Nepal/China/Afghanistan/Russia-ukraine

The Fake Himalayan Republic

If the Nepalese people think that they are living in a genuine Secular Federal Democratic Republic, then they are sadly [or happily] mistaken. The so-called Republic, i.e. a state without a reigning monarch, has all the trappings of a Hindu Monarchy. Like in the glorious days of the past, the so-called President of the Himalayan Republic follows all the trappings of a reigning Hindu Maharani. Only missing is the title of “Her Highness”.

She visits various Hindu temples as was the wont of Nepali kings. In the tradition of the Great King Prithvi Narayan Shah, she pays annual obeisance to the Royal Kumari of Kantipur, the “Living Goddess” and receives “tika” and permission to rule over the Emerald Valley for a further one year!

Lately, President Bidya Devi Bhandari [as a diehard Communist, supposed to be an atheist] observed the annual Rato Machhindra Bhoto Jatra. After the ceremonial viewing, President Bhandari also received “tika” and “prasad” (The Rising Nepal, June 5, 2022).

Very strangely, Vice President Nanda Bahadur Pun [also a Maoist and atheist], Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, political leaders, security heads and high-ranking mandarins also attended the function.

This is not how things function in a secular state. The Nepali political establishment is taking the Nepali people for a ride. Why are the socalled intelligentsia keeping silent? The current Nepalese state is, in fact, a “pseudo-Republic” and at heart remained truly Hindu and monarchic.

Remembering the Palace Massacre of 2001

This brings us to the tremendously tragic commemoration of the gruesome palace massacre of 2001, which wiped out HM King Birendra’s entire immediate family, but not the Shah clan.

It has come to light that by only extremely ill-fated chance did HH Prince Nirajan also become the victim of his evil brother’s machinations.

As his personal Nepali tutor at Eton College now concedes, HM Queen Aishwarya expected Prince Nirajan after completing his ‘A Level’ in England to proceed to the United States for higher studies.

However, the tutor convinced the royal parents that the ‘Nepali experience’ was more appropriate and Prince Nirajan was enrolled for the BBA at Kathmandu University [his infamous brother was pursuing a Ph.D at Tribhuwan University]. The fateful decision ensured that Prince Nirajan was also wiped out with the whole family in the murderous complot in which nonstate and state actors must have been involved, and in which security services inside and outside the Narayanhiti Durbar failed most iniquitously.

After Nepal’s Local Elections

After the success of the ruling fiveparty alliance [and the resounding loss of the CPN-UML], the road map for the major and minor political parties and independents in the coming provincial/state and national parliamentary elections are being sorted out. For the ruling alliance the path forward is crystal clear: the continuation with minor changes. This is the sine qua non for the Nepali Congress (NC) and its undisputed leader Sher Bahadur Deuba who are mortally afraid of any hint of a nascent ‘left alliance’ emerging.

For Oli’s party, the alliance with Kamal Thapa’s rump RPP-N debacle. Kamal Thapa as a politician and his party have become untouchable and untrustworthy.

For the genuine democratic forces, the way forward must be to fight the forthcoming provincial/state and national parliamentary elections in a level-playing field. The elections cannot be free and fair under the five-party alliance who have all state power in their hands. The Nepali Congress itself is a prisoner of unscrupulous politicians who believe that ‘the ends justify the means’.

The Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) under Rajendra Lingden, the Sajha Bibeksheel Party, independents and other democratic forces must come together and agitate for an independent, non-party government to oversee the elections. At the same time, they should also explore ways and means to forge their own local and national alliances. They are between the devil and the deep blue sea and should exploit every weakness of the two powerful forces – both on the left of centre.

Chinese Communist Party: New Foreign Relations Chief

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has appointed Liu Jianchow to lead its International Liaison Department, the national level agency in charge of the CCP’s bilateral relations with fraternal political parties, especially in Communist/socialistruled countries, like North Korea, Vietnam, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba, but also with countries where the Communist Party or parties play a leading role, like Nepal.

The International Liaison Department is separate from China’s foreign ministry, which engages with other countries at the government level (Reuters, June 3).

Liu, 58, replaces Song Tao. Liu, an Oxford-educated career diplomat, was the foreign ministry’s chief spokesman between 2006 and 2009. After serving two ambassadorial postings to the Philippines and Indonesia, he returned to Beijing and in 2015 led a global hunt for fugitives wanted at home for corruption. He is generally perceived as open and friendly.

In 2018, Liu was appointed as deputy director at the Office for Central Foreign Affairs Commission, which is chaired by President Xi Jinping himself. The commission is China’s most powerful decision-making institution on foreign policy.

Liu now heads the party’s department of foreign relations, which engages in diplomacy through interaction with political parties in other countries, and is also the main point of contact for countries ruled by Communist parties [which has shrunk tremendously since the end of the Cold War].

On paper, there seems to be a division of labour between the CCP’s International Liaison Department and the official Ministry of Foreign Affairs. However, since the CCP is supreme in all matters, it is easy to ascertain who is primus inter pares among the leading mandarins dealing with China’s external relations.

Most importantly, those at the upper echelons of the Communist Party can overrule the desires of the foreign ministry.

Capping 38 years of diplomatic service, Yang Jiechi finally ascended China’s top foreign policy position in 2013. After serving as foreign minister for six challenging years, Yang was named State Councillor in charge of managing foreign affairs (BBC, March 19, 2013).

Yang’s successor, Wang Yi, moved into his new role as foreign minister after scaling China’s diplomatic ranks for three decades, working both as ambassador to Japan and the United States. For some time, he was also in charge of Beijing’s complex relationship with Taiwan. Now he has also been named as state councilor.

In addition, various think tanks attached to and independent of prestigious universities are also involved in the formulation and critique of China’s foreign policy. Thus, many mandarins are involved in stirring China’s foreign policy pot.

Afghanistan: Terrorists Fighting Terrorists

Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers are maintaining close ties with alQaida as they consolidate control over the country and their main military threat is coming from the Islamic State (IS) extremist group and guerilla-style attacks by former Afghan government security personnel according to UN experts (AP/Associated Press).

The experts said in a report to the UN Security Council that with the start of better weather, fighting may escalate as both Islamic State and Afghan resistance forces are expected to undertake operations against the Taliban military.

The presence of IS, al-Qaida and “many other terrorist groups and fighters on Afghan soil” is raising concerns in neighbouring countries and the wider international community.

Since their dramatic takeover of Afghanistan last August 15 as the US and NATO forces were in the final stages of their hasty and chaotic withdrawal from the country after 20 years of engagement, the Taliban had “favoured loyalty and seniority over competence, and their decisionmaking process has been opaque and inconsistent,” according to the UN experts.

The UN panel monitoring sanctions against the Taliban said its leaders [had defied international opinion] and appointed 41 men on the ‘UN sanctions blacklist’ to the cabinet and senior positions.

In addition, they have predominantly favoured the country’s dominant Pashtun ethnic group, thereby alienating minority communities including ethnic Tajiks, Uzbeks and the Shia Hazaras.

The Taliban has primarily been concerned with consolidating domestic control while attempting to obtain international recognition. They are also re-engaging with the international financial system and attempting to receive aid from the international community in order to deal with the growing economic and humanitarian crisis in the country. However, since taking power, there have been many factors within the extremist Islamist movement leading to perceptions that the Taliban’s governing style has been chaotic, disjointed and prone to reversing policies and reneging on policies made – above all girls’ education and women’s workplace.

The Taliban are struggling mightily to transition from an [albeit resolute and determined] insurgency to a smooth governing body.

At the same time, they have been deeply divided between the pragmatists and the hardliners. The latter have gained the upper hand and want to turn the clock back brutishly to the movement’s very harsh rule from 1996 until December 2001, when they were ousted from power by US forces [and the Mujaheedin] for harbouring al-Qaeda [and Osama bin Laden] following the 9/11 attacks on the Twin Towers in New York and the Pentagon.

The Taliban’s efforts to win international recognition [to date only from Pakistan] and financial/ development aid from Western nations have floundered miserably, largely because they have not formed a more representative government, and have restricted the rights of girls to education beyond elementary school, and of women to work and travel without a male relative’s oversight.

According to the UN experts, “the central dilemma is how a movement with an inflexible ideology can engage with a society that has evolved during the past 20 years.” Moreover, “further stresses revolve around power, resources, and regional and ethnic divisions”. Afghanistan was on the one hand definitely on the road to a just and equitable society and sustained development. On the other hand, it was betrayed internally by its own elites enjoying the fruits of power and allowing rampant, endemic corruption [fully ignorant of the growing power of the Taliban in the countryside], and externally by the United States and NATO for hastily and panic-stricken abandoning an ally.

It seems that now the Taliban are (over)confident that even if they make no significant concessions – internally and externally the legitimate government, especially in the absence of a government-in-exile or significant domestic opposition. Russia’s Ukraine War Has Changed the World

Russia invaded Ukraine more than 100 days ago for the flimsiest of reasons.

The first territorial invasion of a sovereign state in Europe in 80 years – after Nazi Germany started its depredations – has left its indelible marks – with impacts felt around the world.

When Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, it was the first large-scale war of aggression in Europe since World War II (DW/ Deutsche Welle, June 4).

It was unimaginable to many and the war has impacted the world in unexpected ways that have reverberated across the globe.

The kaleidoscope of actions and reactions have now meant that Russia – whether it likes it or not – is waging war not only against Ukraine, but also against Europe and now against the world. The megalomaniac Vladimir Putin with neo-imperial intentions has clearly bitten off more than he could chew. There are some would-be statesman like Emmanuel Macron of France who are trying to help that Putin does not choke!

Putin started his war of aggression of his own volition [actually it was a continuation of the one he had already started in 2014 – only the Western Powers in particular, and the world in general had not taken notice!]. Macron wants to save him from further humiliation!

The West & Ukraine

The political West and the international community are allowing Russia to bombard all of Ukraine with impunity, so that steadily its villages and towns are being reduced to rubble.

Ukraine has become the first line of defence for the EU and NATO, yet the timid West is condemning Ukrainians to an agonizing war without end.

What we are seeing are mostly halfhearted measures against Russia and half-baked arms supplies. Ukraine must have the teeth to attack Russian positions vigorously and need to be supplied immediately with long-range artillery and attack war planes.

The West has to abandon its spineless

policy vis-à-vis Putin – the ruthless invader and relentless suppressor of domestic dissent -and shed its Angst of retaliatory actions.

Five Ways Putin’s War Has Changed the World

Because of the Russian invasion, some 6.8 million Ukrainians have fled their own country, and an additional 7.7 million have been internally displaced.

All of the neighbouring countries have taken in the refugees. Apart from Poland, Germany and the Czech Republic currently host the largest number of Ukrainian refugees.

The influx of Ukrainian refugees into the European Union (EU) has both galvanized support for Ukraine, as well as strained intake systems.

There is method to Putin’s madness, because his secondary aim is to destabilize both the EU and NATO.

2. World-wide Food Crisis

Ukraine, like Russia itself, is an important breadbasket.

Ukraine accounts for 15 percent of global trade in corn and 10 percent of global wheat trade. It produces around half of the world’s sunflower oil.

The armed conflict has cut off exports of such produce, with Russia continuing to blockade grain at Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, especially Odesa.

This stranglehold is especially been felt in countries dependent on imports of Ukrainian grain and cooking oil, such as India [which is still neutral in the conflict] and Egypt.

Yet the ripple effects go much wider.

In May, the UN Security Council warned that hunger levels around the world have reached “a new high” adding that tens of millions could face long-term famine due to the war.

3. Energy Security

Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas worldwide; the second-largest supplier of crude oil, and the third-largest coal exporter.

Up until the war, three-quarters of its gas and nearly half of its crude oil had been going to Europe. In 2020, Russian oil, gas and coal accounted for a quarter of the EU’s energy consumption. Instead of investing the earnings in domestic development, Putin chose to establish a kleptocratic regime that repressed its own people.

Now the EU is seeking to end its reliance on Russian energy.

4. Price Increases & Inflation

Shortages of both food and energy have played into a huge change around the world since Putin started his “special military operation” in Ukraine: Prices have shot up.

A UN food security expert warned in May that the world has only a 10-week supply of wheat left. Prices for food in particular are soaring.

Inflation [that is, less buying power as prices go up] more than doubled worldwide in the year since March 2021.

Yet inflation is predicted to hit lower-income countries even harder.

5. A Splintered World Order

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has left its mark on geopolitics as well.

We can expect a renewed split into East and West geopolitical and economic blocs, with Russia and China on one side, and the EU and the U.S. leading the other. There is little hope that there will be a renaissance and rejuvenation of the NonAlignment Movement (NAM). In the era of multiple crises, each country is looking towards its own vital national interests. There are no international leader(s) of stature to take matters into their hands.

India is increasingly leaning towards the West as it is anchored in the U.S.-led IndoPacific Strategy (IPS) and a stalwart of the “Quad”.

Nepal will be buffeted by winds from all directions and will need a firm hand.