PM’s talks with the US are crucial
The Prime Minister’s coronavirus infection has struck at an unfortunate time as Budget day looms, but it would have been worse had it occurred a few days later.
Having to isolate during the big economic set-piece on Thursday would be one thing, but having to miss a trip to the US would be on another level.
Jacinda Ardern may still be able to make a speech about the Budget remotely by video and her isolation period should end this weekend in time for the trade-focused US visit to go ahead.
New Zealand has recently preferred to lurk on the wing rather than join the maul of engagement with its traditional ally the US, but geopolitical tensions, the pandemic, war in Ukraine and global economic problems have drawn us closer in.
The US is heavily involved in international support for Ukraine against Russia, a conflict which continues to create shockwaves in different ways with Sweden joining Finland in throwing in their futures with Nato.
Closer to home, Covid has now landed in the Hermit Kingdom of North Korea, which has been busy testing weapons as South Korea’s leadership changes. China’s stringent approach to Omicron threatens to have a wide economic impact. It’s security pact with the Solomons has been an issue in Australia’s election. Sri Lanka is in political and economic turmoil. A Marcos is back in power in the Philippines.
The US has boosted its security role with the Aukus pact, and the Quad forum with Australia, India, and Japan. We and other regional neighbours are keen to draw the US further in economically via the CPTPP free trade agreement.
With Russia a pariah, and China at odds with countries in the region and viewed by the US as its strategic competitor, Washington is the major but flawed option in supporting international customs, rules and stability. It remains the biggest all-round political, economic, security and cultural player in the world.
Though America’s military power is unrivalled, there’s a lot of unpredictability about its politics and where it is headed. Its economic outlook is worrying markets, and voters, as it heads into Midterm elections where the Republican Party is favoured.
Biden has struggled to get key promises through a divided Senate. A Republican comeback in Congress and with governorships could leave him more obviously hand-tied on domestic policy.
The revelation about Supreme Court discussions on abortion highlighted a general trend in US politics. A minority is increasingly finding ways to push its interests to the forefront.
Despite questions over the state of US democracy, New Zealand has to work with what’s there and America’s international leadership under Biden is at its most conventional and predictable now.