Climate demands we make changes
This is a time for serious humility. That’s my feeling about the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s newly published Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C.
The effects of climate change are already upon us. There is no escaping from this. But it is within our grasp to avoid far greater harms, to humbly retreat from the causes of this slow-motion catastrophe. By reminding us what’s at stake, the IPCC report should be a call to action, not despondency.
It is daunting, no doubt. Even if we stabilise global warming at 1.5C — which is politically difficult but technically feasible — the world is expected to lose between 70 per cent and 90 per cent of its coral reefs. If we stabilise at 2C, we lose more than 99 per cent.
Think about the flow-on effects for fish stocks, then for the people who rely on these for sustenance. Then consider that the Paris Agreement pledges, even if we
"Economic analysis can’t do justice to this harm."
fulfil them, commit us to 3C warming. Economic analysis can’t do justice to this harm.
It is easy to offload responsibility on to others. It is easy to think someone else will sort this out, that a technological fix is around the corner, that human ingenuity will reverse the problem. But that “someone else” is us. Technology and ingenuity will help us, but that depends on us too, on our ongoing choices about research and investment.
I don’t mean to dump all the responsibility on individuals, which we’ve heard a lot of in recent years. Change your light bulbs. Buy local. Get on your bike. But it is abundantly obvious this isn’t enough.
As voters, employees, consumers, shareholders, taxpayers, ratepayers and citizens, we need to encourage and compel our political and business leaders to make some tough choices.
In particular, we need to support our leaders when these choices involve intergenerational investment, when present people carry the cost for long-term benefits. Climate policy won’t always involve sacrifice — there are environmental-economic winwins out there — but it would be naive to think that we can avoid sacrifice entirely.
This isn’t to suggest that we should accept all climate policy without challenge. Like any kind of policy, climate policy can be poorly designed, or unjustly implemented. The idea of “just transitions” asks us to be vigilant about such consequences.
But we also need humility. We need to accept that we’re on the wrong track. It isn’t too late to make decisions that benefit future generations, or indeed our future selves. But we first need to recognise the influence we have, both for bad and for good.
David Hall is a senior researcher at the Policy Observatory, Auckland University of Technology, and cochair of the Independent Advisory Group for Auckland Council’s Climate Action Plan.