Guineas favourite the right stuff
Baker’s compelling arguement for Cutadeel success
Champion trainer Murray Baker isn’t prone to emotion when discussing his horses. So when he suggests Avondale Guineas favourite Cutadeel reminds him of his sire, the former Baker-trained superstar Dundeel, it makes a pretty compelling argument that he could be New Zealand’s best staying 3-year-old. The 3-year-old crop was turned upside down last week when the leader of the pack Madison County was the centre of a sale negotiation, one which may not be totally finalised yet but has ruled him out of racing here in the immediate future. Baker and training partner Andrew Forsman trained Madison County and the blow of losing him is very much tempered by the fact they have Cutadeel as well The Chosen One and Bobby Dee in tomorrow’s $100,000 Schweppes Avondale Guineas at Ellerslie. At this time of the year when some of the brilliant milers are starting to be exposed by the step up to middle distance, Baker has no concerns about that. Not only did Cutadeel win over 2100m in December but Baker likes what he sees on both sides of the gelding’s breeding. “Obviously we trained Dundeel and he was a very fast horse but still good enough to win a Derby,” says Baker. “He seems to be leaving that in plenty of his stock and we saw that with the big 2-year-old winner (Castelvecchio) in Sydney last week. “And this horse has a bit of Dundeel about him. He has real speed and a touch of class.” But Baker digs even further to boost punter confidence ahead of tomorrow’s Guineas and the $1 million Vodafone Derby at Ellerslie in two weeks. “He (Cutadeel) is out of a Dylan Thomas mare and he was a real stayer, he won the Arc. So I don’t think this week or the Derby distance will bother him. “He won well last start and and I think The Chosen One will be better this week too because he raced a bit fresh in the Waikato Guineas last week. “So we have three chances but it is a good, even field. The one thing we have learned in the last few years is this race is the most important leadup to the Derby.” Cutadeel is not only favourite tomorrow but also for the Derby and looks to have the X-factor some of the more dour stayers in the classic crop don’t. After his impressive win at Pukekohe last start and perfect draw tomorrow he looks the horse on the up while some rivals are coming through busier summer campaigns. The obvious danger is Surely Sacred, who didn’t have a lot of luck when fifth in the Karaka Classic last start and races like the step up to 2100m will suit him as he has tends to get back over the mile. There are plenty of other high class three-year-olds in the race that has tended to be moving day in the Derby markets: very few Derby winners don’t hit the line hard in the Guineas first. Hitting the line hard has been the problem for another Baker-Forsman trained stayer of late in Mongolian Marshal, who contests tomorrow’s $100,000 Coca-Cola Avondale Cup. The way he won the Waikato Cup three starts over 2400m that distance range looked to hold no fears for him but he has seemed to peak on his run after having beautiful sits close to the speed in both the City of Auckland and Karaka Stayers Cups in his last two starts. It seems ridiculous to say the Waikato Cup winner can’t stay 2400m but another conviction tomorrow would suggest Mongolian Marshal is struggling with the classic distance right now. But with plenty of lightly-weighted snipers ready to chase him down as well as his last-start conqueror Five To Midnight, Mongolian Marshal won’t be starting anywhere as short as he did in his last two starts.