+ Nepal’s External Relations + russo-Ukrainian War + The Taiwan Crisis + Xi Jinping’s Worldview
Nepal’s Foreign Relations in the Dumps
We are all aware that the present alliance government has achieved next to nothing in the domestic sphere.
Just take one area. It is completely ignoring the pathetic state of waste management in the capital city leaving it to the hapless mayor to do the needful. Meanwhile, the line ministers are doing nothing but twiddling their thumbs!
It is no better in external affairs. Under the alliance regime, the country has gone from bad (Oily’s government) to worse (Deuba’s cohabitation with the utterly corrupt and incompetent Communists).
In trying to please every country, Deuba’s mis-governance in external affairs has pleased none. The ship of state has no steering wheel [let alone a ‘great helmsman’], and on top of that is rudderless! It is virtually between Scylla and Charybdis!
It has made a mess of its cooperation with the United States – the MCC and SPP are still fresh in memory – with the result that Deuba’s official visit to ‘Amrika’ has been postponed sine die. Foreign Minister Dr. Narayan Khadga and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) did not conduct themselves very ‘diplomatic’ by dilly-dallying his official (return) visit to China. However, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. Let us see if Khadga achieves anything about the Chinese grant assistance announced with great fanfare during Xi Jinpin’s state visit to Kathmandu.
Nepal’s Standing in Asia [not the World!]
Power can be defined as the capacity of a state to direct or influence the behavior of other states, non-state actors and the course of international events. The prestigious Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia measures power in two ways. Its ‘Power Index’ distinguishes between resource-based determinants of power -- in other words what countries have – and influencebased determinants of power – what countries do with what they have.
It is remarkable that in a match-up of 26 countries in Asia [including the U.S. as a Western Pacific Asian power and not including Afghanistan, Maldives and Bhutan because of lack of reliable data], Nepal was second-last in the list of ‘comprehensive power’ – just before Papua New Guinea and just after Mongolia!
The first five were:
1. U.S.
2. China
3. Japan
4. India
5. Russia
The other countries of South Asia were listed as:
15. Pakistan
19. Bangladesh
20. Sri Lanka
Nepal was extremely weak as regards the four requisite factors in the exercise of power: economic capability, military capability, resilience, and future resources. It was equally deficient in the four measures assessing levels of regional influence: economic relationships, defence networks, diplomatic influence and cultural influence.
Thus, we have it from the horse’s mouth that Nepal is a woeful case of ‘lost opportunities’.
Russo-Ukrainian War: Decisive, Forthcoming “Battle of Kherson”
Battlefield developments indicate that the geographical focus of Putin’s unprovoked war in Ukraine seems to be shifting from east to south.
On the one hand, Ukraine’s military is stepping up efforts to liberate Kherson.
The unfolding campaign to regain control over this strategically vital southern city is likely to be the most significant military engagement since the “Battle of Kyiv” [which the invading Russian army lost unexpectedly, but crucially] and could prove decisive in determining the ultimate outcome of the entire war (Peter Dickenson/UkraineAlert, August 2).
For all intents and purposes, Putin’s entire ‘Ukraine Project/ Invasion’ hinges on the coming “Battle of Kherson”.
Preparations for a major Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south of the country have been undertaken long-back in May. After weeks of minor advances in the surrounding countryside that have enabled the Ukrainian armed forces to liberate more than 50 towns and villages, there is now a mounting sense that the pivotal military engagement is just around the corner.
Implications of a Ukrainian Victory
A Ukrainian victory in the forthcoming battle would undoubtedly have major psychological and practical implications for both antagonists. It would demonstrate critically to the international community – all of Western supporters, Russiabackers (China) and fence-sitters (India) – that the Ukrainian armed forces are very much capable of forcing Russia to retreat from wellestablished defensive positions. More crucially, it would convince Ukraine’s supporters and partners (above all NATO and the EU) to continue providing military and financial support, i.e. Ukraine is not a ‘lost cause’, and that there is no necessity – yet – to seek the negotiating table.
At the same time, a defeat in Kherson would be personally humiliating for Vladimir Putin as the ‘supreme commander-in-chief, the top military establishment in Moscow, and spark further demoralization within the ranks of the depleted invasion force. It could very well be the ‘beginning of the end’ of Putin’s ill-fated ‘Ukrainian adventure’!
Kherson’s fate will probably shape the future direction of Putin’s war. It is the sole regional capital captured by the Russian military and the only major city on the western side of the Dnipro River [Ukraine’s main river] currently in Russian hands. It thus holds the key to Russian ambitions in southern Ukraine.
Moscow must retain control over Kherson in order to achieve its goal of advancing to the port-city of Odesa and occupying Ukraine’s entire Black Sea coastline. If Ukraine re-conquers the city, Russia will be confined to the left bank and will face the prospect of further counter-offensives aiming to push the Russians out of southern Ukraine altogether. US House Speaker Expresses ‘Unwavering’ Support for Taiwan US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, along with six other Democratic lawmakers, arrived in Taipei last Tuesday night in an unannounced – yet highly anticipated – visit, protested strongly by Beijing (DW/Deutsche Welle, Aug. 3). Pelosi is the highest-ranking US politician to visit Taiwan in 25 years.
“We come in friendship to Taiwan. We come in peace to the region,” Pelosi said during televised remarks at the start of her talks. Pelosi said she was seeking to increase parliamentary exchanges with Taipei. She also spoke about a new US legislation that could provide cooperation in the semiconductor industry between the US and Taiwan, one of the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturers.
“We commend Taiwan for being one of the freest societies in the world,” Pelosi told Taiwan’s parliament.
Later, after meeting with President Tsai Ing-wen, Pelosi said: “The story of Taiwan is an inspiration to all freedom-loving people.”
“Now more than ever, America’s solidarity with Taiwan is crucial, and that is the message we’re bringing today,” she said.
Pelosi also met with Hong Kong and Taiwan pro-democracy activists later in the day.
China’s Response
The foreign ministry summoned US Ambassador Nicholas Burns late on Tuesday and warned that Washington “shall pay the price” for Pelosi’s visit.
“The move is extremely egregious in nature and the consequences are extremely serious,” China’s Deputy Foreign Minister Xie Feng said, according to the state news agency Xinhua.
Beijing had threatened repercussions to the visit, and announced that it would launch live-fire military drills around Taiwan from Thursday to Sunday. Before Pelosi’s arrival, Chinese warplanes buzzed the median line dividing the Taiwan Strait. China’s Defence Ministry also said the military was put on high alert and would launch “targeted military operations,” in response to the visit.
Japanese Reaction
Tokyo raised concerns over the military exercises, with government spokesman Hirokazu Matsuno saying they overlapped with Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
“Considering the live-fire training nature of this military activity, Japan has expressed concerns to the Chinese side,” Matsuno told reporters.
China Extends ‘War Games’ Around Taiwan
China said Monday it was extending its threatening military exercises surrounding Taiwan that have disrupted shipping and air traffic (AP/Associated Press, Aug. 8).
This has substantially raised concerns about the potential for armed conflict in a region crucial to global trade.
There was no immediate indication of when it would end what amounts to a blockade. In peacetime, blockades are generally seen as an aspect of reprisals and may be instituted by the UN Security Council, but under International Law are forbidden to individual states. Thus, the legality of the quarantine imposed by the U.S. on Cuba in 1962 to prevent Soviet missiles reaching the island was highly questionable.
In response, Taiwan has announced its army will conduct live-fire artillery drills in southern Pingtung county, in response to the Chinese exercises.
The latest developments are narrowing any window for winning over the self-ruled island through negotiations.
Analysts write: “Beijing’s shock and awe tactics may deepen skepticism in Taiwan that it could ever reach a peaceful and lasting settlement with the Chinese Communist Party, especially while Xi Jinping is its leader” (NYT, Aug. 9).
According to Asian experts, if China continues its war games, and Taiwan ups the ante as reaction, the region may spiral into a renewed crisis with various powers getting involved – and the possibility of a miscalculated or accidental armed conflict very much in the near horizon.
Xi Jinping’s Mindset & World View
According to a write-up in The New York Times, Xi has expressed his views privately more than a decade ago with both President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden (Aug. 8).
Sino-American relations then were not strained, and Xi was still in the process of cementing his power base and was worried about the grip on power of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Xi had speculated that China could be a target of “Colour Revolutions” – a Russian conception designating popular unrest in the name of democracy, for which the West was made responsible.
The then “Arab Spring” uprisings across the Middle East had reinforced his concerns that China could be vulnerable to corruption and inequality.
Daniel R. Russel, the American diplomat who accompanied Biden to China in 2011 says: “Xi couldn’t have been more forthright that China is beset by malevolent forces.”
Such fears have defined the era of Xi. He has pursued an allencompassing drive to expand the meaning of “national security”. He has bolstered the party’s control on all fronts against any perceived threats abroad that could exploit weakness at home, according to the NYT.
“He has strengthened, centralized and emboldened an already pervasive security apparatus, turning it into a hulking fortress that protects him and positions him as the most powerful leader
since Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.”
Xi has constructed a “comprehensive system” designed for a world he sees as determined to obstruct China – politically, economically, socially, militarily and technologically.
US House Speaker’s Visit to Taiwan
Nancy Pelosi’s provocative and ill-timed visit to Taiwan will reconfirm Xi’s worldview that the U.S. and its allies will exploit any potential weakness and that China must, therefore, demonstrate unwavering vigilance.
Xi resolutely mobilized the military off the coast of Taiwan, sending the unmistakable warning that China wants to severely limit US backing for what it considers part and parcel of the motherland.
National Security Writ Large
As Xi prepares to be elected to an unprecedented third term as leader at the CCP congress this autumn, he has already signaled that national security will be high on the agenda. Domestic tensions over pandemic restrictions and a cooling economy, and external super-power confrontation deepened by Russia’s aggressive war in Ukraine are part of a constant stream of challenges.
Former US diplomat Russel [now vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute] laments that it is most worrisome that Xi no longer makes a distinction between internal and external security.
“Xi Jinping is determined to take more forceful action – preventive action, but also preemptive action – and use the various tools at his disposal to meet those threats and to break through what he sees as a stranglehold of the West.”