What is the future of the BRICS?

On August 22 the 15th annual summit of the BRICS —a group comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa— takes place in Sandton Convention Centre in Gauteng. For the first time one of the bloc’s leaders will be absent. As host, South Africa’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, felt he had a responsibility to welcome his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. But as a signatory to the Rome Statute, the treaty that established the International Criminal Court, his duty was to detain Mr Putin under the court’s arrest warrant and send him to the Hague, to stand trials for war crimes. Russia’s leader has said he will stay away. But Mr Ramaphosa’s dilemma is part of a wider struggle between BRICS members over how to make the group geopolitically relevant. What unites the BRICS, and how much does the group matter? Vladimir Putin’s absence at a forthcoming annual summit reflects a broader struggle between its members more openly confrontational and antiAmerican. All five think a multipolar world, less dominated by America, is desirable. In 2009 the leaders held their first summit. BRICS overtook the Group of Seven (G7), largest industrial countries in economic size when measured in purchasingpower parities. All this has piqued the interest of other countries. Together, the BRICS countries represent about 42 of the world’s population, 27 of global GDP, and about 20 of international trade. According to South Africa’s ambassador to the organization, dozens are applying or thinking about joining. Argentina, Bangladesh, Burundi, Cuba, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates, are among the fellow members of BRICS that have expressed an interest in joining BRICS.