Oli in difficult situation due to the ruling alliance

CPN-UML chair KP Sharma Oli is now under pressure as the ruling parties continue to corner him. Now he has no option but to contest the November 20 polls alone or by forging an alliance with smaller parties like Rastriya Prajatantra Party. Even the Loktantrik Samajwadi Party of Mahantha Thakur is not willing to forge alliance with Oli. If the ruling parties forge an electoral alliance and if they honestly implement it, the CPN-UML candidates may not win even 10 seats under the first-past-the-post electoral system. Even Oli himself will not be safe in Jhapa unless he is backed by the RPP. With the election approaching nearer and in lack of election issues, Oli seems unstable and he has started making harsh comments against the leaders of the ruling parties. Now he is planning to use the Citizenship Bill as a nationalist weapon by making the President resign over the issue. But people will not believe him because he had earlier issued a similar ordinance on citizenship which was issued by the president immediately. Obviously, UML has a strong organisation base in the hills. But after a split, it has become weaker in many districts. And if the NC, Maoist Centre and the Unified Socialist stand together, UML will be left behind. Even the local level elections have shown its weakening positions in its strongholds like Ilam and Pachthar. Because of the dissolution of the Houses twice, the party may not win elections in the urban areas whereas in the Tarai it has always fared poorly. And when it does not win elections in the Tarai and urban areas like Kathmandu where more seats are, the party is likely to turn smaller, probably third behind the NC and the Maoist Centre in the House of Representatives. Although Oli on Tuesday instructed the party leaders in the standing committee meeting on Tuesday to work in such a way that the party could form a majority government after the polls, in reality, the UML will be smaller than the present-day NC in the parliament.