FOOD FOR THOUGHT
We take for granted the bounty on offer at our supermarkets, but destructive cyclones and the hottest month in 150 years are turning attention to how long New Zealand can provide fresh food for its growing population. Tess Nichol investigates.
On the outskirts of Dargaville, Andre de Bruin has been growing kumara for the past two decades. He produces 40ha of the purple tuber annually, but last year his yield was halved, thanks to what de Bruin calls a “perfect storm” — drought followed by unseasonal amounts of rain right before harvest.
“We had drought, drought, drought, then bam, floods,” he recalls.
“We finished by getting 250mm of rain, 90mm of that landed in less than an hour and that just created a flash flood.
“A third of my crop was completely under water.”
Like any farmer, de Bruin prepares for drought, he puts measures in place to protect his crops from heavy rain. But our climate is changing. Niwa scientist Dr Sam Dean says temperatures will increase, bringing more frequent drought, particularly to the north and east of the North Island.
Most of the past 10 summer have seen above average temperatures, Dean says, and this January was New Zealand’s hottest month in the past 150 years.
A warmer climate also means droughts will be drier and longer.
The number of ex-tropical cyclones passing over New Zealand won’t necessarily increase, but they will be stronger and more damaging.
“The likelihood of flooding goes up, the likelihood of wind damage goes up. When these storms do happen they will be more intense.”
In the face of such a future, how do we make sure Kiwi farmers can keep growing enough food to feed the country, let alone produce enough crops to meet export demands?
seems we are going to experience more extremes of climate and more storms, more cold periods.”
Distinguished Massey professor and Fellow Laureate Paul Moughan backs the move toward forming a formal food security policy.
“With a rapidly growing world population and shrinking resources, food and water supply are going to become major global issues, and by definition an issue for New Zealand.”
We haven’t yet managed to get sustainable food production right, but it’s essential we figure out how to feed the country without eroding New Zealand’s soil, polluting waterways and increasing our greenhouse gas emissions.
“There are no simple quick fixes, and often to produce optimal sustainable production systems will involve trade-offs not only nationally but also between countries globally.
“One thing for sure is that there will need to be a greater level of understanding in the general population as to what constitutes a healthy diet and lifestyle.”
The Government says the issue is on its radar. Increasing food production while reducing emissions is a global challenge requiring research and innovation, Minister of Agriculture Damien O’Connor says.
“The Government has recently passed the 100-day mark and during that time I’ve met with many industry groups and my door is always open for a robust discussion.
“I especially welcome industry solutions around developing a pathway to deliver higher value primary production in a sustainable way across New Zealand agribusiness.”
Climate Change Minister James Shaw says “significant work” is going into understanding the impacts of extreme weather events on food production and quality water supply.
“Water storage will be part of a wider work programme across government portfolios and in conjunction with public consultation.
“The proposed climate change adaptation risk assessment will allow us to better understand threats to food supply alongside other hazards and issues relating to climate change, and that understanding will help formulate action plans.”
Shaw says specific work relating to a domestic food security policy isn’t under way in his portfolio, but domestic food security is an issue to be incorporated in climate change policy.
The situation New Zealand finds itself in is a serious one, but it is not without silver linings.
New Zealand sits 41 degrees south of the equator, a latitude that lends itself to cool climates, giving us more wiggle room when it comes to warming.
Victoria University Wellington climate change lecturer Kelli Archie says two of climate change’s biggest impacts — rising temperatures and increased carbon in the atmosphere — could increase some crop yields.
“New Zealand is, at least compared to the rest of the world, actually in a pretty good position,” she says.
Countries and continents already struggling with food insecurity, such as Africa, Southeast Asia and parts of South America, will face dwindling yields on their domestic harvests.
This means Kiwi farmers could actually find themselves in a stronger position in the international market, Archie says.
However the higher prices fetched overseas would see similar price spikes here, meaning the average New Zealander would be no better off.
And, after a certain point, temperature rises and carbon build-up will start to decrease crop yields here, too.
Archie says it’s almost impossible to put time frames on this, but, as an example, kiwifruit orchards may need to start moving steadily south by about 2070.
Archie echoes Dean’s predictions at Niwa, saying the East Coast will become drier and drought-stricken regions will be hit with greater intensity.
New Zealand is a wet country, but the wettest areas aren’t good for growing so the question was how to get water to where it was needed.
“We know droughts are going to happen and we should be doing a better job of planning for water shortages ahead of time,” Archie says.
Investment in aquifers is needed, and the Government has to act quickly to future-proof food production and reduce emissions.
“The time to start was yesterday, and we haven’t.”
Kumara is an example of a crop that will benefit from a warmer climate — but with de Bruin’s crops planted on a river flat, rising sea levels threaten the farm’s future long term.
Like Archie and Chapman, de Bruin emphasises the need for water storage, and a “grown up” conversation about irrigation.
People, usually those living in urban areas, often lump pollution and irrigation together, but that’s not fair, de Bruin says.
“Towns need water, people need water, animals need water and horticulture crops need water.
“It’s about good stewardship of water and the land. I support well-thought-through irrigation schemes.”
Farmers can adapt, as they always have, but without Government support there’s only so much they can do he says.
He supports Horticulture NZ’s push for a food security policy.
“People from rich countries who haven’t gone hungry don’t tend to see the importance of food security. If you have ever starved, you know.”
“People from rich countries who haven’t gone hungry don’t tend to see the importance of food security. If you have ever starved, you know.”
Andre de Bruin