UK decision ominous for centre-right
TWO weeks ago I lunched with Gavin Scott, a very interesting old friend from my Hawke’s Bay childhood, almost universally known as “Gus”.
Born in Hull, Yorkshire, Gus migrated with his family to New Zealand in 1961. He attended Havelock North primary school and Karamu High School.
At the age of 17 he spent a year as a volunteer teacher in the jungles of Borneo, working with the children of head-hunters, afterwards he studied history and political science at Victoria University of Wellington and journalism at the Wellington Polytechnic. He returned to Britain across Asia in 1973, travelling through Sri Lanka, Kashmir, Afghanistan and Iran, and worked for Shelter, the British housing charity, before joining the Times Educational Supplement, from which base he also wrote features for the London Times.
After five years as a reporter and programme anchor for BBC Radio, Gus began in 1980 making films for BBC Television’s Newsnight, covering literary as well as political subjects: among his interviewees, J.B. Priestley, Christopher Isherwood, Iris Murdoch and John Fowles. He then made documentaries on science and culture before joining Channel Four News, for which he made films until 1990.
It was during this time that he started writing novels, including Hot Pursuit (about a Russian satellite that crashed in New Zealand) and A Flight of Lies (about the hunt for the bones of Peking Man). His novel Small Soldiers was a bestseller for Grosset and Dunlap, and he has recently written a Dickensian historical novel set in the nineteenth century, The Adventures of Toby Wey and The Age of Treachery for Titan Books.
I’ve recently read The Age of Treachery and highly recommend it to anyone who likes a densely textured whodunit — get it on Amazon.
Gus now lives in Los Angeles and makes a good living from writing novels and film scripts for Hollywood. .
He is a skilled and wise political observer and, particularly given the British EU exit vote last Friday, his political opinions were fascinating and incisive.
Donald Trump’s success in securing the Republican Party nomination for the upcoming United States presidential election Gus put down to a popular revolt by working class conservatives against their own party.
Years of nil wage increases while a tiny super rich elite got even wealthier, had become muddled up with a strong anti-immigration sentiment. This allowed Trump to advance seemingly mad policies, like a wall several thousand miles long between the USA and Mexico.
Trump has also captured the strong anti-politician feeling that also appears to have underpinned the British vote to leave the European Union.
The Brexit vote seems to have caught nearly every political observer off guard.
The British political landscape is currently in chaos with Prime Minister David Cameron announcing his resignation and a noisy rebellion by the opposition Labour Party MPs against Leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain in the European Union, so a second referendum on Scottish independence is likely and the possibility that Northern Ireland might leave the UK is not to be entirely discounted.
The vote to leave the European Union, again, seems like a revolt by people who feel left behind by unevenly distributed prosperity. The strongest anti-EU voting came from the poorest areas of England and Wales and again, a major issue in the referendum was immigration.
One of the four freedoms of the EU, of which the United Kingdom remains a member, is the right to the free movement of people, so the British economy which has been recovering relatively well from the Global Financial Crisis, has attracted large numbers of people from the poorer parts of the EU.
It was telling to hear Lord Jeffrey Archer say that although he would vote to remain in the EU, his scientist wife would vote to leave on the grounds that immigration was putting intolerable pressure Britain’s beloved National Health Service.
When and how this exit will take place is unknown and unprecedented. Presumably the Leadership of the Conservative Party and therefore the crucial matter of who is Prime Minister will have to be settled
before the exit trigger is activated.
Just a year ago there were four centre-right leaders in the old Commonwealth countries of Australia, The UK, Canada and New Zealand.
Tony Abbott, Stephen Harper, David Cameron and John Key all seemed ensconced for a long time.
All but John Key are gone or going. Tony Abbott was defeated in his own party caucus by Malcolm Turnbull. Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party was thrashed by Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and David Cameron fell on this sword after the Brexit fiasco. That’s politics, folks. Peacock one
day, feather duster the next.