China the key to diplomacy in North Korea

The world looked on with a sense of impending doom as North Korea’s latest test missile soared over Japan this week.

The missile plummeted harmlessly into the Pacific Ocean but North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s message to international spectators was clear – we have nukes and the means to deploy them.

The problems on the Korean Peninsula may seem far away to most New Zealanders but North Korea’s threats have recently extended to Australia, which was accused of backing United States plans to ‘‘stifle’’ and ‘‘isolate’’ the hermit kingdom.

North Korea may currently only have the capacity to strike northern Australia, but that will be cold comfort to the people of Darwin and the Northern Territory. New Zealand’s relationship with its closest neighbour may have cooled of late but it is obvious who it would back in such a conflict. The North Koreans would likely view an allegiance to Australia as a threat, which may put New Zealand’s shores in their sights. North Korea’s continued belligerence has fuelled calls for military intervention before the rogue state can fully develop its nuclear capabilities.

The country’s reputation as a repressive nation that browbeats its citizens into blind devotion towards its ‘supreme leader’ hasn’t won it many fans, so there is support for such a strike. But military action would be extremely destabilising for the region, even if it was conventional warfare.

A coalition force that overthrew the North Korean regime would still face entrenched pockets of resistance from brainwashed partisans and political zealots. Such resistance has the danger of turning a ‘‘liberated’’ North Korea into the next Iraq or Afghanistan – not an exciting prospect for any occupying force. Many of the 25 million North Koreans might also look to flee to South Korea or China to avoid any conflict, which would create further tensions in the region. China would not be happy to see a conflict fought on its doorstep, especially if it resulted in a Us-led coalition being based there. But China is also the key to a diplomatic resolution. The North Koreans can flex their muscles all they like but further trade sanctions from China would be catastrophic to their economy. Jong Un may be a despot who many would like to see dethroned, but, at least in the short term, it would be preferable to handle his indiscretions without mass bloodshed and regional disarray.