Time to see if Trump card is trumpable
After watershed political moments in Brazil and Germany, an even more momentous one is in store this week. The US Midterm elections could instantly change the course of the presidency or consolidate it. New data and clues to the 2020 presidential election will emerge.
In contrast, Jair Bolsonaro’s arrival to Brazil’s presidency and German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s long farewell felt like steps into the unknown. Bolsonaro, called the Trump of the tropics, represents a shift to the right for Brazil after more than a decade of leftist rule. And Merkel, the glue at the heart of EU politics for 13 years, will move on just as major social democratic parties are under pressure from the fringes.
Brazil has voted for change and an unorthodox change agent, after dozens of politicians were caught in the Operation Car Wash graft scandal. That has given the far-right ex-army captain this opening to try out his prescriptions on corruption, the economy and crime.
Brazil is the protector of the Amazon rainforest for the world. The Washington Post writes that Bolsonaro wants a “pro-business approach” to exploiting natural resources. That injects uncertainty at a time of unsettling scientific reports on climate and wildlife.
Bolsonaro is the latest far-right leader to rise by using populist tools: harnessing social media; sparking outrage with bombastic lines; offering simple solutions; presenting himself as an outsider.
US President Donald Trump is the most important figure in this nationalist wave, and opponents still struggle with how to respond to his attacks while promoting their own agenda. This is a crucial issue for Democrats. They don’t want to be constantly reacting, fighting on Trump’s turf.
More generally, how do politicians in traditional parties around the globe get the better of the current wave of bold, attention-grabbing, far-right populists?
Merkel chided Trump at times with diplomatic language. Does that really work now when an “authentic” voice is prized in a leader and people are used to plain talk?
In the Midterm campaign, Democratic governor candidate for Florida, Andrew Gillum, has caught the eye with a fresh, unapologetic and blunt approach to explaining positions and landing blows.
The parties are road-testing 2020 issues and strategies. The Democrats have focused on healthcare, the Republicans on immigration.
A Democrat win in the House of Representatives would put Trump under scrutiny for the rest of his term and undercut his image as a successful campaigner and strategist. But what if Republicans’ hammering of immigration results in hanging on to both houses of Congress? Trump would be sure of his laser focus on his own supporters.
Could his immigration rhetoric turn off enough independents and moderate Republicans? Or will they rate the economy as their key issue, trumping any concerns about Trump? This week we will finally get some answers.