May’s chance of winning vote ‘zero’

Securing the unanimous approval of 27 European heads of state for a Brexit deal was the easy part. Yesterday, British Prime Minister Theresa May turned to a far greater challenge — winning support from sceptical British MPs and their constituents.

A Parliamentary vote on the deal is scheduled for December, with the hope that Britain can leave the EU in a “smooth and orderly way” in March. But May needs 318 votes for the deal to pass. By many estimates, she’s more than 60 votes short.

“The chances are currently around zero, to put it bluntly,” said Jonathan Tonge, a politics professor at the University of Liverpool.

And even if the resistance within May’s own party melts away, she would need support from some opposition MPs. The Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist Party, which props up May’s minority government, is against the deal.

May is planning to make her case in an election-style campaign through England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales over the next two weeks. She previewed her stump speech in Parliament yesterday.

She said the Brexit withdrawal deal, painstakingly negotiated over more than 17 months, was a good deal and, crucially, it was the only one on the table.

“We can back this deal, deliver on the vote of the referendum, and move on to building a brighter future of opportunity and prosperity.”

Or, she said, MPs can reject the deal and “go back to square one,” exposing Britain “to more division and more uncertainty, with all the risks that will entail.” Scores of MPs stood to denounce the plan.

Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the opposition Labour Party, told Parliament that the “botched” Brexit deal was “the worst of all worlds — no say over future rules and no certainty for the future”. He cited one estimate that the British economy would shrink by 3.9 per cent with this deal in place.

“Ploughing on is not stoic. It’s an act of national self-harm.”

Boris Johnson, a leading Brexiteer who resigned as May’s Foreign Secretary in July, said that to call May’s plan “unsatisfactory” would be an understatement.

“It’s very hard to see how this deal can provide certainty to business or to anyone else.”