Nepal is the Next Spot for a High Voltage Triangular Brawl of the Big Three

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Kathmandu: In the New York Times on August 3, columnist Steven Erlanger in his fresh article on Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan visit writes obliquely that Europe does not support the independence of Taiwan and recognizes Beijing as the seat of Chinese power.

The columnist further says that what matters more to the European nations is, what he claims, keeping open trade with China and its huge market.

Several European nations “enjoy friendly” ties with China -- the immediate rival of the lone Super Power USA. In addition, some even are signatories to China's Belt and Road Initiative, BRI.

Thus the increasing intimacy of the European countries for a variety of political and economic reasons with China is somewhat a sort of permanent headache for the USA which has at the moment bitter relations with China, the supposed emerging power in the world. The US-China ties are suffering the worst in recent years.

Having said that, Steven hastens to add that while joining Washington in trying to prevent any military aggression against Taiwan, however, the European nations will in all likelihood not help defend Taiwan militarily as against the wishes of President Joe Biden who prefers to defend Taiwan at all costs.

The fact is that the European countries also take note of the fact that China and Russia have forged a sort of partnership instantly after the muchpublicized Russian invasion of Ukraine in early February this year. Needless to say, the China-Russia coalition is a threat not only to the US but also to the entire European nations who are supposedly close to the US on many issues. This does mean that though the European nations are excessively close to the US as allies, however, on several counts these countries differ on how to behave and treat China that greatly differs from the stances that the US has toward China. In a way, the US is also losing its clout in the European Union for understandable political and economic reasons. Several European Countries have entered into trade and businesses with China and thus it becomes very difficult for these countries to annoy their trading partner China only to satisfy the line acquired by the US. This way the US's tight grip in Europe is lessening significantly. For instance, there are a few countries which have signed agreements like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) of China thus they find it difficult to go against China at a single stretch much to the disadvantage of the US.

Taking a clue from the recent Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan Strait, what could well be easily said is that not so many countries of Europe exhibited their unequivocal support to the hardened US's stance (at times) over Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan on August 2.

Yes, the entire European countries wish that China acquires a flexible and democratic posture over not only Taiwan but also Tibet and Hong Kong.

Isn’t it the time both for the US and China to make reconciliation efforts and ease the tension that has gripped world politics? Now to Phillip Bilsky: Phillip Bilsky writing in early August for the Deutsche Welle, German News Agency, asks whether Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan “Was it worth it”?

He says that Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan lasted for just 19 hours, yet now the threat of a possible war lurks over the horizon in and around Taiwan Straits. Nepali observers take the emerging scenario as dangerous in that any miscalculation could bring in both China and the rival US face to face and if it perchance happens may cause colossal damage to the countries directly involved in the war but also cause irreparable harm to those countries who deliberately or otherwise take part in this war either favouring the US and its allies or against China and its partners. Damage is for sure either way.

Bilsky, however, caring less for the Chinese concerns, says in the same article that for many Taiwan nationals “the much debated visit the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, was a complete success given that the visit has come at a time when, says Bilsky, China had increased its pressure on Taiwan by sending more and more fighter jets close to the island - almost a thousand in 2021 alone. He may be correct in his assessment and we have nothing to challenge his personal remarks, but yet the ground reality as it stands these days (more so after Nancy’s sudden trip), is that China at regular intervals has been sounding to the US and its allies scattered across the globe that “Taiwan island is an integral and inalienable part of China and that the Western powers must not come in between mainland China and its integral part Taiwan. However, Taiwan thinks differently than mainland China considers Taiwan. Taiwan takes itself as a fully independent and sovereign nation which has nothing to do with mainland China and Taiwan being an independent nation has the authority to forge ties with countries across the globe including the US and the developed Western countries. Taiwan’s stance, however, is strongly contested by the People's Republic of China (PRC) which claims Taiwan is an integral part of China. The claims and the counterclaims continue to keep the global population guessing as to which course the politics will take in the days ahead.

Upon greeting the visiting US dignitary on August 2 the lady President of Taiwan Tsai Ing-wen beamingly termed House Speaker Pelosi as “Taiwan’s most devoted friend”.

While Tsai Ing-wen was all praise for the US political lady Nancy then, on the other hand, China had instantly geared up military drills as a mark of disagreement or say dis-approval of the visit and was apparently ready to confront any likelihood of real conflict with the US and its allies who favour the US's standpoint on Taiwan. Sources say that Chinese military and air strength is already in the entire region which, it is reported, is as close as Taiwan.

The show of the military strength of China even continues today, as international media agencies report.

In a way, the entire area in and around Taiwan remains under China’s surveillance which in many more ways than one has terrified not only Taiwan but the adjoining countries in the region. And here is what Nancy Pelosi says of her mysterious trip to Taiwan.

Nancy said that she and the US delegation had come to make it "unequivocally clear" that the US would not "abandon" the island to the mercy of the Dragon. She further stated that "Forty-three years ago, America made a promise to always stand with Taiwan...today our delegation came to Taiwan to make it unequivocally clear we will not abandon our commitment to Taiwan”. Having said that, however, the visiting US dignitary forgot that her country through a joint communiqué signed back in 1972 accepts the One China Policy and with this acceptance, the US is obliged to honour the joint communiqué and the commitments made therein.

However, the fact is also that the US wants Taiwan to practice “democracy” in its fullest form so that the Taiwanese could enjoy the universal benefits of democracy. As per the historic 1972 Shanghai Communique official diplomatic agreement, the US unequivocally declares that, “there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China and that [the U.S] reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves”. The communique dates back to Richard Nixonian years when the US President had landed in Beijing.

Nixon took the risk to establish formal ties with China and it was definitely a breakthrough in bilateral ties which was good news for the world.

It was this US Presidential visit that contributed to the so far estranged US-China ties a new forward-looking dimension though a “complete and cordial” friendship could never be observed, as it stands today, between the two economic giants.

They still sharply differ on several pressing international issues including the recent one on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, over China’s underbelly Tibet and now Taiwan which the western allies take differently than the mainland Chinese regime.

Having read this joint approval of 1972, what becomes clear is that the US officials’ position on Taiwan is best to be decided by the Chinese themselves that mutually suits both. Thus Nancy’s statement made in Taiwan clearly goes against the 1972 joint US-China communiqué wherein the US itself has committed to abide by the “One China Policy”. Looking at the world news on Pelosi’s Taiwan trip, what becomes clear is that the US media writes less than what the Chinese media has been commenting on the visit. The US media comments on Nancy’s visit visibly are in a weakened state and on the other hand, the Chinese media have been following the Taiwan events in a much more aggressive way these days.

Needless to say, Chinese media outlets have been covering the news that suits China's official line then the US media is either ignoring the issue or at best left to the mercy of the time to get it settled.

Better late than never, the veteran US diplomat of contemporary times, Henry Kissinger too has not completely taken the side of the US.

Look at what he says, “We are at the edge of war with Russia and China on issues which we partly created without any concept of how this is going to end or what it's supposed to lead to.”

This clearly speaks that the ace diplomat too is not that happy with his own country’s political dealings over these days and months.

Enters the South Asian chameleon India:

South Asia’s regional scoundrel is glued to the US over these years only to deter and tease China, its nearest and dearest rival.

India got a humiliating and insulting defeat with China in the 1962 War and India inched closer to the US so that it could challenge China or with the hope that when the two confront, the US will come to its rescue.

Why the US is taking India as a friend is very difficult to understand.

Yes. The US too prefers to bring India into its orbit to weaken China. However, the fact is that India is the most unreliable partner of the US in that the latter must recall that the same chameleon India was all along the Cold War glued with the now defunct USSR (now the Russian Federation). Once a chameleon is always a chameleon and can’t be trusted.

Even as of today, the Indian regime is not that far from the Russian Federation and may ditch the US if and when it concludes that the benefit is sticking with the Russians.

For example, in Ukraine, India took the side of the Russians ditching the US, the boss of the Quad. Russian President Putin at best is using India to weaken the US. President Joe Biden must understand the Indian trick. Earlier the better if the US prefers to incur less damage. That chameleon India is riding two diametrically opposing boats in an ocean which is sure to sink sooner than later. A day will soon come when both the US and Russia will take India as untouchable for having cheated both at different intervals of time.

Having said that, at the moment, India is with the US until only it extracts benefits.

A fresh article written by Aniruddha Dhar for the Nikkei Asia on August 10 claims, “amid the ongoing tensions between China and the US following Nancy’s visit to Taiwan, the US and India have decided to conduct a “combat exercise” in Uttarakhand, bordering China, this October. “India has hosted the annual exercise in Uttarakhand before, including in 2014, 2016, and 2018. But those exercises were all conducted in the foothills, more than 300 km from the boundary. To recall, China and India even today are embroiled in border disputes.

“India and China have been locked in a border standoff since May 2020 and several rounds of military and diplomatic talks have only resulted in partial disengagement of troops from friction points, '' adds Aniruddha Dhar.

This US-India joint drill does tell that the chameleon regime in South Asia, India, is clearly with the US and endorses the Taiwan visit of Nancy Pelosi. One fine morning, the US will be ditched by India when the former will need the latter most. South Asian nations remain askance as to why the US has embraced India leaving its Cold War ally-Pakistan!

The biggest blunder the US is committing in South Asia is that it has deputed India as a Policeman ignoring its time tested allyPakistan.

This is simply puzzling and questions the political and diplomatic acumen of the US administration, to say the least.

Observers in Nepal opine that even if USA and Pakistan ties are strained at the moment with the ouster of PM Imran Khan, Pakistan for several geo-political reasons could be the best and trusted ally of the US if the latter approach Islamabad through track-2 diplomacy. It is a challenge for Antony Blinken to correct the bilateral ties that stand derailed now.

And China’s envoy in Nepal:

Talking to a Nepali media outlet in the early days of August, the Chinese envoy in Nepal said, “the trip of Nancy Pelosi is a serious violation of the one-China principle and the political foundation of China-US relations”. In a new development, the Maoist Speaker of Nepali Parliament, Agni Sapkota said on August 12 that Nepal is always committed to the one-China policy and that Nepal is always on alert and aware of not allowing Nepali land to be used against any neighbouring countries. Meanwhile, Nepali foreign minister Narayan Khadka has returned from Qingdao, China after meeting FM Wang Yi vowing to what China wants from Nepal. Nepal in a way too is riding two boats at a time.

Nepal is with the US and also can’t leave China as it is committed to the one-China policy with which the US has plenty of disagreements.

Not only this, the nextdoor enemy neighbour, India too is watching Nepal inching closer to both the US and China. To a limited level only, India will tolerate the US presence in Nepal. If the limit is exceeded, India may confront the US in Nepal through the active support of the domestic RAW posted agents. India may even treble the RAW investment in Nepal to counter the US or for that matter, the Chinese as India took Nepal as its “undeclared” extended territory which it is not. Chances are fair that Pelosi’s Taiwan visit may hit Nepal hard with the likely initiation of big power rivalries for an increased influence in India-controlled and dictated Nepal.

The three countries are China, India and the US -- a new entrant comparatively. Nepal should tighten its belt to face the triangular conflict that is in the making. God bless Indiacontrolled Nepal. That’s all.