May gambles on go-slow Brexit
The UK and the European Union are inching towards a plan that could help unblock Brexit negotiations and clear the path to a deal, raising hopes of progress after months of stalemate.
While the EU summit in Brussels fell far short of the breakthrough it was long touted to be, a glimmer of hope emerged from the gloom that has descended on the process in recent weeks.
The idea that’s breathing new life into the negotiations is an old one: take more time to do the deal.
Both sides now think there’s merit in keeping the UK inside the EU’s full membership rules for longer after it formally leaves, with an option to extend the 21-month transition period that’s due to end in December 2020.
That would give negotiators more time to resolve the biggest obstacle: how to avoid customs checks at the border between the UK and Ireland.
When the leaders gathered in the Belgian capital on Thursday, they were determined to avoid another diplomatic catastrophe like Salzburg. May’s 15-minute address to her fellow leaders be- fore dinner didn’t impress, and left some of them confused and frustrated. But she showed a willingness to move her position, and the EU has too, according to officials on both sides. May signalled that she was open to extending the transition period to help solve the problem of the Irish border. In return, the EU has agreed to engage with May’s proposal for a so-called backstop guarantee to avoid customs checks on the UK-Ireland border — which would involve keeping the whole UK inside the EU’s customs regime.
According to an EU official, the bloc decided that time is running out and they can’t afford any more breakdowns. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the leaders pledged to do “everything to find a solution”.
May said her proposal was an attempt to solve the issue of the Irish border, which has stumped negotiators for more than a year.
“What has now emerged is the idea that an option to extend the implementation period could be a further solution to this issue of the backstop in Northern Ireland,” May said. “We are not standing here proposing an extension to the implementation period. What we are doing is working to ensure we have a solution to the backstop issue in Northern Ireland, which is currently a blockage to completing the deal.”
There were other signs of progress, too. If the summit had gone badly, EU officials were weighing up the idea of calling a special summit in November to prepare themselves for a chaotic divorce without a Brexit deal. To the relief of May’s team, that didn’t happen.
Despite the progress, May still faces major hurdles in London, where she will eventually need any deal she strikes with the EU to be ratified by the UK Parliament.
Veteran Brexit campaigner John Redwood, who’s a member of May’s Conservative Party, said extending the transition period would be “completely nuts”. He added: “She won’t get it through. We’re against it. It’s not Brexit.”