Will Kherson fightback count as a success or provocation?
The dice are rolling, the curtain has been whipped back. Ukraine’s counter offensive has begun.
There had been speculation that telegraphing its intent to attack was a risky strategy by Kyiv. What the weeks of messaging did do, of course, was to unseat the Russian Army.
Attacks in the Donbas, already reduced to a fraction of their early murderous work thanks to longrange precision weapons supplied by the West, fell to a trickle as Moscow was forced to move forces south to meet the impending threat.
That was clever. So too was hitting the few bridges linking Russia’s main force in the area with the few thousand troops it had pushed north and west of the Dnipro River. The Russian forces in the Kherson region are now caught in a pocket as a
Ukrainian force of comparatively decent strength falls upon them.
This will come as a surprise to many, not least the Russians, who are thought to have started this reckless venture with about 160,000 troops. With their dead and wounded, they are now thought to have around half that figure across the whole country.
The former head of Britain’s secret intelligence service, MI6, has welcomed Ukraine’s counterattacks in Kherson, saying it is a key moment in the war.
Sir Alex Younger told the BBC the fightback from Kyiv showed the two opposing forces had “reached some kind of balance, which is an unexpected and frankly welcome situation”.
Moreover, the Russians have limited means to call on. The recent habit of Russian ammunition dumps spontaneously erupting in the night will have been designed to limit Moscow’s means to fight.
There are no guarantees of Ukrainian success, though. Warfare is always part art, part science, a large slice luck. But, looking wider, there are two things to consider.
First, if the countryside is taken, but Kherson city remains in Russian hands, is that a victory or defeat for
Kyiv? Failing to gain the city would be spun by Moscow as a major blunder by Ukraine, but if they are still advancing in other areas and cutting off any chance of a Russian push west to Odesa, Kyiv will surely accept that.
Western allies, some of whom have been eager to see proof Ukraine can turn large deliveries of aid into progress on the battlefield, would likely accept a “grinding” offensive that weakens Putin. There are reports Sergei Shoigu, Moscow’s Defence Minister, has already been sidelined and senior military generals, we are told, have been sacked on a regular basis. If so, Russia’s command is in crisis, just as the war is heating up and Europe is cooling down. A counter attack in the south deemed “successful” would therefore deal Putin a significant body blow.
How will he react? Will he be so stupid and reckless as to risk the use of a tactical nuclear weapon?
Will he engineer an accident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, designed to render swathes of Ukraine and possibly eastern Europe unsuitable for agricultural use for years to come? It’s highly unlikely but wouldn’t be the first reckless decision he has taken.