• Nepal & SCO *Central & South Asia *US & China *Ukraine
Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Nepal Promoted to Observer
Nepal is being elevated to observer status – a step above dialogue partner and one just below full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This would not have been possible without the full support of its two most powerful members and Nepal’s immediate neighbours.
The SCO is a Eurasian political, economic and security organization. Its eight fullfledged members are currently: China, India, Kazachstan, Krgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan.
In terms of geographic scope, population and economy, the SCO is the world’s largest regional organization, covering approximately 60 percent of the area of Eurasia, 40 percent of the world’s population and more than 30 percent of global GDP. The SCO is widely regarded as the “Alliance of he East”, due to its growing centrality in Asia-Pacific, and has been the primary security pillar of the greater region, but is nowhere a military alliance like the NATO. The SCO is governed by the “Heads of State Council” (HSC), its supreme decision-making body which meets once a year. Since the heads of state of many countries are mere figureheads and do not wield any power, in practical terms, the HSC is composed of the executive heads of state and/or governments. India and Pakistan are, therefore, always represented by their prime ministers. Military exercises are also conducted regularly among members to promote cooperation and coordination against terrorism and other external [and domestic?] threats, and to maintain regional peace and stability.
SCO also serves to promote cooperation of member states against “the three evils of terrorism, separatism and extremism” [these are nothing more and nothing less than pure and simple: ‘domestic threats’]. Thus, Nepal should be extremely happy to have achieved ‘observer status’ and not strive for more. It can participate without having to take any stand on complicated issues. Full membership would only entail more duties, which Nepal in its present state of ‘external affairs disarray’ is not in a position to comply with.
It is indeed a ‘fairy tale’ that Nepal has lately taken a ‘Western tilt’ by accepting the MCC [but ironically rejecting the SPP, which is merely military cooperation in the field of disaster management], circulating in the ‘chatterati’ media, government circles, political parties and the socalled pundits of foreign policy.
Central Asia’s Importance for South Asia
Recent developments have highlighted how Central Asia increasingly plays a crucial role in the geopolitics of South Asia. Last week, Uzbekistan hosted two major summits with consequences for South Asia. The first was an international conference on Afghanistan. This produced few tangible initiatives, but it did bring nearly 30 countries together to engage with the Taliban.
In the second, the foreign ministers from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) – a multilateral group that aims to promote stability across the whole of Eurasia [Russia east of the Urals across the whole Asian landmass, encompassing also Japan] – gathered in Tashkent, the capital, for a meeting focused on.
The SCO meeting is expected to pave the way for a leaders’ summit in Tashkent in September.
It also brought Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and his Pakistani counterpart, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, to the same table for the first with sinter national.
These events underscore how Central Asia has emerged as a major factor in South Asia’s own geopolitics. The region affects South Asia in several key ways.
First, the two summits demonstrate how some Central Asian countries, especially Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, have emerged as key diplomatic players.
In recent years, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have held conferences on Afghanistan and hosted Taliban delegations. Central Asian states overlap in multiple international groups with South Asian members, including the SCO – which added India and Pakistan in 2017 – and the “Heart of Asia – Istanbul Process, an Afghanistan— focused entity.
Second, Central Asia has a major geographical impact on South Asia.
Three Central Asian states – Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan – border Afghanistan. The region serves as a gateway to Russia and the Middle East/ West Asia, both of which are critical areas for many South Asian states.
Russia has good relations with most governments in the two regions – not just India – and many have refrained from criticizing its invasion of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the Middle East is a key source of energy imports, remittances, and other support, especially for India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Sri Lanka and Nepal are also highly dependent on remittances.
In addition, three Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – as well as, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India border China’s strategic Xinjiang Autonomous Region, with implications for the ongoing Sino-Indian and Indo-Pakistani conflicts.
Sino-American Virtual Summit & Mutual Warnings
The leaders of the United States and China have warned each other over Taiwan during a phone call that lasted over two hours.
President Joe Biden told his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, that the U.S. strongly opposed any unilateral moves to change the island’s international status. He added that US policy on Taiwan had not changed (BBC, July 29).
On his part, Xi warned Biden not to “play with fire” when it comes to Taiwan, Chinese state media said (AP).
This occurred as US House speaker Nancy Pelosi plans a potential trip to the selfgoverning [but not independent] island republic.
The two presidents also discussed trade issues, the war in Ukraine and the possibility of a future in-person meeting.
The Chinese military has made clear that it will take strong countermeasures if such a high US delegation were to visit the island in the Western Pacific. U.S. forces are reportedly planning to increase their own activity [in what they themselves designate] as the geo-political Indo-Pacific if Pelosi’s visit does take place (SCMP/South China Morning Post).
Shi Yinhong, an International Relations professor at Renmin University in Beijing, said that if Pelosi visits Taiwan it would prompt the strongest countermeasures by Beijing in years, but he did not expect that to trigger a major military conflict (Reuters, Aug. 1).
Expert U.S. Analysis
This is a crisis in the making “manufactured by China”, one with the potential to shake the global economic order given that Taiwan produces the major share of the world’s most advanced semi-conductors, said Richard Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).
“Should a crisis spiral into conflict, it would also fundamentally challenge the Indo-Pacific strategic order, as U.S. allies and others would expect Washington to come to Taipei’s defence.”
The Stimson Center’s Yun Sun writes: “Chinese leaders are increasingly enraged over U.S. actions that they see as hollowing out Washington’s ‘one China policy’ and Taiwanese actions – both domestic legislation and international outreach – that they interpret as moves toward independence,” (Foreign Affairs).
Different Perspectives
The Biden administration has been considering whether to lift Trump-era tariffs on Chinese goods imported into the U.S. which would not only have been a sign of goodwill but would also criticizing the Biden, missed a golden opportunity and did not raise this issue.
Most analysts believe that both Joe Biden and Xi Jinping do want to avoid an open conflict. However neither has made any attempt to alter their competing narratives which was shown by their contrasting statements about the call (BBC).
The White House said it was part of efforts to “responsibly manage differences” and work together where “interests align”.
Beijing said many of their interests, in fact, do align. But it blamed the US for the deteriorating relationship, criticizing the Biden administration’s view of China as a “primary rival” and Washington’s “most serious long-term challenge”.
Biden himself was against Pelosi’s Taiwan trip of solidarity. It should have been kept under wraps until its completion. Now undue publicity has made it a blatant provocation, and the Chinese are naturally ‘mad’. As the saying goes: ‘let sleeping dogs [of war] lie’.
Putin’s War: Ukraine Seeks to Retake the South
The Ukrainians have used American-supplied rocket launchers to strike bridges and military infrastructure in the south, forcing Russia to divert its forces from the Donbas in the east to counter the new threat. Ukraine may eventually launch a massive counter-attack involving large numbers of troops and weapons.
Ukraine may see an opportunity to land a sort of more smashing blow on the Russians and push them back.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister: Putin Must be Stopped!
In an opinion piece in The New York Times, Ukraine’s dynamic foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba made a very strong and convincing case for not believing Putin’s lies and abject propaganda (July 30-31). He writes that no one should be fooled into believing that Russia is ready for a cease-fire and that the door to negotiations has always been wide open.
Rather: “Russia remains focused on war and aims to ruin Ukraine and the West.”
The fact of the matter is quite simple: “Putin will not stop until he is stopped.”
Kuleba argues that a durable, lasting peace – rather than “the time-bomb of a frozen conflict” is only possible after Russia suffers a major battleground defeat.
Only when Ukraine is winning, will Putin seek peace. Currently, Russia is not serious about ending the conflict.
Putin only understands the language of force. For this reason, the West must continue to strengthen Ukraine militarily, by speeding up deliveries of advanced artillery pieces and armored vehicles, and economically with additional financial assistance.
Sanctions must also be increased, Russian exports targeted, its banks banned and its access to maritime trade restricted. This is all necessary to bring Putin down to size. Kuleba also makes clear that Western military assistance to Ukraine is not charity. It is, in fact, a necessary investment in Europe’s long-term security – when Putin is stopped in his tracks.
An unintended, but welcome consequence of this armed conflict – Europe’s largest land war since the Second World War – will be that the Ukrainian armed forces will emerge as one of the continent’s most capable military forces – and a bulwark on its eastern frontiers.
Putin must also be stopped because he is weaponizing energy and food, deliberately driving up global prices. Ukraine is determined to turn the tide in its favour and eject the Russian invaders out of its land.
Any Russian fake peace proposals must be roundly rejected. The narrative of war fatigue is also misplaced. A defeated army cannot dictate the terms of a peace settlement. Ukraine will endure, because: “The price of losing – a crushed Ukraine, a shattered West and a resurgent Russia – is too high to contemplate.”