Pandemic’s deadly week

More than 100 Covid-related deaths as Cabinet set to consider traffic light settings

New Zealand has experienced its deadliest week of the pandemic with more than 100 Kiwis dying. But a top epidemiologist is backing the possibility of a change in Auckland’s Covid settings.

Cabinet will meet tomorrow to consider whether to move the country — or select regions, such as Auckland — from the red traffic light setting to orange, a change that would mean no limits on how many people could gather indoors.

Yesterday, 23 Kiwis with Covid died. Since Monday, 104 have died.

Although deaths were rising, Covid case numbers and the pressure on the health system has been easing.

The Ministry of Health yesterday reported 11,560 new community cases, well down on earlier daily figures that soared above 20,000.

There were 678 people with Covid in hospital yesterday, down from a peak of 1016 on March 22.

Numbers were falling fastest in Auckland, with the city now about four weeks past its Omicron outbreak peak, epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker said.

In fact, Auckland case numbers could have already fallen close to what might be a baseline number of daily infections going forward of about 2000 cases a day, he said.

“That means there is an important discussion to have about what set of controls are we moving towards for the rest of the outbreak.”

However, Baker questioned whether the orange light setting was the right choice.

Under red, indoor events were restricted to 200 people, with everyone seated and separated, and wearing masks unless eating or drinking.

At orange, there were no limits on indoor gatherings and no requirements to be seated or separated.

Vaccine passes would also no longer be needed, meaning the vaccinated and the unvaccinated were freer to mix.

Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said the main thing the Government was looking for when deciding to move regions to orange was an indication of where the country was “in terms of the overall peak”.

Covid-19 modeller Professor Michael Plank said that as of last Friday, only about 367 of Auckland’s 2700-odd hospital beds were taken by Covid patients.

“If the trends we’re seeing continue in Auckland, I think a move to orange would be reasonable.”

However, it could lead to an increase in cases again.

“If you’re indoors, the ventilation is poor, unmasked people are drinking, and there’s unlimited numbers, there’s potential for an uptick in infections across Auckland.”

In Auckland 352,752 people eligible for a booster vaccine haven’t had it with three doses being more effective against serious illness from Omicron than two. Nearly a quarter of children aged 5-11 — 40,000 out of 168,000 — were yet to have any vaccine dose.

However, the city has also had Omicron sweep through, with up to a third of Aucklanders catching it — and thereby having a low chance of catching it again within three months.

This was the main reason Plank believed a move to orange in Auckland could be justified.

But Baker was more cautious. “Where are those roughly 2000 daily cases in Auckland coming from, where are people getting infected and what can we do to reduce the number is potentially a more important question than moving from red to orange.”