Documents show Shell foresaw climate change

A Dutch journalist has uncovered Royal Dutch Shell documents as old as 1988 that showed the company understood the gravity of climate change, the company’s large contribution to it and how hard it would be to stop it.

The oil giant commissioned a 1988 report titled The Greenhouse Effect that calculated that the Shell group alone was contributing 4 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions through its oil, natural gas and coal products. And the report warned that “by the time global warming becomes detect- able it could be too late to take effective countermeasures to reduce the effects or even to stabilise the situation”.

The report was written by members of Shell’s Greenhouse Effect Working Group and was based on a 1986 study, though the document reveals that Shell had commissioned “greenhouse effect” reports as early as 1981.

The documents were found by Jelmer Mommers, a reporter with De Correspondent. They were posted on the Climate Files web site, which is sponsored by the Climate Investigations Center, an environmental activist group.

Shell’s working group knew three decades ago that the change was real and formidable, warning that it would affect living standards and food supplies and have social, economic and political consequences.

The documents contrast with Shell’s former public stance on climate change, at least for a period of time in the 1990s. Yesterday, Shell issued a statement about the newly released report.

“The Shell Group’s position on climate change has been a matter of public record for decades. We strongly support the Paris Agreement and the need for society to transition to a lower carbon future, while also extending the economic and social benefits of energy to everyone,” the company said.

“Successfully navigating this dual challenge requires sound government policy and cultural change to drive low-carbon choices for businesses and consumers. It requires cooperation between all segments of society.”