•Myanmar: Military Rule is Faltering •india’s General Elections: low Turnout, apathy
Three years since a coup restored full military rule in Myanmar, armed rebels are on the offensive. The country’s civil war is often painted in terms of ethnic strife – yet the variegated opposition forces alone uphold the hope of an inclusive democracy (Jacobin/ a journal of democratic socialist thought based in New York, April 28).
The military had seized power and is holding the country in an iron grip.
It is backed by superpower China benefitting from a friendly junta, prioritizing stability and trade over human rights or democracy. Whereas the struggle for freedom and national self-determination seems at an impasse around the world, in Myanmar change is afoot. Here, rebels continue to fight the Tatmadaw, the country’s infamous military, whose claim to power is backed by China (and also neighbour India).
In October 2023, the rebels launched a major offensive, known as Operation 1027, which is now pushing military rule to its limits. So, what’s different about Myanmar?
The rebels have slowly been wearing down the military since the fighting started,” explains pro-democracy activist Michael Sladnick, who is currently in and around Myanmar.
[Sladnick started doing solidarity work, donated money to resistance groups and learned Burmese while talking to rebel groups online. Leaving the comforts of Chicago, he moved to the borderlands between Thailand and Myanmar in July 2023. He now works with people from different rebel factions united in the goal of removing the dictatorship.[“Jacobin”]. According to Sladnick, the military has suffered devastating losses. A patient, death-by-a- thousand-cuts strategy is stretching the military junta’s forces thin – and explains the resistance’s current success. “Today’s insurgency did not start in 2021 but is the culmination of a decades-long underground struggle for democracy.”
“The military’s losses are in the tens of thousands. Our estimates put the number of killed regime soldiers at fifty thousand, but the true number might be even higher.” “The junta is simply trying to control an area much too big for its capacity and is finding it hard to recruit new soldiers.”
“The Tatmadaw (or military) have lost several bases on the border to Thailand, where the Karen National Union (KNU) is gaining strength. Just a few weeks ago, Myawaddy, not far from here came under siege,” says Sladnick, who is currently staying in an undisclosed village near the Thai border.
The Military, the “Three Brothers” & the Revolution
Since February 2021, Myanmar has been ruled by General Min Aung Hliang, who has appointed himself prime minister.
Before the coup, he commanded the Tatmadaw junta, which has controlled Myanmar since the 1962 coup that followed independence from British colonial rule in 1948. In the 20th century, the Communists (dominated by the Bamar majority ethnic group) and ethnic armed organizations fought the military dictatorship , often at odds with one another.
Communist resistance held out against the Tatmadaw until 1989 before imploding.
In this sense, today’s insurgency did not start in 2021 but is the culmination of a decadeslong underground struggle for democracy.
A brief attempt at democratization saw a new government from 20162021 led by the liberal National League for Democracy. But the military never relinquished its hold on power. The democratic constitution of 2008 still reserved 25 percent of parliamentary seats for the Tatmadaw – enough to veto constitutional changes.
“The military never fully relinquished its hold on power.”(‘Jacobin’).
The military remained a state within a state, without any oversight by the civilian government, retaining extensive powers over the education sector and civil servants, and a monopoly over “national security” matters. This also provided the military with emergency powers to overthrow even the limited elected government, which it exercised on February 1, 2021.
As a display of the junta’s control over the judicial system, in December 2022, Myanmar’s former elected leader, Aung San Suu Kyi was sentenced to 27 years in prison on fabricated corruption charges. In mid-March 2021, the regime committed a massacre, slaughtering dozens of women shop floor leaders in Hlaingthaya, the factory district of the country’s largest city and commercial hub, Yangon.
“In the centre of the country, a new generation emerged that directly supports the People’s Defence Forces (PDF).”
Three of the largest organized resistance groups joined forces and formed the Three Brotherhood Alliance. They are composed of large more centralized rebel groups amongst a patchwork of local autonomous forces.
Their power is strongest in the eastern region of Shan State, where the junta must also contend with both rebel forces and powerful drug cartels.
Shan State is also home to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, two of the three ‘brothers’ fighting to topple the junta.
The third ‘brother’, the Arakan Army had launched an insurgency in Rakhine State back in 2019. In spite of past mistakes which still strain the relationship between the ‘Brothers’ and the National Unity Government’s forces in the PDF, they stand united against General Min Aung Hlaing and his junta.
Don’t Close the Door
From his base on the MyanmarThailand border, Sladnick recently went on a trip to Karenni State. Here, the junta has completely cut off the internet and phones, making Starlink the only window to the digital world. This also meant that his group got to see fighting in areas of the country previously unreported anywhere.
After being delayed for three days due to junta strikes, they were able to see the dictatorship’s decaying grip on the region.
Only four junta bases are still standing outside Loikaw, where Karenni resistance militias and ‘People’s Defence Forces (PDF) are currently advancing.
Despite the bumpy road ahead, Sladnick and the resistance fighters in Myanmar remain optimists. “Everyone I have talked to in Myanmar believe the regime will collapse. Millions of people have already given everything to the struggle for freedom and I’m confident we will win in the end. If we don’t get any help from the outside it will obviously take longer, but the regime’s days are numbered. It’s only a matter of time.”
India”s General Elections
A lower turnout so far in India’s long general election has rattled Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign managers, raising questions whether his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies can achieve the landslide victory predicted by opinion polls just one month ago (Reuters: Manoj Kumar & Aftab Ahmed, May 2).
The lack of momentum has been partly blamed on apathy on party workers believing a victory is assured and seems to have prompted Modi to change tack in his campaign speeches to try to fire up the Hindu majority, the party’s support base and get them out to voting stations, political analysts said.
The last major opinion poll had predicted that the BJP and its allies could win three-fourths of parliament’s 543 seats at stake on the back of Modi’s popularity, strong economic growth, handouts and the inauguration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya on a contested site in the vastly Hindu majority country.
Its slogan before this year’s election began was “Ab ki baar, 400 paar” (Hindi) or “This time, above 400”. More than half a dozen BJP leaders and political analysts that Reuters spoke to said a lack of momentum in the two initial phases of the seven-phase election have dampened hopes of a huge majority for the party, although they said it was still likely to retain power in the world’s most populous nation. What could be affected is the BJP’s aim to get a two-thirds majority in the lower chamber, or 362 seats, which would allow the party usher in far-reaching constitutional changes.
“The fall in poling turnout is mainly due to apathy among party workers and voters”, said Sanjay Sharma, one of the members of the BJP’s campaign committee in the northern state of Haryana.
Some candidates were being affected by an anti-incumbency wave, he said, adding the party was facing a “tough fight” in the state where it won all 10 parliamentary seats in 2019.
Modi himself has shifted in his campaign speeches from a focus on the administration’s successes in his 10-year tenure to targeting minority Muslims and the opposition Congress party.
“After the first phase, we saw a definite change of strategy by the PM…delivering Islamophobic kind of speeches, said Arati Jerath, a Delhi-based political commentator. “Obviously, he has now decided to polarize the campaign”
A total of 190 seats went to the polls on April 19 and 27 with approximate voter turnout at about 66 ? percent, the Election Commission has said. The number was only slightly lower than the last election in 2019, although there was a drop of 5-8 percentage points in voting in the BJP and allied-ruled states Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Rajasthan.
The BJP had been hoping for a high turnout, believing that would signal that its supporters had voted in force.
Polling ends on June 1 and votes will be counted on June 4.
The government bans the publication of exit polls until all voting is concluded.
Voting ‘Below Expectations’
Gopal Krishna Agarwal, BJP’s national spokesman, said the voting numbers were ‘below expectations’ but would not have much impact on the final results.
“Many voters have become lethargic as they are convinced about the victory of the party,” he said.
The BJP’s shift in tack may have backfired with some voters.
“We have lost interest because the BJP is seeking votes by communalizing the campaign, and not on its performance,” said Vikash Kumar, a voter in Rajnandgaon in the state of Chhattisgarh.
Kamal Abbas, a Muslim shopkeeper in the city of Lucknow, the capital of politically vital Uttar Pradesh state, reflected the sense of apathy. He said he would not waste time and money to travel to his hometown Prayagraj to vote as Modi’s party was set to win the election. “Minority votes do not stand anywhere in the majoritarian government…there is no point in wasting time,” he said.
Anirudh Singh, one of the district campaign managers of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, said the party would have reaped rich electoral dividends if the election was held during February-March, when fervor over the construction of the Ram Temple was at its peak.
“The party has failed to encash public support for Modi after the inauguration of the temple,” said Singh, noting that the religious feel-good mood had by and large been replaced by issues like jobs and inflation.
“So far there’s neither a communal wave, nor a Ram wave, nor a Modi wave in the election,” said Jerath, the political commentator, noting Modi would have to re-invigorate his party workers and supporters if he hoped for a sweep.
After being battered by Modi and the BJP in the last two general elections, opposition parties are hopeful of a better performance. The shift in the language and style of Modi’s campaign reflected a sense of nervousness, said Jairam Ramesh, a Congress party general secretary.
“The initial voting trends show there is no Modi wave. In states where we were wiped out in 2019, this time the trends are encouraging,” he said.
Gilles Verniers, a political analyst who teaches at Amherst College in Massachusetts, said the BJP appeared to have revised its expectations and was feeling a bit rattled at the moment.
“But it’s still a very long campaign. There’s still room for events and surprises that may alter the course of the election,” he said.
“The balance of probability continues to tilt in favour of the BJP, but not maybe as strongly as they would have hoped” (Reuters).