New leader on a suicide mission?

Now the dust has settled after the leadership contest, National and its new leader are coming to grips with the scale of the task ahead.

Already, former colleagues (eg Peter Dunne) have been reminding the public that New Zealand has not always jettisoned party leaders (Norman Kirk, Jim Bolger and Helen Clark) who got defeated in their first election campaign. With friends like Dunne, Bridges has no need of enemies.

Hopefully, everyMP in the National caucus will have learned a few valuable vocational skills about the politics of compromise and horse trading – if only because the lack of coalitionbuilding skills is precisely why National is not in government today. Unfortunately, and true to National tradition, Bridges led from the front throughout the leadership contest.

One concession to caucus unity is that Paula Bennett – who has strong links to Amy Adams, the other main contender – has stayed on as deputy. Reportedly, no other caucus heavyweight wanted the job, under Bridges. Gender balance on the ticket was essential, and both Adams and Nikki Kaye had declared their disinterest in the deputy position. Clearly, Bridges will be wearing any failure in 2020 on his head alone.

Judging by past performance, Bennett will be little help to Bridges in the competition with Jacinda Ardern. National will be needing to prevent any defection of its female supporters to an Ardern administration that has already begun to engage with social problems – in housing, health and education – that National neglected while in government. Bridges and his blokey persona may do little to prevent that erosion from picking up pace, among women voters.

At a wider strategic level, the caucus has chosen in effect, to replicate the 2002 situation by picking a new and youngish leader and sending him off on a virtual suicide mission – namely, to win back the Treasury benches only three years after a long period in office. Bill English was the sacrificial victim in 2002, and he found it difficult to resurrect any kind of political career.

The other precedent was the 2005 election – whereby National selected a divisive older figure (Don Brash then, Judith Collins now) who could inflict enough damage on the government to make victory at the 2023 election much easier for their successor. In its wisdom, the National caucus chose not to go down that path. As a consequence, it could have set National up for the same sort of leadership churn that dogged Labour for much of this decade.

It was good old Bill English of course, who put the party in this fix, by doing so much to alienate National from all its potential coalition partners of significance. One of the bright spots for Bridges is that the political landscape in New Zealand – after 25 years of MMP– is looking more and more like an FPP environment, dominated by the two major parties. If Winston Peters retires during this term, New Zealand First will almost certainly vanish from Parliament. National could well be hoping it can win 50 per cent of the vote all on its own. Peter Dunne is not the only observer who sees that as being a faint hope.