• Nepal *Sri lanka *Russia & Ukraine

Nepal’s RPP: Dire State of the Nation

Shri Rajendra Lingden, the Chairman of the opposition Rashtriya Prajatantra Party [RPP/National Democratic Party] has stated that under the current political dispensation and the present political establishment, the Nepali state system has become “a pile of chaos and anomalies.” He was addressing the party’s central committee meeting held in Kathmandu last Thursday. (my Republica, July 21).

Lingden left it unsaid, but he was in, fact, questioning the current Constitution per se and its republican, secular set up.

He also claimed that Nepali nationalism was in crisis due to the inaction and failure of the ruling parties – the “Gang of Five” in the ruling alliance, as well as, the main opposition of Oily’s CPNUML.

In Nepal, party and political calculations always trump the national interest.

Lingden expressed concern over the increased influence of foreign states in the internal affairs of the country. He was alluding to the attempts by India and China to micro-manage Nepali domestic and foreign policies.

Nepal had become a playground for foreign interference due to the servile attitude of the leaders of the major political parties.

The way the government and the opposition handled MCC and SPP are cases in point. Both cases were definitely in the national interest, but absurdly vested interests and manipulated social media managed to convert them into ‘insidious national dangers’. It would have been very amusing, if it were not treacherous and traitorous for a highly educated Communist like Dr. Bhim Bahadur Rawal to launch a one-man show/ demonstration in parliament against the SPP.

He claims to be inspired by “Marxism”. If this ideology and policy proclaimed by the German political philosopher Karl Marx was attuned to achieve a political system which demanded “from each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs,” then all persons of good faith would be Marxists.

Unfortunately, Marxism was corrupted by Lenin and Stalin – and very much later in Nepal by Pushpa Kamal Dahal (PKD) or the self-styled “Prachanda”. “Prachanda Path” has no place in Nepal, and PKD must be kept out of power – at all costs.

In both the domestic and external arenas, he accused the government of imbalance and anarchy. Lingden hit the nail on the head, when he stated that instability and geopolitical imbalance in the country are due to the servile attitude of the major political parties.

They have strayed too far from the Great King Prithvi Narayan Shah’s dictum of strategic balance and equidistance from both Beijing and New Delhi.

“Prithvi’s Dictum” has further evolved into Nepal’s foreign policy of dynamic non-alignment: not participating in any way in the regional and international conflicts, whether:

Between India and Pakistan Between China and India Between the U.S. and China

Between the U.S. & Western Powers and Russia.

No other country in the world is so strategically geopolitically placed at the crossroads of multiple conflicts.

This requires diplomatic finesse, which, unfortunately, the nation does not practice. Instead of statesmen, we have nincompoops. However, as a responsible and active member of the United Nations – and a major contributor to U.N. Peace Keeping Operations – we have to judge each issue on its own merits and not shy away from ‘calling a spade, a spade’.

Dr. Rawal himself is also on the wrong track – not being a real Marxist, but a “LeninistStalinist” who not only opposes, but suppresses – by violent means if necessary – democratic thought and practices.

Sri Lanka Taking Wrong Turn – Again?

Ranil Wickremesinghe, who had been prime minister [also for a very short time], was elevated to president [with executive powers] by lawmakers last week – apparently seen as a safe pair of hands to lead Sri Lanka out of the crisis, even though, he too was very much suspect as part of the political elite and a target of the demonstrations.

Last Friday, he appointed as prime minister a Rajapaksa ally, Dinesh Gunawardana, who is 73 and from a prominent political family (AP/ Associated Press, July 22). Choosing a PM with close ties to the political establishment that the whole country blames for the country’s political and economic collapse, Wickremesinghe clearly indicated that he was not – yet – ready to address the concerns of the protesters from all ethnic and religious groups and from all walks of life.

After his election in a parliamentary vote last week, Wickremesinghe told lawmakers that the people “are not expecting the old politics from us.” However, his actions belied his words. His recent moves signaled an inclination to maintain the status quo.

Last Monday, when he was acting president, Wickremesinghe declared a state of emergency giving him the power to change or suspend laws and giving him the power to change or suspend laws and giving authorities broad power to search premises and detail people.

Overnight, just hours after he was sworn in, he issued a notice under the state of emergency calling on the armed forces to maintain law and order nationwide – clearing the way for a forceful move against demonstrators.

Sri Lankan armed forces then violently cleared the main protest camp of demonstrators clearly outraged by the country’s economic meltdown as the newly elected and deeply unpopular president put army troops in the streets of the capital Colombo to maintain order.

The troops moved in even though protesters had announced they would vacate the site voluntarily. Security forces were seen beating at least two journalists during the overnight raid, and the bar association said two lawyers were also assaulted.

These heavy-handed tactics were denounced by the opposition, the UN and the U.S.

China Offers Support

Chinese President Xi Jinping offered Sri Lanka’s new president his support, as the Indian Ocean island grapples with its worst economic crisis since independence from Britain in 1948 (Reuters).

Xi said he believes Sri Lanka will be able to move towards economic and social recovery and he is ready to provide support and assistance to the best of his ability.

Sri Lanka owes at least US $ Dollar 5 billion to China although some estimates put it at almost twice that amount.

In addition, India has also lent it US $ Dollar 3.8 billion and Japan is owed at least US $ Dollar 3.5 billion, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), with another US $ Dollar 1 billion due to other rich countries.

Putin’s Ukraine War

The “Istanbul Accord” to Export Ukrainian Grain

The world’s breadbasket is back! There is the raging war in Ukraine with Russia raining death and destruction on innocent civilians, including children.

In spite of this, through the good offices of the United Nations and Turkey, Russia and Ukraine signed separate agreements with the facilitators clearing the way for the export of millions of tons of desperately needed Ukrainian grain as well as Russian grain and fertilizer – across the Black Sea [which is connected to the Mediterranean Sea through the narrow straits of Bosporus and Dardanelles in Turkey] (AP/ Associated Press, July 23).

The long-sought deal ends a wartime standoff that has threatened food security around the globe.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu [reputed to be a possible successor of Putin] and Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov signed separate, identical agreements last Friday with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar at a ceremony in Istanbul that was witnessed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Russia and Ukraine would not sign any deal directly with each other. But nevertheless, it is a short term win-win situation for both sides. Today, there is a beacon on the Black Sea,” Guterres said. “A beacon of hope, a beacon of possibility, a beacon of relief in a world that needs it more than ever.”

Guterres described the deal as an unprecedented agreement between two parties engaged in a bloody conflict.

Erdogan hoped it would be “a new turning point that will revive hopes for peace.”

Yet in Kyiv, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba sounded a more somber note.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy echoed Kuleba’s concerns in his nightly video address.

He was indeed prescient: “It is clear to everyone that there may be some provocations on the part of Russia, some attempts to discredit Ukrainian and international efforts. But we trust the U.N.” According to the Atlantic Council (July 23):

The agreement is a “stunning development” that could amount to “a major boom for Ukraine’s economy.”

For the first time, diplomacy has achieved a tangible result since Moscow started its unprovoked offensive.

Russia also gained three kinds of successes in Istanbul: “facesaving, time-saving, and costsaving”.

It can now also sell its fertilizer and agricultural products unimpeded, and its military can take a tactical pause to regroup its forces in the south of Ukraine, where it now suffering major losses.

Russian Missiles Hit Ukrainian Port Odesa Endangering Grain Deal

Just as the Ukrainian leadership had prognosticated, Russian missiles hit Ukraine’s southern port of Odesa last Saturday – less than 24 hours after the landmark deal to unblock grain exports from Black Sea ports and ease global food shortages caused by Russia’s unprovoked war.

Russia’s defence ministry set out a cock-and-bull story that sea-based, high-precision long-range missiles destroyed a docked Ukrainian warship and a warehouse with Harpoon anti-ship missiles supplied by the U.S. to the Kyiv regime.

This is a clear indication that Vladimir Putin speaks with a forked tongue and/or that in the Russian civil/military leadership the right hand doesn’t know what the left hand ‘s doing. It is also possible that rogue elements are at play or that the leadership is not hundred percent behind the deal and have given their accent only grudgingly because of the tremendous international pressure.

Putin has shown that he is like a snake in the grass. What say his enthusiastic but asinine aficionados to Putin’s missile (not) war from the far distance?

Two Russian Kalibr missiles hit infrastructure at the Odesa port, while another two were shot down by air defence forces.

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres “unequivocally condemned” the reported strikes. Ukraine, as a responsible stakeholder, continues to prepare to restart grain exports from Odesa and two other Black Sea ports. Ukraine on Path to Victory According to most military experts, Ukraine probably cannot “win”, if victory is defined as recovering all internationally recognized Ukrainian territory, and dealing a decisive military defeat to Russia in the field (Richard D. Hooker, Jr.: Atlantic Council, July 20).

However, “Russia is reeling from high casualties, depleted stocks of high-tech munitions, low morale, severe losses among senior commanders and inferior generalship” (Hooker).

Moreover, according to Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College, London, Putin made a classic strategic mistake in Ukraine “underestimating the enemy, assuming it to be weak at its core, while having excessive confidence in what his own forces could achieve” (Foreign Affairs, July/ August 2022).

This was the same mistake made by Napoleon and Hitler when they attacked Russia/the Soviet Union. Putin does not even know his own country’s history!

Given essential capabilities, Ukraine can definitely win. In terms of manpower, despite heavy losses per date Ukraine – in spite of being a far smaller country – can mobilize more able troops than Russia.

Virtually the entire Russian army has been committed inside Ukraine, including units stripped from the Far East and the Kaliningrad exclave on the Baltic Sea.

Putin cannot resort to full military mobilization without putting his regime at great risk. On the other hand, Ukraine’s manpower advantage will only increase. Russia enjoys a clear superiority in airpower and long range missiles which are targeting areas in the whole country and enabling incremental advances. The West must do much more to provide the necessary hardware to stop Russia in its tracks!

Even today, Ukraine would be in a better position if the West had supplied weapons much faster, and the military hardware had been essential and more superior.

The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com