Polls indicate likely status quo

Bill Shorten reckons Labor is ready to govern after today’s federal election. But polls suggest voters might not be ready yet to give him the chance.

The signs on election eve are that Labor will fall short of the 4.5 per swing and the net 19 seats it needs to form a majority government.

“I hope that we have done enough to earn the votes of the Australian people,” the opposition leader said yesterday as his campaign rolled through Labor and Liberal marginal seats in Sydney.

Three opinion polls yesterday underline the enormity of the task facing Labor.

The Fairfax-Ipsos poll was having a bet each way, depending on how preferences are distributed. Using the preference flow from the 2013 election it has the parties locked at 50:50, enough to get the coalition over the line.

But when respondents were asked specifically which party would receive their second preference on Saturday, Labor edged into the lead at 51-49 per cent — enough to give it a slim majority.

The Galaxy poll has the coalition ahead 51:49 per cent, a 2.5 per cent swing on 2013, and a result, if repeated at the ballot box, would limit coalition losses to a handful of seats.

The Essential poll has recorded a late surge to the government, giving the coalition a 50.5:49.5 per cent lead.

Labor believes one in 10 voters has yet to make up his or her mind and if election history going back to 2004 is any guide, that’s better news for the coalition.

Undecided voters generally break stronger for the coalition on polling day.

What appears to be a late surge to the coalition might account for a confident- sounding Malcolm Turnbull as he geed-up the party faithful in the Liberal marginal of Reid.

He spruiked his innovation agenda and hammered home the coalition’s key message of stability and economic leadership.

“I ask every Australian to treat their vote . . . as though they are the votes which determine the future of our government, that determine the future of our nation,” the prime minister said.

Later he and wife Lucy were mobbed by enthusiastic locals as he walked through Burwood.

Labor insiders believe the party has a big chance of grabbing up to 10 seats from the coalition.