Auckland poised to hit 1.5m

Tomorrow Auckland’s birthing units will be waiting, poised to witness the arrival of a milestone: Auckland’s 1.5 millionth resident.

Of course, it might in fact be a new immigrant rather than a baby who chalks the population up to that landmark, and it might not happen tomorrow, but either way the face of New Zealand is changing. Projections show that by 2021, for every 100 people in Auckland, 53 will be European, 27 will be of Asian heritage, 17 will be Pacific Islanders, and 12 will be Maori.

Statistics New Zealand senior demographer Kim Dunstan said this did not necessarily mean the rest of New Zealand would reflect the same kind of melting pot. ‘‘Auckland does have slightly higher birth rates than other regions, and partly that reflects a younger population.

‘‘And of course fertility rates are generally higher for the Maori and Pacific populations than they are for Asian and European populations. Migration is also an important contributor to growth, particularly in Auckland.’’

Auckland Chinese community leader Kai Luey said New Zealand’s open spaces and the clean environment attracted people of Asian heritage. Auckland was particularly popular, as it offered a metropolitan lifestyle with a decent amount of living space, he said.

Asian people brought with them a culture of hard work and planning, and possibly even the answer to the ‘‘brain drain’’ phenomenon, Mr Luey said.

To predict the future, statisticians study past censuses, and use assumptions about birth rates, death rates and migration.