from the day he unconstitutionally dissolved the House of Representatives on December 20 last year. When his act was widely called unconstitutional and the Supreme Court reinstated the House accordingly, he did not stop here. He continuously resorted to one unconstitutional act after another and finally again dissolved the House in May. These activities of Oli further irked the communists who were not taking direct benefits from the Oli government and disappointed many who have sacrificed for political change in the country. Moreover, when Oli surrendered to India and worked in favour of the forces which were not happy with the Constitution, this not only spoiled his nationalist image of the communists but also raised the question about the sustainability of the system ushered in by a joint struggle of the Nepali Congress and communists. Fed up with the antinational and anticonstitutional activities of Oli, Madhav Kumar Nepal formed CPN (Unified Socialist) although a few of his aides deceived him at the last moment. With Nepal and Jhalanath Khanal who contributed more than Oli for the organisational strength of CPN-UML, the division is sure to affect the UML led by Oli. Moreover, most of the leaders who are now with Oli have not good image in public with some facing corruption allegations and others with the background of
goons. Also, Oli is accused of protecting the corruption of his party. Above all, the leaders who are now with Oli have no communist character.
Now that the NCP of the past has been divided into three separate parties, the communists are not likely to regain their strength soon. Dahal and Nepal may forge an election alliance, they cannot compete with the UML having a strong organisational base.
But they will be strong enough to defeat the UML candidates in general elections. And when the divided communists are prevented from reaching power for 10 years, they are sure to be weakened further.