Pandemic gets tougher to track as global Covid testing plunges

Testing for Covid-19 has plummeted across the globe, making it much tougher for scientists to track the course of the pandemic and spot new, worrying viral mutants as they emerge and spread.

Experts say testing has dropped by 70 to 90 per cent worldwide from the first to the second quarter of this year — the opposite of what they say should be happening with new Omicron variants on the rise.

“We’re not testing anywhere near where we might need to,” said Dr

Krishna Udayakumar, who directs the Duke Global Health Innovation Centre at Duke University.

“We need the ability to ramp up testing as we’re seeing the emergence of new waves or surges to track what’s happening” and respond.

Reported daily cases in the United States, for example, are averaging 73,633, up more than 40 per cent over the past two weeks, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. But that is a vast undercount because of the testing downturn and the fact tests are being taken at home and not reported.

An influential modelling group at the University of Washington in Seattle estimates only 13 per cent of cases are being reported to health authorities in the US — which would mean more than half a million new infections every day.

The drop in testing is global but the overall rates are especially inadequate in the developing world, Udayakumar said. The number of tests per 1000 people in high-income countries is about 96 times higher than in low-income countries, according to Find, a public health nonprofit.

What’s driving the drop? Experts point to Covid fatigue, a lull in cases after the first Omicron wave and a sense among some residents of lowincome countries that there’s no reason to test because they lack access to antiviral medications.

At a recent press briefing by the World Health Organisation, Find CEO Dr Bill Rodriguez called testing “the first casualty of a global decision to let down our guard” and said “we’re becoming blind to what is happening with the virus”.

Testing, genomic sequencing and delving into case spikes helps uncover new variants. New York state health officials found the super contagious BA.2.12.1 variant after investigating higher-than-average case rates in the central part of the state.

As testing rates fall, “we’re just not going to see the new variants emerge the way we saw previous variants emerge”, Rodriquez said.