House market shift favours buyers

House prices are still high, but the market seems to be at a pivot point. Joanna Davis finds out if it’s possible to get a bargain if you buy now.

New Zealand house prices are still skyhigh, but the tide is turning. ANZ economists are now predicting a 10% decline in house prices this year, up from January’s forecast of a 7% fall.

Of course, interest rates are rising at the same time, so homeownership is still no walk in the park.

We asked the experts, and those house hunting, whether it’s a good time to buy right now, and if so, how home buyers can get the best deal in this kind of market.

Gemma Ellis, an accounting student, and her partner, Shavhan Harris, a builder, are looking to buy a home costing up to $400,000 in Invercargill this year.

With house prices dropping, is it a good time to buy?

‘‘What I’ve learned from accounting is the main concern is a significant change in the local environment.

‘‘For Invercargill, this change would be [the aluminium smelter at] Tiwai Point closing, as peoplewould lose their jobs and move to places with other work, potentially flooding the housing market and dropping prices. So, for us, the local marketmatters more than the nationalmarket.

‘‘We also decided to buy now as a new mall is being built which is due to finish and open by the end of next year.

‘‘Thiswill mean an increase in jobs and more people moving to fill those positions, so prices will rise. Wewanted to get in before this.

‘‘So in short, yes, it’s still a good time for us because of these local changes, especially since the bank we’re goingwith has fixed rates.’’

Jen Baird

Would you advise other first-home buyers to wait to see if prices drop further to try to get a bargain?

‘‘No, I would tell them to look at their local economy and if there are any large changes looming that would affect the need or want for housing.

‘‘I’d also pay attention to legislation changes, like limits on rental properties and capital gains tax. Basically, learn some economics and understand the changes.

‘‘If you get [mortgage] preapproval andwant to wait, then you’re in a better position to jump when it happens.’’

Do you wish you had bought 18 months ago?

‘‘We weren’t together then, so we didn’t have an opportunity to buy as it’s near impossible to do it alone. We have a good understanding and trust of each other, but we’re still going to do a prenup [prenuptial or contracting-out agreement] because we both know that sometimes it hits the fan.’’

Shavhan Harris and Gemma Ellis aim to buy a house in Invercargill within six months. They plan to spend between $300,000 and $400,000 on a three-bedroom place.