+ Brazil + Iran + Ukraine/ Russia + China +
Four Years of Madness Nearly Over
Brazil has taken a slight turn to the left as former two-time president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva [ known popularly as ‘Lula’ ] beat far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the run-off presidential election on Sunday.
After a very divisive campaign which saw the two bitter rivals on opposite sides of the political spectrum go head to head, Lula won 50.9 percent of the votes (BBC, Oct. 31).
It was a remarkable comeback for a politician who was barred in the last presidential election in 2018 because he was serving time in jail for corruption.
Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters – encouraged by their candidate’s allegations that “the establishment” and the media were against him and therefore underplaying his support – were fully confident of his victory. However, lawmakers close to Bolsonaro won a majority in the legislature, which means that Lula will face stiff opposition to his policies.
But Lula, who served two terms in office between January 2003 and December 2010 is a master craftsman in forging political alliances.
Key to Lula’s popularity during his first two terms in office was lifting millions of Brazilians out of poverty.
He also has global sympathy because he is open to international cooperation to protect the Amazon basin from further deforestation – a crucial agenda completely lacking in Bolsonaro’s administration.
Iranian Protests Escalate
Iranian security forces opened fire on protesters who had gathered by the thousands in north-western Kurdistan Province last week to mark forty days since the death of Mahsa Amini, who died following her detention by Iran’s morality police.
Demonstrations also occurred in Tehran and other cities across the country, with tens of thousands of anti-government protesters taking to the streets.
The Iranian government announced sanctions on European media companies covering the ongoing protests.
Meanwhile, the so-called, selfdeclared Islamic State claimed responsibility for a brutal attack that killed at least 15 people at a Shiite Muslim shrine in southern Iran. President Ebrahim Raisi callously said the demonstrations had “paved the way” for the attack.
Regime Change?
Yeganeh Rezaian of the Committee to Protect Journalists said: “One lesson [ from Iran’s 2009 protests ] is that demanding small changes in the system is not going to work. That’s why today’s protesters are demanding fundamental change.” Ray Takeyh from the Council on Foreign Relations wrote:
It is important to stress that prior to Amini’s death, Iran was rocked by various demonstrations throughout the summer, including one sparked by water shortages and teachers’ protests. The tragic death of Amini unified the many strands of dissent.”
“Economic grievances, lack of political opportunity, and massive corruption have cascaded into a protest movement that is convulsing the country and transcending class divisions.” Iran’s Protesters Have Already Achieved Much
Der Spiegel of Germany details the gutsy determination of Iran’s protesters and the threat of state violence they face.
It also outlines the achieved and potential effects of the current protest movement: “Already, the women have managed to deal a blow to one of the most brutal dictatorships in the world.”
They could be on the cusp of bringing down this nefarious gang of clerics – if only more international support was forthcoming.
Role of the Supreme Leader in the Islamic Republic
It is difficult to estimate the degree of threat to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s position [ who succeeded Khomeini ], but in recent years, there have been many street protests calling for his removal from power and the overthrow of the Islamic Republic, which is rotten to the core.
The ultra-nationalist, extreme Islamist regime has amply demonstrated that it is incapable of delivering on its economic promises, offering meaningful avenues for political expression, and providing a measure of cultural autonomy, so that it is steadily losing significant public support.
The Islamic State’s Institutions
The state President handles foreign policy and the country’s day-to-day affairs.
The Supreme Leader is empowered to command the armed forces, dismiss any elected official, countermand parliamentary legislation, and declare war and peace. The office of the Supreme Leader is, therefore, all-powerful and super-imposed on that of the state president. His dictatorial powers can be said to be institutionalized.
The position was the brainchild of the leader of the 1979 revolution [which toppled the imperial monarchy of Muhammad Reza Shah Pahlavi] Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
While in exile in Iraq in the 1970s, he articulated the theory of “Guardianship of the Jurist”, whereby a religious leader would oversee all national affairs – practically an extreme theocracy. Although Shiite Islamic Law did not endorse the notion of direct clerical rule, Khomeini insisted that an Islamic government needed clerical supervision to ensure that it confirmed to religious injunctions.
However, just as any secular institution, those of the Islamic Republic also demonstrated that they were capable of developing into utterly manipulative, corrupt ones.
The Assembly of Experts, which consists of 88 clerics, is ostensibly responsible for overseeing the office of the supreme leader.
The members of the assembly are elected, but that process is overseen by officials who make sure ultra-conservative clerics constitute the majority. Candidates for the assembly have to be approved by the Guardian
Council, a conservative body appointed by parliament, whereby the supreme leader also exercises influence over the election process.
Regime in Hot Water
The Economist of London examining the breadth and strength of the current movement [“Woman. Life. Freedom”] speculates whether the regime could fall [it is already hugely faltering].
“What is certain is that Khamenei and the Islamic regime are both in deeper trouble than at any time since the Shah was toppled in 1979. They are dithering, unsure whether to repress more brutally or give ground. The protests could yet fizzle out, as they have before. But this time there is at least a chance that they will persist. The beginning of the end of the Islamic regime must surely be in sight.” It does seem that the regime finds itself in a moment of acute existential crisis. Can it find a way to save itself?
Putin’s Violent World Order
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine is going badly for all involved, including himself. “Perhaps never in his years as president has Vladimir Putin found himself in such a tight spot,” Kiril Rogov wrote this month for the Wilson Center. Unfortunately the “special military operation” continues to slog on despite the struggles of Russia’s military.
“One thing seems clear,” Peter Clement writes in Foreign Affairs: “Putin has various ways of prolonging the war,” which “could go on for some time.”
Such extended barbaric destruction, for the purpose of annihilating a neighbouring country, has become relatively rare in recent world history.
The Economist of London writes that Putin “is dragging the world back to a bloodier time.”
Russians Have Voted With Their Feet
Diehard supporters of Putin and the Russian regime are seriously at a loss in explaining the brain drain and mass exodus of Russians. They are not buying Putin’s cock-and-bull story of the reasons for invading Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands of Russians are fleeing their country, as Putin’s so-called “partial mobilization” [which, in fact, was a full and indiscriminate mustering] has given men ample reason to evade military service. It is not a case of not fulfilling their patriotic duty; they just don’t want anything to do with, and sacrifice their lives for Putin’s dirty war. Meanwhile, these former Soviet republics have become existentially anxious about the unwanted Russian influx.
Many have headed to neighbouring Georgia and the Central Asian Republics.
Putin’s Days are Numbered
According to Boris Bondarev, a former senior Russian diplomat in Geneva [he left the diplomatic service in disgust over Putin’s ‘unholy’ war against Ukraine], Putin will be forced to leave office within months.
1. Putin’s nuclear threat is not a threat at all. He will desist from using a tactical nuclear device or even a ‘dirty bomb’ if the Western Powers warn him in no uncertain terms.
2. Bilateral negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are not conducive currently. Both have different priorities.
3. Putin’s domestic and external strength has been overestimated. Now his domestic support is being continuously eroded.
4. Ukraine is quite capable of defeating the Russian armies. The steady supply of Western arms and ammunition is essential for the ultimate Ukrainian victory – before the advent of spring! [ CNN/Fareed Zakaria’s ‘Global Public Square’, Oct. 30 ]
Xi Jinping Is Plunging China Into Maoist Chaos
Last Saturday, the world watched in shock one of the most extraordinary events in the modern history of China. According to China expert, Gordon G. Chang, [author: “The Coming Collapse of China”,] President Xi Jinping had his immediate predecessor, Hu Jintao, forcibly removed from the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. The ‘frogmarch’ was deliberately staged and timed to obtain maximum publicity.
The audacious move was “brutal and chilling”, according to Charles Burton of the Ottawa-based Macdonald-Laurier Institute. However, it was not, as many have claimed, a show of strength, but betrayed Xi’s sense of insecurity and sign of weakness. By Saturday, the last day of the Congress, it was clear that Xi had achieved complete dominance of the CCP. His possible adversaries, like Premier Li Keqiang, had not been elected to the Central Committee and were thus not eligible to remain in high office. Xi also knew on Saturday that during the following day at the First Plenum of the 20th Congress, he would secure a precedent-breaking third term as General Secretary of the CCP and his loyalists would take all of the remaining six seats on the Politburo Standing Committee, China’s highest decision-making body.
Xi’s control of the CCP was virtually complete. Yet he chose to humiliate Hu with the forcible removal – by one of his own bodyguards and after the international press had been ushered in to witness the cold-and hard-hearted event.
The question is why would Xi, a master of Chinese politics, engage in what looked like a completely unnecessary and gratuitous act? Gordon Chang is of the opinion that Xi was rightly concerned that Hu and what remained of Hu’s once powerful Communist Youth League faction in the CCP could become a rallying point for growing dissatisfaction with his failing policies.
Xi’s Iron Grip
According to the CNN’s and the Washington Post’s Fareed Zakaria, Xi Jinping exited the CCP’s 20th Party Congress with a historic third term in power and a Politburo Standing Committee stacked with diehard loyalists cementing his status as an epochal leader along the lines of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. Most Sinologists and Chinawatchers have warned that this development is not a good thing for China.
The Perils of ‘One Man/One Party’ Rule
A Nikkei Asia editorial states: “Managing the politics and economy of a large country is difficult without the right people and a sense of balance” – encapsulating criticism multiple China watchers and Sinologists have offered in recent weeks.