Election likely on 20 November; will five-party electoral alliance continue?

The government is likely to announce the general election date within a few days. When the Election Commission had, weeks back, suggested the government hold the elections in a single phase on 18 November and provide the EC with a minimum period of 120 days to hold the elections of the House of Representatives and the provincial assemblies, the government may fix the date by Friday.

A few days ago, Chief Election Commissioner Dinesh Thapaliya said at a programme that the election date was likely to be announced after July 31. The EC Chief said this intending to allow the voters to be listed in the voters’ list throughout July. But by August 3, the government has not announced the date. However, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and ministers representing the Nepali Congress have been claiming that the election date would be announced soon. Prime Minister Deuba on Tuesday instructed the government secretaries and ministers to complete the preparations for polls as soon as possible. Speaking at a review meeting of the fiscal year 2021/22 at Singh Durbar, he gave such instruction hinting that he would soon announce the election date.

However, the CPN (Maoist Centre), one of the ruling parties, is reportedly intending to hold the polls only in February. The media close to the Maoist Centre have, of late, publishing news that elections in November were impossible as the EC would not get 120 days to prepare when the date was not announced on August 2.

But when PM Deuba himself gave instructions to secretaries to complete preparations for the elections and said that the elections would be held within a few months. The election will probably be held on November 20, and the government will announce the date within one or two days.

Will the present coalition continue?

As the government is preparing to announce the election dates, questions are being raised about whether the present coalition will continue till the elections. At a time when Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and CPN (Maoist Centre) chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal have been reiterating that the present coalition will continue till the elections, Madhav Kumar Nepal of the CPN (Unified Socialist) has said that the coalition will last even after the general elections. However, Nepal has also expressed dissatisfaction with the present coalition. But when the ruling parties have a common goal of bringing the CPN-UML in size, they have no option but to continue the coalition. Moreover, for Madhav Kumar Nepal, remaining in the coalition is an issue of survival because if he quits the coalition his party is sure to collapse. Although Janata Samajwadi Party Nepal chair Upendra Yadav has improved his relations with the UML, he may also not quit the coalition.

But CPN-UML chair KP Oli has been using his all might for breaking the coalition because if the ruling coalition contests elections jointly, the situation of the UML will be worse than the NC faced in the 2017 polls. He has been trying his best to break the coalition. On Tuesday, he called on the leftist forces outside the ruling coalition to get united.

Speaking at a programme organised in Lalitpur in the memory of late leader Tulsilal Amatya on Tuesday, Oli urged the Communist forces to get united instead of electoral coordination. Hinting at the CPN (Maoist Centre) and CPN (Unified Socialist), Oli reiterated that unity was possible even with those in the alliance if they came out of the coalition. He even requested CPNML’s CP Mainali, who was sharing the same stage, for party unity. Claiming that only those with ill intentions were talking about the electoral alliance, he proposed to Mainali that they should move forward by uniting the party.