• Ukraine: Russia on the Backfoot

Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Gains Momentum

After much speculation about a Ukrainian counteroffensive near the southern city of Kherson, the Institute for the Study of War reports Kyiv’s forces are “tangibly degrading Russian logistics and administrative capabilities in occupied southern Ukraine. Acknowledging the counteroffensive as truly underway, the War on the Rocks praises what it sees as a limited effort aimed where Russian forces are most vulnerable.

At The New Statesman, Lawrence Freedman writes: “After a period in which the fighting seemed stuck in a groove and was threatening to turn into an attritional slog, it may be about to enter a dynamic period.”

The British defence think tank RUSI suggests the current operation is a prelude: “We may… understand Ukrainian offensive operations to be implemented in three broad phrases: the Kherson offensive, a protracted period of asymmetric skirmishes and deep strikes to disrupt Russia’s occupation and demoralize its troops, and a period of major combat operations in 2023.” As Ukraine’s military purposes a nascent counteroffensive, the UK’s defence ministry suggests Ukrainian attacks in both the south and north will test the Russian army’s ability to coordinate – something at which Moscow’s forces failed during the war’s outset.

Germany’s leading news magazine Der Spiegel notes cautious optimism surrounding Kyiv’s effort. More Ukrainian soldiers and materiel have arrived near the southern front, but concerns linger over those troops training levels and Russian forces’ ability to dig in.