Hung parliament likely, political instability to continue

It is almost clear that the election result will again give a hung parliament as there is less chance of bagging a majority by any particular party. However, different political parties are developing electoral alliances for a better result in the 20 November election.

NC’s scenario:

This time, NC has a good opportunity to bag the largest seats in both the federal parliament and also in the provincial assemblies as NC is leading a five-party alliance.

Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, also president of the Nepali Congress, wants to demonstrate to his opponents within the party by making his party, NC, the largest one if not a majority party in the federal parliament during his tenure as the president. Therefore, he is trying his best for strengthening the present five-party alliance. He has even decided to expel all the rebel candidates from the party for five years. In the previous general election in 2017, NC became the second largest party as there was an electoral alliance between the UML and Maoist Center. This time, not only the Maoist Center but also the Unified Socialist-led by Madhav Nepal, Loktantrik Samajbadi Party led by

Mahanta Thakur and National People’s Front (Rastriya Jana Morcha) sided with the NC and comparatively, the NC candidates are secured. In the previous election, NC was alone, yet, with a thin margin, the party was defeated by the UML and MC alliance candidates. In this regard, NC is almost sure to become the largest party. Besides, the Indian ruling party BJP has extended support to the present alliance against the UML. This is the reason why Loktantrik Samajbadi Party, known to be the pro-Indian, joined the ruling alliance and why the Janata Samajbadi Party, led by Upendra Yadav, known to be the pro-West party, joined the UML in the last hours. India is not happy with K.P. Sharma Oli, chairman of the UML as during Oli’s tenure, the new map of Nepal was published by incorporating Nepali territory KalapaniLipulekh, presently occupied by India. Besides, earlier, Oli had taken stance on the promulgation of the present constitution despite Indian PM Narendra Modi’s request to postpone the promulgation date of the constitution. India wanted its ownership on the new constitution. Of late, President Bidya Devi Bhandari has kept pending the citizenship amendment bill. The provision of instantly providing Nepali citizenship to those married to Nepali nationals has been imposed under the instruction the Indians and UML is against immediately providing Nepali citizenship to foreigners married to Nepali nationals. From this also, the Indians are not happy with the UML. Maoist Center’s scenario: If contested election alone, there will be a tuff competition between the NC and UML and Maoist Center will be able to become the third largest party.

Pushpakamal Dahal Prachanda has understood this reality as the Maoist Center is continuously losing its popularity among the voters. Therefore, Prachanda became ready to join hands with the NC as his party was going to face the crisis of existence if not developed an alliance with a strong party.

Even after the five-party alliance, Prachanda was not sure about his victory in his home constituency, Chitwan 3. Therefore, he gave candidature from Gorkha 2 electoral constituency, where, many rural municipalities had won by the Maoist Center. Prachanda, after a special deal with Dr Baburam Bhattarai, has filed his candidature from Gorkha 2 constituency. Prachanda’s latest plan is to become the prime minister once again. The other plan is to make the Maoist Center the second largest party by pushing down the UML to the third position.

If the Maoist Center will become the second largest party, his bargaining power will increase and he will propose to Deuba for ruling the nation turn by turn – two and a half years by him and two and a half years by Deuba – with the blessings from Delhi.

UML’s strategy:

The UML is facing difficult times as it is compelled to face an election with the joint force of five parties. However, Oli has developed an electoral alliance with the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and also with the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP), at different levels. Also, Oli has developed an understanding of supporting the NC rebel candidates. The UML has already decided to support NC’s rebel candidate in the Chitwan 3 electoral constituency with an understanding of supporting UML candidates by the dissident group in the NC. Sekhar Koirala and Gagan Thapa, dissident leaders in NC are in close contact with Oli for exchanging cooperation with each other.

Oli believes that

his strong stance on nationalism will attract votes for the UML.

Be that as it may, it is a difficult time for the UML to secure the position of the second-largest party. It would be humiliating for the UML if the party will be degraded to the third position.

RPP’s future:

With the support of the UML, RPP may bag a minimum of three seats through the direct elections and also through the proportional election, it may add around one dozen seats as the RPP voters – supporters of the Hindu kingdom -- are scattered nationwide. Also, plus point for this party is that different three splinter RPPs have unified this time. Although Kamal Thapa has opened a new party, he has not been able to attract party cadres. Weakening Tarai-based parties:

The Tarai-based parties which are lauding the Tarai/Madhesh issues have become weak due to the frequent split and power politics of the leaders.

The unified Janata Samajbadi Party has split and the new party, Loktantrik Samajbadi Party, has emerged. Meanwhile, to counter the already established parties, the Janamat Party led by CK Raut has emerged.

The party leaders exploited the Tarai people a lot, therefore, established parties have become unpopular and in this election, JSP has developed an electoral alliance with the UML, whereas, the LSP has joined the five-party alliance. They are unable to contest elections alone.

Five years ago, the Tarai-based parties were able to form their own government by sidelining the mainstream parties in the Madhesh Province. This time, they are divided and they are confused about the Tarai agenda.

Unified Socialist Party: The party led by Madhav Nepal is a splinter party of the UML. This party will be nowhere without the support of the ruling alliance.

However, if the five-party alliance will become effective, the party may secure victory. Sooner or later, this party may merge with the Maoist Center.

Supreme leaders are secured:

Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba’s strong rival is NC’s dissident leader Karna Malla. Malla may attract the votes of the dissident NC cadres but may not be able to defeat Deuba. He was the personal secretary of Deuba earlier. Therefore, this time also, Deuba’s victory is almost confirmed in his home