Food for thought

Amodern supermarket is an embarrassment of riches. Seasonal or not, you don’t think twice about popping a tray of juicy red tomatoes in your trolley, from shelves that never seem to go bare. Until they do.

Last April two cyclones smashed their way through New Zealand, drenching growing areas in the North Island at a crucial time in the season and destroying swathes of crops. Seedlings that weren’t washed away entirely by ex-tropical cyclones Cook and Debbie struggled to grow in the swampy mud, choking supply and driving up prices. For weeks, leafy greens were scarcely seen on shelves, replaced with apologies written on A4, promising salads could soon be served again.

Spinach was off the menu entirely and in May iceberg lettuce, that cheap sandwich filler, was spied in one Auckland supermarket for a heart-stopping $7 a head. And lettuce wasn’t the only vegetable reaching outrageous prices. Fresh produce became so expensive a group of doctors co-signed a letter in November’s New Zealand Medical Journal saying low income families couldn’t afford them.

Last December, pumpkin, a pantry staple, was the most expensive it had ever been, reaching an average of $5.78/kg according to Statistics New Zealand: 231 per cent more expensive than at the same time in 2016. Kumara shot over the $8/kg mark in May and kept climbing, hitting a high of $8.99/kg in November, nearly double the price of the year before. Price jumps earlier this year saw greens like broccoli as much as quadruple, thanks to “unprecedented” humidity in the growing season, and cauliflower prices jumped to as much as $10 a head in early March. The economic principle of supply and demand is reflected in these prices. Put simply, not enough crops were growing to meet our demand for fresh produce.

Alarm bells over the extinction of the ubiquitous Cavendish banana, whose monocultural strain puts it at risk of disease, have been ringing for several years.

Although rumours of its death have so far been greatly exaggerated, they have been joined by warning cries the days of flat whites and Whittaker's are coming to an end.

Clickbait headlines are perhaps overstating the issue, but combined with a growing population it’s entirely probable climate change could cause major deficits relative to global demand as soon as 2050.

In 2014 Oxfam warned the impact of climate change was already threatening food production in its report Hot and Hungry. It said global warming could set back the global fight against hunger by decades, with our international food production system ill-equipped to cope with change. There could be 25 million more malnourished children under 5 in 2050, compared with a world without climate change, the report says.

Domestically, kiwifruit are climate sensitive, like coffee and chocolate. Most kiwifruit are grown in the Bay of Plenty, but by 2050 farmers may need to move further south as the area becomes too warm to produce a decent yield.

But if crops have nowhere to move, then one option for adaptability has been lost. As food becomes scarce, demand pushes prices higher.

Those hit first and hardest are Kiwis on benefits or working low-wage jobs.

Massey University PhD candidate Rebecca Graham says whatever effect climate change has, it will make an existing problem even worse.

A Herald investigation in September last year found malnutrition meant about 120 children a year were in hospital because of nutritional deficiencies and anaemia, compared to 10 years ago when the average was 60.

There’s no buffer to protect low-income families from unpredictable price spikes of fresh produce staples, says Graham, who researches food insecurity.

If fresh food is too expensive, people replace it with cheap but unhealthy food, like instant noodles and $1 white bread.

Without intervention, the situation is only going to get worse, as fresh food is more frequently priced out of reach. “It feels like there’s this massive problem in New Zealand with people not having enough to eat, and it’s not their fault,” Graham says.

Horticulture New Zealand believes the issue is so pressing, it is lobbying the Government to adopt a domestic food security policy.

We import very little of our fresh produce and most of what is grown in New Zealand is consumed here.

Horticulture NZ has identified 10 staple vegetables in New Zealand including carrots, onions, potatoes and kumara, and found just 0.1 per cent were imported. In a report compiled late last year, the industry body warns the longheld assumption that we are a land of plenty may not be true for much longer.

With houses already encroaching on fertile soil, we urgently need to fence off what’s left for food production, says CEO Mike Chapman.

About 5.5 per cent of land is suitable for crops; about 1 per cent is currently being used.

If we can secure what’s left of that remaining 4.5 per cent, Chapman reckons New Zealand has a much better chance of staving off the growth-stunting effects of climate change.

This is partly because diversity will be key in our battle against the weather.

About 97 per cent of the country’s kumara is grown in Northland, so supply is reliant on good weather in one specific part of the country.

“But if that vegetable is grown in many locations across New Zealand the chance of us being able to sustain bad growing conditions in one region but still supply the country is greatly increased,” Chapman says.

“Flood, cold wet weather, drought — you can sustain everything.”

We need to get serious about water storage and irrigation and plan for the future before it’s too late, Chapman says.

Conversations about irrigation and how we use our water can be tense, but he believes the issue is misunderstood.

New Zealand gets a lot of rain, but not necessarily where it is needed for growing and not always at the right time.

Consents to build dams and water reservoirs will be essential to catch excess rainwater in a downpour and save it for when it’s needed.

Channels to move water around are necessary, too.

“Water storage will have to be a way for the future for New Zealand to survive, because we are going to experience drier weather, and it

There could be 25 million more malnourished children under 5 in 2050, compared with a world without climate change.

Oxfam report