Upcoming elections...

of Nepal Unified Marxist and Leninist (CPN-UML). The way the political parties have forged electoral alliances has already made it clear that either Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress or KP Sharma Oli of the CPN-UML will be the prime minister after the polls.

However, the alliance somewhat looks unnatural as the parties have deviated from their basic political ideologies as have given more importance to the victory in elections than their political ideologies. While Nepali Congress, the oldest democratic party, has forged alliance with radical communist parties like the CPNMaoist Centre and Rastriya Janamorcha, the UML, the biggest communist party, has forged alliance with conservative forces like the two Rastriya Prajatantra Parties. Moreover, Kamal Thapa of the Rastriya Prajatantra PartyNepal has given up all his political ideology of Hinduism and monarchy by becoming a UML candidate for the House of Representatives from Makwanpur. Thapa contesting the election as a UML candidate is the biggest surprise this time. No one had ever imagined that Kamal Thapa would become UML.

Oli also forged alliance with RPP to ensure his win in Jhapa-5. However, RPP led by Rajendra Lingden is sure to use his all might to defeat Thapa in Makwanpur although both of them have allied with the UML. RPP has forged alliance with the UML in three districts—Jhapa, Rupandehi and Banke, but in other districts, they are competing with each other.

Similarly, the alliance between UML and Janata Samajwadi PartyNepal led by Upendra Yadav looks unusual considering the enmity between Oli and Yadav until a few months ago. Yadav had quit the Oliled government and joined the NC-led alliance accusing Oli’s act of House dissolution as a regressive move.

But the Oli-Yadav alliance was challenged by Prabhu Shah, the former Maoist leader, who had joined the UML after the Supreme Court formally annulled the unification between the UML and Maoist Centre in 2021. Shah has filed independent candidates in all 17 constituencies of Madhes where the JSP-N candidates are contesting the election. The revolt by Shah could cause big damage to the JSP-N and the UML as well. Of 32 seats of Madhes, UML is contesting polls in only 15 seats. In 2017 polls, UML had won only two seats in Madhes despite forging alliance with the Maoist. Similarly, the NC is contesting polls only in 91 of the 165 seats of the House of Representatives under the first-past-thepost category. It has left other 74 seats to four of its alliance partners-namely the Maoist Centre, CPN (Unified Socialist), Rastriya Janamorcha and Loktantraik Samajwadi Party, which joined the alliance after Upendra Yadav-led JSPN deserted the ruling alliance.

Of the seats taken by the Maoist Centre, it abandoned two to Ghanashyam Bhusal, the rebel candidate in Rupandehi and Prabhu Shah in Rautahat. Janamorcha is contesting in two seats, CPN (Unified Socialist) in 20 and LSP in eight.

Likewise, UML gave three seats to RPP, one to RPP-N, and one each to Hridayesh Tripathi and NC rebel candidate Dinesh Koirala in Chitwan. UML has powerful rebel candidates in Kathmandu and Sunsari. Likewise, Puskar Ojha is another NC rebel candidate in Kaillai who can alter the election results.

When both the alliance may face rebellion and non-cooperation from party cadres, one cannot predict the election outcomes. However, as the Maoist Centre, the largest third party that has its presence across the nation is with the ruling alliance, NC can benefit although it has filed candidacy only in 91 seats. When the CPN (Unified Socialist) could also cause damage to UML candidates in many districts, the ruling alliance may benefit from it. Meanwhile, a few independent candidates can also influence the outcomes, especially in Kathmandu and Sunsari. As said above, the elections, in which parties have forged alliances abandoning their political ideology, will probably throw results in favour of the ruling parties, while it can end the political career of a few like Kamal Thapa in case he loses the elections.

However, there is still a fear whether the traditional voters of NC will cast votes for communists, especially the Maoist Centre because without receiving votes from NC supporters, most of the candidates of the Maoist Centre and the CPN (Unified Socialist) cannot win elections.